Tornado Warning 47, NWS Des Moines, IA

947 
WWUS53 KDMX 182347
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
647 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

IAC159-173-190030-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-260519T0030Z/
Ringgold IA-Taylor IA-
647 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
RINGGOLD AND SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 646 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Blockton, or 12
miles southwest of Mount Ayr, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 640pm, a spotter 
         reported a possible rain-wrapped tornado 7 miles southeast 
         of Bedford. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Redding, Benton, Maloy, and Delphos around 650 PM CDT.
  Mount Ayr and Mt Ayr Municipal Airport around 700 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Delphos, Diagonal, Maloy, Mt Ayr Municipal Airport, Benton, Blockton,
Clearfield, and Redding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 9452 4072 9464 4090 9442 4071 9412
      4057 9450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 251DEG 33KT 4064 9446 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

Fowle

329 
WWUS53 KDMX 182359
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
659 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

IAC159-173-190030-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-260519T0030Z/
Ringgold IA-Taylor IA-
659 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
RINGGOLD AND SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 659 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Benton, or 6
miles west of Mount Ayr, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed a tornado just south of 
         Benton at 657pm.  

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Mount Ayr around 705 PM CDT.
  Mt Ayr Municipal Airport around 710 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Delphos, Diagonal, Maloy, Mt Ayr Municipal Airport, Benton, Blockton,
Clearfield, and Redding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4072 9464 4090 9442 4071 9412 4057 9450
      4057 9452
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 231DEG 27KT 4070 9436 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

Fowle

558 
WWUS53 KDMX 190009
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
709 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

IAC173-190019-
/O.CAN.KDMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-260519T0030Z/
Taylor IA-
709 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area.  Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Iowa.

LAT...LON 4074 9442 4082 9429 4071 9412 4063 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 245DEG 39KT 4075 9421 

$$

IAC159-190030-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-260519T0030Z/
Ringgold IA-
709 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
RINGGOLD COUNTY...

At 709 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Mount Ayr, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Ringgold County, including the following locations...
Delphos, Mt Ayr Municipal Airport, and Benton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 9442 4082 9429 4071 9412 4063 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 245DEG 39KT 4075 9421 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

Fowle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
123 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe storms this evening
  into tonight. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are
  also possible as a line of storms moves west to east across
  the state. The highest probability of severe weather will be
  from southwestern into central and south central Iowa.

- Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of flash flooding in extreme
  southwest Iowa this evening into tonight, with a Slight Risk
  (level 2 of 4) across the remainder of our forecast area.
  Flood Watches are in effect from extreme southwest Iowa into
  adjacent parts of Nebraska and Missouri.

- Breezy late tonight into Tuesday, with cooler and drier
  weather through Wednesday. Lows in the 30s north and west
  Wednesday morning.

- Rain chances return in the latter part of the week,
  especially around Thursday night and Friday. Warmer weather
  forecast next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A deep 500 MB trough is digging across the Rockies and western
High Plains this afternoon, with a pronounced vorticity maximum
rounding the base and kicking out over eastern Colorado as a
negatively tilted shortwave that will move northeastward over
NE/IA/SD/MN this evening into early tonight. At the surface, an
elongated inverted trough stretches from an attendant surface
low developing near the TX panhandle northeastward over Kansas
and Iowa, roughly from around Red Oak to Cresco at this time.
West of the trough low stratus clouds have socked in the region
over northwestern Iowa and adjacent states, with limited
insolation reinforcing the developing baroclinic zone/effective
cold front, while east of the trough skies are partly cloudy
with cirrus also streaming overhead, resulting in limited
insolation but combined with south southwesterly flow to promote
modest diurnal warming.

As the 500 MB trough approaches the region this afternoon,
instability will increase to extreme levels over northeastern
Kansas where more clearing has occurred, and explosive
convection is anticipated in that area. The storms will then
propagate and expand northeastward ahead of the trough. Forecast
soundings in our area, especially central to southwestern areas,
depict very strong instability with CAPE values of 3000-4000
J/KG by late afternoon/early evening, along with strong shear as
even 0-500 meter SRH values exceed 200 m2/s2. This environment
will support supercells with all severe weather hazards possible
including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However,
satellite imagery indicates low-level cloud cover is steady to
increasing across much of our area and even into northwest
Missouri, and it remains to be seen how much clearing will
occur. Short-range mesoanalysis reflects this potential for
limited insolation with 0-3 KM CAPE values less than 50 J/KG
through the afternoon. This would limit near-surface stretching
and may somewhat mitigate tornado potential in much of our area.
That being said, if any clearing does reach our area then 0-3 KM
CAPE and surface stretching would increase rapidly, supporting a
heightened tornado threat. At this time it appears this
potential is highest in our southwestern counties and gradually
diminishing to the north and east, however, these trends will
be closely monitored as the day/evening progresses. Even if
tornadoes are limited in our area, elevated supercells
progressing into southern and central Iowa this evening would
still be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind
gusts, and the SPC has maintained an Enhanced severe weather
risk across much of our area accordingly. Once the initial round
of thunderstorms, forced by the 500 MB trough, exits our
eastern/southeastern counties around midnight or so, some
elevated showers/thunderstorms will linger overnight but be
weaker with more limited forcing and instability, and a rapidly
decreasing severe weather threat later tonight.

