Tornado Warning 33, NWS Des Moines, IA

907 
WWUS53 KDMX 162329
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
629 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

IAC173-162338-
/O.CAN.KDMX.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-260517T0000Z/
Taylor IA-
629 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Iowa.

LAT...LON 4069 9446 4077 9446 4081 9421 4065 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 273DEG 13KT 4072 9443 

$$

IAC159-170000-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-260517T0000Z/
Ringgold IA-
629 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL RINGGOLD COUNTY...

At 628 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Maloy, or 10 miles west of Mount Ayr, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Benton around 635 PM CDT.
  Mount Ayr around 650 PM CDT.
  Mt Ayr Municipal Airport around 655 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mt Ayr
Municipal Airport and Benton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4069 9446 4077 9446 4081 9421 4065 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 273DEG 13KT 4072 9443 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Ansorge

744 
WWUS53 KDMX 162348
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
648 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

IAC159-170000-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-260517T0000Z/
Ringgold IA-
648 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
RINGGOLD COUNTY...

At 648 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Benton, or near Mount Ayr, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mount Ayr and Mt Ayr Municipal Airport around 655 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mt Ayr
Municipal Airport and Benton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4068 9439 4074 9437 4075 9421 4065 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 280DEG 15KT 4069 9432 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Ansorge

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
334 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain potential this afternoon
  into the evening, initially over south central Iowa then more
  widespread overnight into Sunday morning.

- Dry and breezy during the day Sunday. Additional storms
  develop in western and northwestern Iowa in the evening, then
  spreading eastward into much of Iowa overnight into Monday.

- One final round of storms expected later Monday into early
  Tuesday morning. Severe weather and heavy rainfall looks
  likley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Current conditions in the central U.S. shows surface low pressure
over Kansas and the Texas & Oklahoma panhandles, advecting warm,
moist air up into southern Iowa. Farther north, a surface high is
working cooler, drier air south and east over Minnesota and northern
Iowa. On the periphery of these two air masses, a gradient of 2000
to 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE has developed from the I-80 corridor and
south, and is co-located with 40 to 50 kts of effective shear. A
subtle wind shift is in place along this region, and is expected to
become the focal point for storms this afternoon and evening.
Guidance has struggled with the placement of this wind shift and the
location of convective initiation still today, with the trend
seeming to be farther and farther south with each round of
guidance. Current consensus is that storms will fire over south
western into south central Iowa within the next few hours,
generally around 21 to 22z. These initial storms will have
access to the highly unstable and deeply sheared environment,
with access to 200+ m2/s2 of SRH within the 0-3 km layer,
supporting rotating updrafts and supercellular storms. DCAPE
values will also be modest, with SPC mesoanalysis implying 1000+
J/kg along southern Iowa. Both of these factors indicate a
potential for severe hail and strong winds with any of the
initial storms that develop. Rotating updrafts will also be
conducive for tornadogenesis, thanks to the 100+ J/kg of 0-3km
CAPE and low LCLs, but the low level wind fields do seem like a
limiting factor. The high 0-3 SRH is almost entirely driven by
the 1 to 3 km layer, while the lowest kilometer exhibits less
favorable easterly winds to the north of the wind shift and
minimal SRH from 0-1 km. That said, the southeasterly winds just
to our south would make for a low level wind field more
favorable for tornado development. Therefore, will need to watch
surface observations closely, as any discrete storms ingesting
that more southeasterly flow could lead to a better chance for
tornadoes.

Storms initially begin discrete this afternoon, but storm motions
along the boundary and the broad area of lift and instability
will lead to many competing updrafts and a conglomeration of
convection through the evening. This should mostly limit the
severe risk for our area, as we become cut off from the
uncontaminated warm sector. An east west oriented area of rain
and thunder will develop, likely over southern Iowa into
northern Missouri, resulting in a few hours of heavy rain within
the same areas that saw the initial storms. Healthy
precipitable water values in the 1.4" to 1.5" range will allow
for heavy rainfall in these areas. This, in conjunction with the
long duration of training storms, will lead to a swath of
higher rainfall amounts. Earlier this morning, this swath was
showing a widespread 2 to 3 inches of rainfall with some
embedded pockets of 5 inches or more. This afternoon, this same
signal still exists, but the southerly trend in guidance has
been pushing the heaviest swath along the Iowa/Missouri border
and southward. This should allow the heaviest rain to avoid the
Des Moines metro areas, and fall over more rural areas where
conditions have been dry and more capacity exists. That said, if
any of these pockets of heavy rainfall falls over a more urban
area/town, ponding on roads may still occur. Likewise, if the
bullseye of 6 to 7" that has shown up in a few CAMs occurs, even
in rural areas, some localized ponding or flooding could be a
concern. This has prompted a slight risk for excessive rainfall
from the weather prediction center over southern Iowa, although
the highest likelihood at this time still looks to be south of
our area.

