Tornado Warning 68, NWS Des Moines, IA

245 
WWUS53 KDMX 021910
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
210 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

IAC017-021920-
/O.EXP.KDMX.TO.W.0068.000000T0000Z-260702T1915Z/
Bremer IA-
210 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BREMER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
215 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
northeastern Iowa.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Des Moines.

LAT...LON 4268 9215 4277 9216 4281 9208 4269 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 238DEG 19KT 4275 9203 

$$

Fowle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another hot and humid day is in store for Iowa, with highs in
  the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices nearing 100
  degrees.
- Storm chances return, with the most likely window overnight
  tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue with some limited relief from the
heat. Ongoing convection early this morning will help limit
temperatures, particularly across northern Iowa. High temperatures
across the state are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s. The
continued abundance of gulf moisture will lead to dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s. This will push heat indices near the triple digit
mark, especially in the southern portion of the state. For now, the
Extreme Heat Warning will continue, but will need to be reassessed
later due to potential impacts from overnight thunderstorms.

Today looks to be shower and thunderstorm free as we remain capped.
A shortwave is expected to pass through and a few brief windows
exist for storms to develop in the afternoon and into the evening,
particularly in northwest Iowa. Confidence in widespread development
during this window is low, however, despite ample CAPE (upwards of
2500 J/kg). Shear looks to be pretty limited depending on the model,
although during the daytime hours it looks most favorable in the
north and northwest portions of the state (35-40 kts). Of note, the
HRRR sees this portion of the state as uncapped and is quite
aggressive with convection in the early afternoon and into the
evening. Other models are holding strong with capping. Given how
things have played out with capping the past several days in
addition to potential recovery challenges from overnight convection,
confidence is higher with staying capped through most of the day.

Of higher confidence is an MCS which is expected to move through
Thursday evening and overnight from South Dakota. Some variability
exists here, too. CAMs are split on the placement of the MCS and how
far south it reaches. Similar to what happened a few nights ago, the
Low Level Jet (LLJ) will have kicked in as the MCS enters our area
and will keep the MCS from diving to the south, aided in part by the
ridge which has not yet broken down. Confidence is highest in the
MCS forming and moving through the area, although there is less
confidence in strength as it reaches Iowa. Should the MCS reach our
area, guidance points at the potential for gusts ranging from 60-70
mph. Guidance is much more split on how far east the potential for
damaging winds will be.

The final piece of the never-ending puzzle is the threat for heavy
rain. Precipitation chances are once again highest across northern
Iowa. Widespread flooding concerns are quite limited for the moment.
That said, PWAT values are hovering around 2" and repeated heavy
rainfall over the same general areas would lead to the potential for
localized flooding concerns.

Moving into Friday, there is potential for it to be active once
again in the evening and overnight. Initially, it looks like there
is more potential for an overnight MCS, but the formation of this
MCS depends on atmospheric recovery following morning convection
farther to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

As we get into Friday and the holiday weekend, uncertainty increases
given so many convective scenarios that will play out prior.
However, the upper level pattern will be trending more zonal
with continued moisture advection and warm temperatures working
up into the state. This pattern will be conducive for continued
rain and thunderstorm chances persisting into the weekend and
potentially the Independence Day holiday. It seems unlikely the
state of Iowa will be completely spared from thunderstorms
Friday into Saturday. Therefore, the most important takeaway is
to stay tuned to the forecast as it will be evolving into the
weekend. The hot and humid temperatures will also persist into
Friday and Saturday. Another heat headline may be needed on
Friday, but given uncertainty of convective trends through the
next 48 hours have decided to hold off during this shift.
Independence Day looks a tad cooler, but will also be driven by
the persistent thunderstorm chances through the end of the week
and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

TAFs are a combination of VFR and MVFR as showers and
thunderstorms are moving across northern Iowa bringing impacts
to KFOD, KMCW and KALO. KDSM and KOTM are spared from the low
CIGS from ongoing convection but diurnal cumulus clouds around
4K ft are starting to develop. Through the remainder of the
afternoon into the overnight, shower and storm chances are
expected to exist but there could be a brief lull in activity
toward 06Z before showers and storms increase in coverage again.
By 14Z, shower and storm chances will start to wane from
northwest to southeast through the end of the period. Any shower
or storm could bring localized gusty and erratic winds; as well
as, brief category reduction.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-035>039.
Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
IAZ059>062-072>075-082>086-092>097.

&&

SHORT TERM...67/DMD
LONG TERM...Dodson
AVIATION...Vorst

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
411 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-030915-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
411 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the area. Please refer
to the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines
for further details.

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across
portions of Iowa today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across
Iowa Friday and a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
across portions of Iowa Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible tonight.

67

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
815 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

IAZ006-007-021345-
Winnebago IA-Worth IA-
815 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WORTH AND NORTHEASTERN
WINNEBAGO COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM CDT...

At 814 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rice Lake, or 11 miles west of Northwood, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northwood, Lake Mills, Emmons, Rice Lake, Joice, Lake Mills Municipal
Airport, Hogsback Wildlife Area, Northwood Municipal, and Rice Lake
State Park.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 209 and 218.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4345 9303 4331 9347 4350 9359 4350 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1314Z 233DEG 41KT 4341 9344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1123 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

IAZ005>007-016-017-025-021715-
Wright IA-Cerro Gordo IA-Kossuth IA-Winnebago IA-Worth IA-Hancock IA-
1123 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WORTH...
NORTHEASTERN WRIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN KOSSUTH...HANCOCK...CERRO GORDO
AND SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...

At 1123 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Britt, or 12 miles southwest of Garner, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail and additional
         heavy rainfall of one to two inches.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Ponding of water on roadways, low visibilities,
         and rises in small streams and creeks.

Locations impacted include...
Mason City, Forest City, Garner, Belmond, Britt, Clear Lake, Eagle
Lake, Mason City Municipal Airport, Ventura, Kanawha, Klemme,
Thornton, Wesley, Fertile, Corwith, Leland, Meservey, Crystal Lake,
Hanlontown, and Swaledale.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 182 and 202.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4310 9307 4291 9346 4291 9350 4289 9350
      4279 9369 4305 9405 4342 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 236DEG 41KT 4298 9380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Fowle

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Mason City          43.14N 93.20W
07/02/2026  E55 MPH          Cerro Gordo        IA   Emergency Mngr

&&

MD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 SE Mason City         43.09N 93.12W
07/02/2026  M72 MPH          Cerro Gordo        IA   Mesonet

            PWS gust with a sustained 58mph.

&&

MD