River Flood Warning 9, NWS Des Moines, IA

591 
WGUS83 KDMX 041510
FLSDMX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1010 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Black Hawk Creek at Hudson affecting Black Hawk County.

  Ioway Creek at Ames Lincoln Way affecting Story County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  South Skunk River at Colfax affecting Polk, Jasper and Marion 
  Counties.

  South Skunk River near Ames US 30 affecting Polk and Story 
  Counties.

  Fourmile Creek at Des Moines Easton Blvd affecting Polk County.

  South Skunk River near Ames W Riverside Rd affecting Story County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For the latest stream observations and forecasts refer to 
weather.gov/desmoines/water.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

River forecasts include observed precipitation plus forecast 
precipitation over the next 24 hours.



&&

IAC099-125-153-051115-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260708T0815Z/
/CFXI4.2.ER.260704T1207Z.260707T0000Z.260708T0215Z.NO/
1010 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...The South Skunk River at Colfax, or from the Jasper-Polk 
  County Line to the Jasper-Marion County line.

* WHEN...Until early Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Water affects Iowa 14 south of Newton.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 18.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.1
    feet Monday evening. It will then fall below flood stage late
    Tuesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4141 9287 4159 9316 4168 9335 4176 9335
      4170 9309 4151 9287


$$

IAC153-169-051115-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260705T1950Z/
/AESI4.1.ER.260704T0826Z.260704T1800Z.260705T1350Z.NO/
1010 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The South Skunk River near Ames US 30, or from Ioway Creek 
  to the Polk-Jasper County line.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Water affects the Shady Grove Trailer Park 
  located at 1006 S Dayton Ave as well as the railroad just 
  northeast of Cambridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 23.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 23.4
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 21.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4201 9364 4201 9356 4176 9335 4168 9335
      4180 9352


$$

IAC169-042330-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-260704T2330Z/
/AMWI4.1.ER.260704T0902Z.260704T1330Z.260704T1730Z.NO/
1010 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The Ioway Creek at Ames Lincoln Way, or from the 
  Story-Boone County line to the South Skunk River.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 10.4 feet, Water affects lowlands around S 4th St.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 10.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this afternoon and continue falling to 4.4 feet tomorrow
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4207 9370 4211 9370 4209 9366 4205 9363
      4201 9356 4201 9364 4203 9367


$$

IAC013-051115-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-260705T1912Z/
/HUDI4.1.ER.260704T1115Z.260704T1800Z.260705T1312Z.NO/
1010 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The Black Hawk Creek at Hudson, or from the Black 
  Hawk-Grundy County line to the Cedar River in Waterloo.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 15.0 feet, Water affects Iowa 58 as well as Fletcher 
  Ave and Ridgeway Ave at US 63 in Waterloo. Water also affects 
  Watters Rd. Some residential evacuations may be needed.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 15.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 15.4
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4248 9228 4235 9247 4235 9253 4242 9253
      4253 9238


$$

IAC153-051115-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260705T2030Z/
/DFMI4.2.ER.260703T1444Z.260703T1900Z.260705T1430Z.NO/
1010 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...The Fourmile Creek at Des Moines Easton Blvd, or from 
  below Interstate 80 to the Des Moines River.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Water affects businesses and apartments 
  east of E 33rd St near E Douglas Ave...E Euclid Ave and Hubbell 
  Ave.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 15.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 15.4 feet late this
    morning. It will then fall this evening. It will rise to 14.3
    feet late this evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 12.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4161 9357 4167 9358 4167 9352 4156 9350
      4156 9355


$$

IAC169-051115-
/O.CON.KDMX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260705T1545Z/
/AMEI4.1.ER.260704T0753Z.260704T0930Z.260705T0945Z.NO/
1010 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The South Skunk River near Ames W Riverside Rd, or from 
  Keigley Branch near 170th Street to Ioway Creek.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13.9 feet, Water affects Westech Engineering located 
  at 600 Arrasmith Trl.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 12.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this afternoon to a crest of 13.0 feet just after
    midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage late
    tonight.
  - Flood stage is 12.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4211 9361 4211 9355 4206 9358 4201 9356
      4201 9364 4207 9365


$$

Zogg

799 
WGUS83 KDMX 042157
FLSDMX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
457 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  South Skunk River at Colfax affecting Jasper, Polk and Marion 
  Counties.

  South Skunk River near Ames US 30 affecting Story and Polk 
  Counties.

  Fourmile Creek at Des Moines Easton Blvd affecting Polk County.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Iowa...

  South Skunk River near Ames W Riverside Rd affecting Story County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

For the latest stream observations and forecasts refer to 
weather.gov/desmoines/water.