Finally, as we get later into the evening, the guidance continues to
prog an MCS coming out of Nebraska and into western Iowa overnight
tonight into early Sunday morning. This MCS will roughly track along
the east west oriented area of rain as it lifts northward overnight,
leading to a roughly east northeasterly track across the area. Model
wind gust output and storm modes would suggest this north south
oriented line with the MCS could produce severe winds across
Nebraska but generally diminishes upon reaching Iowa early
Sunday morning. However, models are notoriously bad at modeling
MCSs so it's certainly within the realm of possibility that
these winds persist into Iowa as well. Fortunately, this time of
night will be lending itself to decoupling and more elevated
storms. Likewise, this will be moving into a fairly worked over
and less stable environment. Therefore, a diminishing trend
looks likely through Sunday morning, but not ruling out some
strong winds as it initially moves in.

The rain and thunderstorm activity moves out through Sunday morning,
with dry conditions expected over much of the state during the day
on Sunday. Relatively strong capping will inhibit the unstable
environment during the day, with storm development primarily
occurring in the evening and overnight hours. That said, gusty
conditions develop during the day Sunday across most of Iowa as
stronger winds aloft move into the area. Winds of 20 to 30 mph are
expected, with gusts nearing 40 mph possible at times.

Yet another round of thunderstorms will move into western Iowa in
the late evening to overnight hours Sunday as the surface low lifts
northeastward through Nebraska into western Iowa. This synoptic lift
and weakening cap will allow storms to go over northwestern Iowa,
with potential for more supercells capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes. That said, by the time these storms
look to arrive in our forecast area, the instability will be
diminishing and storms congealing into a line. Therefore, the
main tornado threat will be over far western and northwestern
Iowa Sunday evening, with mostly a wind threat farther eastward
into Iowa through the overnight hours. Driven by the low level
jet, storms persist overnight into early Monday, but the severe
risk looks fairly isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The encore system will lift through the area on Monday, bringing the
potential for widespread storms and heavy rainfall. Severe weather
looks likely with this system, as the parameter space boasts 60+
dewpoints, very unstable, surface based conditions, and a good
amount of kinematic support along the cool front passing west to
east through the area. All severe hazards will be possible,
including hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Strong moisture
transport will also lift into the warm sector of the Monday system,
bringing plenty of liquid into the area. Storms should be fairly
progressive along the cold front, but localized ponding or flash
flooding is certainly possible, especially in areas that receive
rainfall tonight and Sunday night as well. Likewise, more water
being added to local rivers could lead to in-bank rises through next
week. We then see a brief break in the active pattern through the
middle of the week, with milder temperatures overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Thunderstorm development is expected again this afternoon and
evening, beginning generally around 23z to 00z. This initial
development will be fairly scattered, and is trending a bit
farther south. For this reason, have covered the
afternoon/early evening activity with PROB30 groups rather than
prevailing. A prolonged period of showers and storms will
continue over southern Iowa into the evening, and if trends move
storms back farther north into central Iowa, it's possible
durations may need to be adjusted and expanded in TAFs,
particularly at KDSM and KOTM. Later in the night, a line of
storms will move into western Iowa and track east northeastward
through the state, potentially impacting all sites. Lowered
ceilings will also develop with tonights activity, down to MVFR
and potentially IFR in northern Iowa. Precipitation moves out
Sunday morning but breezy, south southeasterly winds then
develop during the day.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Dodson
LONG TERM...Dodson
AVIATION...Dodson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
243 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-171945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
243 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms today.
All modes of severe storms are possible. Storms are expected to
develop in south central Iowa late this afternoon, continuing
across Iowa overnight through Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected to occur at times this evening into
early Sunday, largely over far southern Iowa. Flash flooding
concerns are limited, with the highest risk in urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

An active weather pattern will continue Sunday and Monday, with
chances for severe thunderstorms both days. Details of timing,
location, and hazard types will be better determined in the coming
days as each day of storms will impact details of the next.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times through Monday.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
518 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Hail             4 N New Market          40.80N 94.89W
05/16/2026  E1.00 Inch       Taylor             IA   Trained Spotter

&&

Ansorge

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
538 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Hail             7 NNW Gravity           40.86N 94.77W
05/16/2026  E1.75 Inch       Taylor             IA   Trained Spotter

            Via Spotter Network.

&&

Ansorge

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
550 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     Hail             2 N Gravity             40.79N 94.74W
05/16/2026  E2.00 Inch       Taylor             IA   Trained Spotter

            Via Spotter Network.

&&

Ansorge

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
557 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     Tornado          1 SW Gravity            40.75N 94.76W
05/16/2026                   Taylor             IA   Trained Spotter

            Via Spotter Network.

&&

Ansorge

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
600 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     Tornado          1 SE Gravity            40.75N 94.73W
05/16/2026                   Taylor             IA   Storm Chaser

&&

Ansorge