The aforementioned cold front will be exiting our southeastern
counties by early Tuesday morning, with any lingering elevated
showers or thunderstorms also moving off during the morning.
Behind the boundary, northwest winds will surge and bring
notably cooler weather across the area. Daytime highs Tuesday
will be about 15 degrees lower than today. Meanwhile, gusty
northwest winds spreading in behind the front late tonight will
continue through Tuesday morning as moderate cold air advection,
surface pressure rises, and a relatively tight pressure
gradient work through Iowa. Even then, wind potential is limited
by the shallow nature of the mixed layer, with forecast
soundings indicating top of the ML winds around 25-30 KT during
that time. Winds will then slowly diminish during the afternoon
as the tighter pressure gradient moves eastward and cold air
advection moderates.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

By Tuesday evening a large surface high pressure area will be
building down the northern High Plains and on Tuesday night will
settle across Iowa and Minnesota. This will lead to rapidly
diminishing winds around sunset Tuesday and much cooler
temperatures Tuesday night as winds go light or calm and skies
clear out, especially near the Minnesota border closer to the
center of the high and where chances for high cirrus clouds are
lowest. The result is forecast low temperatures early Wednesday
morning in the mid-to- upper 30s in our northern and western
counties, but any frost potential will be dependent on skies
remaining clear and winds becoming calm. This possibility will
be better assessed tonight and tomorrow.

From Wednesday through the end of this week a weak 500 MB low
will meander across southwestern Canada, with cyclonic flow
extending down across the U.S. Rockies and near Iowa. A series
of shortwave impulses moving through the flow will result in a
return of rain chances for our forecast area. Initially, on
Wednesday, the proximity of the slowly departing surface high
pressure area and associated dry air will inhibit any
precipitation chances. By Thursday atmospheric moisture and
instability will be gradually increasing however, and around
Thursday night and Friday the most pronounced 500 MB trough will
move overhead and bring higher rain chances (50-70%). In wake
of that trough, next weekend, weak subsidence may follow along
with weak surface riding, supporting mostly dry weather and much
lower rain chances (10-20%). Also of note is a consistent
signal for some degree of thermal ridging around Sunday into
early next week, especially from the EC and GEM, lending
confidence to warmer temperatures at the end of the current
7-day forecast. Climate Prediction Center outlooks also support
a likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures heading into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Low stratus clouds are producing IFR ceilings across much of
northwest IA and MVFR ceilings into central IA early this
afternoon. These will eventually spread eastward this evening
and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered
SHRA/TSRA also expected this evening and overnight, with TSRA
most likely between about 00Z and 06Z and SHRA more likely
thereafter. Have attempted to time convective trends and
maintained targeted TEMPO groups for TSRA, but expect
updates/amendments later today. Widespread low ceilings around
FL007-012 then expected later tonight, with winds turning to NW
and increasing behind the front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Trends in flash flood tools suggest an increased risk of flash
flooding from activity this evening into tonight. NWM rapid
onset flooding (ROF) probabilities suggest the greatest risk
will be across our southwest CWA. Soil moisture in that area is
elevated due to heavy rainfall over the past few days. Heavy
rainfall tonight may lead to flash flooding due to decreased
soil capacity, or sheer rainfall intensity, or both. Main
concerns will be in towns, however lower areas including road
dips near creeks and small streams may see some issues as well.
In addition, any flooding will occur mainly during the nighttime
hours, which adds to its potential danger. For these reasons,
we issued a flood watch for some of our southern counties
through Tuesday morning.

Longer term, widespread river flooding is a minimal concern
this week. Some moderate to significant within-bank rises are
possible, however, especially in southern Iowa due to the
combination of recent and potential future heavy rainfall.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch from 5 PM CDT this afternoon through Tuesday
morning for IAZ092>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Lee
HYDROLOGY...Zogg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
418 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
084>086-096-097-192130-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Lucas-Monroe-
Wapello-Appanoose-Davis-
418 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe weather is forecast late this afternoon into this evening
with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes all possible.
The highest risk is over southern Iowa. Non-severe thunderstorms
may linger after midnight.

Heavy rainfall is expected to occur at times with today's severe
storms. Flash flooding concerns are limited mainly to cities and
towns with the risk highest over far southern Iowa.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms return to the forecast at times later Thursday into
this weekend. Any chance of severe weather will be assessed in
the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed tonight. Rainfall reports are also
appreciated.

IAZ081>083-092>095-192130-
Adams-Union-Clarke-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
418 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect for the area tonight.
Please refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

Severe weather is forecast late this afternoon into this evening
with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes all possible.
The highest risk is over southern Iowa. Non-severe thunderstorms
may linger after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms return to the forecast at times later Thursday into
this weekend. Any chance of severe weather will be assessed in
the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed tonight. Rainfall reports are also
appreciated.