River forecasts include observed precipitation plus forecast 
precipitation over the next 24 hours.



&&

IAC169-042300-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260704T2157Z/
/AMEI4.1.ER.260704T0753Z.260704T0930Z.260704T1304Z.NO/
457 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the South Skunk River near Ames W Riverside Rd, or from Keigley 
  Branch near 170th Street to Ioway Creek.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 10.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 4.5 feet
    Saturday, July 11.
  - Flood stage is 12.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4211 9361 4211 9355 4206 9358 4201 9356
      4201 9364 4207 9365


$$

IAC099-125-153-051800-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260707T1245Z/
/CFXI4.2.ER.260704T1207Z.260706T0000Z.260707T0645Z.NO/
457 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...The South Skunk River at Colfax, or from the Jasper-Polk 
  County Line to the Jasper-Marion County line.

* WHEN...Until Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 19.0 feet, Water affects the earthen levee west of 
  town near the sewage disposal area. Evacuations may occur on the 
  northwest side of Colfax. Flooding occurs in Reasnor.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:45 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 18.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 19.5
    feet tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4141 9287 4159 9316 4168 9335 4176 9335
      4170 9309 4151 9287


$$

IAC153-169-051545-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260705T1536Z/
/AESI4.1.ER.260704T0826Z.260704T1800Z.260705T0936Z.NO/
457 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The South Skunk River near Ames US 30, or from Ioway Creek 
  to the Polk-Jasper County line.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Water affects the Shady Grove Trailer Park 
  located at 1006 S Dayton Ave as well as the railroad just 
  northeast of Cambridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 23.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 23.1
    feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage late
    tonight.
  - Flood stage is 21.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4201 9364 4201 9356 4176 9335 4168 9335
      4180 9352


$$

IAC153-051800-
/O.CON.KDMX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260705T2030Z/
/DFMI4.2.ER.260703T1444Z.260703T1900Z.260705T1430Z.NO/
457 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...The Fourmile Creek at Des Moines Easton Blvd, or from 
  below Interstate 80 to the Des Moines River.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 14.3 feet, Flooding is likely in the dog park on 
  Hubbell Ave.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:30 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 14.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is falling late this afternoon, but is
    expected to slightly rise to 14.3 feet late this evening. It
    will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 12.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4161 9357 4167 9358 4167 9352 4156 9350
      4156 9355


$$

Ansorge

012 
WGUS83 KDMX 050302
FLSDMX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1002 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  South Skunk River at Colfax affecting Jasper, Polk and Marion 
  Counties.

  South Skunk River near Ames US 30 affecting Story and Polk 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For the latest stream observations and forecasts refer to 
weather.gov/desmoines/water.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

River forecasts include observed precipitation plus forecast 
precipitation over the next 24 hours.



&&

IAC099-125-153-052315-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260707T1100Z/
/CFXI4.2.ER.260704T1207Z.260706T0000Z.260707T0500Z.NO/
1002 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...The South Skunk River at Colfax, or from the Jasper-Polk 
  County Line to the Jasper-Marion County line.

* WHEN...Until Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 19.0 feet, Water affects the earthen levee west of 
  town near the sewage disposal area. Evacuations may occur on the 
  northwest side of Colfax. Flooding occurs in Reasnor.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 18.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 19.4
    feet tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4141 9287 4159 9316 4168 9335 4176 9335
      4170 9309 4151 9287


$$

IAC153-169-051300-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260705T1248Z/
/AESI4.1.ER.260704T0826Z.260704T1800Z.260705T0648Z.NO/
1002 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The South Skunk River near Ames US 30, or from Ioway Creek 
  to the Polk-Jasper County line.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Water affects the Shady Grove Trailer Park 
  located at 1006 S Dayton Ave as well as the railroad just 
  northeast of Cambridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 22.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    just after midnight tonight and continue falling to 12.3 feet
    Saturday, July 11.
  - Flood stage is 21.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4201 9364 4201 9356 4176 9335 4168 9335
      4180 9352


$$

Ansorge

887 
WGUS83 KDMX 050759
FLSDMX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
259 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  South Skunk River near Ames US 30 affecting Story and Polk 
  Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Black Hawk Creek at Hudson affecting Black Hawk County.

  South Skunk River at Colfax affecting Marion, Jasper and Polk 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For the latest stream observations and forecasts refer to 
weather.gov/desmoines/water.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

River forecasts include observed precipitation plus forecast 
precipitation over the next 24 hours.



&&

IAC153-169-051445-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260705T1440Z/
/AESI4.1.ER.260704T0826Z.260704T1800Z.260705T0840Z.NO/
259 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...The South Skunk River near Ames US 30, or from Ioway Creek 
  to the Polk-Jasper County line.

* WHEN...Until late this morning.

* IMPACTS...At 21.0 feet, Water affects S 16th St. Water also 
  affects the sports complex along the river south of US 30.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 21.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    early this morning and continue falling to 12.3 feet Saturday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 21.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4201 9364 4201 9356 4176 9335 4168 9335
      4180 9352


$$

IAC099-125-153-060400-
/O.CON.KDMX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260707T1100Z/
/CFXI4.2.ER.260704T1207Z.260706T0000Z.260707T0500Z.NO/
259 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...The South Skunk River at Colfax, or from the Jasper-Polk 
  County Line to the Jasper-Marion County line.

* WHEN...Until Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 19.0 feet, Water affects the earthen levee west of 
  town near the sewage disposal area. Evacuations may occur on the 
  northwest side of Colfax. Flooding occurs in Reasnor.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:45 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 18.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 19.4
    feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early
    Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4141 9287 4159 9316 4168 9335 4176 9335
      4170 9309 4151 9287


$$

IAC013-051930-
/O.CON.KDMX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-260705T1930Z/
/HUDI4.1.ER.260704T1115Z.260705T0015Z.260705T1330Z.NO/
259 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The Black Hawk Creek at Hudson, or from the Black 
  Hawk-Grundy County line to the Cedar River in Waterloo.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Water closes Ranchero Rd in Waterloo. Some 
  residential evacuations may occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:45 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 15.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this morning and continue falling to 8.4 feet Saturday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4248 9228 4235 9247 4235 9253 4242 9253
      4253 9238


$$

Ansorge

970 
WGUS83 KDMX 051245
FLSDMX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
745 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Iowa...

  South Skunk River near Ames US 30 affecting Story and Polk 
  Counties.

IAC153-169-051345-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260705T1245Z/
/AESI4.1.ER.260704T0826Z.260704T1800Z.260705T0955Z.NO/
745 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the South Skunk River near Ames US 30, or from Ioway Creek to the 
  Polk-Jasper County line.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 21.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 12.3 feet
    Saturday evening.
  - Flood stage is 21.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4201 9364 4201 9356 4176 9335 4168 9335
      4180 9352


$$

Donavon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1102 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue at times through the overnight
  hours. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main
  concerns, although hail will also be possible with stronger
  storms.

- Additional heavy rainfall tonight could lead to new or
  worsening flash flood conditions, especially in areas that
  received significant rainfall last night.

- Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms possible on
  Independence Day, mainly over northern Iowa.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Forecast remains on track. Opted to end the Extreme Heat Warning
early as temperatures and heat indices have fallen below
criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

After what was a very wet night and morning for central Iowa, we are
seeing a bit of a break in the activity today before more storms
develop again overnight. The environment left over from this
morning's storms is quickly recovering thanks to mostly clear skies
and persistent warm, moist air advecting into the area. This will
lead to more destabilization, generally along a mesoscale boundary
with an instability gradient setting from west to east over central
Iowa. There isn't much for synoptic forcing over Iowa this
afternoon, but as we approach peak heating, convergence along the
boundary may be sufficient to develop storms. The general timing for
this initiation looks to be around 23z to 00z at the earliest,
although short range guidance is a bit uncertain on when these
diurnally driven storms will develop, if at all. Something to
watch that's developing as this is being written, is the MCS
currently over Missouri producing a cloud shield and likely
limiting heating in Iowa. This could limit initiation later
today. That said, this activity find enough lift to take off
late this afternoon and into the evening, it will have access to
3000 to 4000 J/kg of CAPE, although wind shear will be modest
around 30 kts. Therefore, severe weather is certainly possible
if any stronger storms develop an organized updraft. Damaging
winds and hail will be the main concerns, with a low risk for
tornadoes given poor low level flow. Of similar concern will be
the potential for heavy rainfall in a moisture rich environment
combined with training storms over areas that had already
received heavy rainfall last night. This could exacerbate
ongoing flood conditions, or lead to new flooding in areas where
soils are saturated from last night's rain (primarily over
central into northeastern Iowa).

As we get later into the evening, the 850 mb jet will begin to ramp
up, nosing into southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. This
will interact with the boundary draped across the region, developing
storms to our west which are progged to grow upscale into a
mesoscale convective complex. Expectation would be for this complex
to ride along the nose of the low level jet and with the instability
gradient, tracking eastward into Iowa. This system could bring some
damaging wind gusts through the state overnight into early Saturday
morning. Likewise, heavy rainfall would be likely with this system,
potentially adding to the rainfall amounts from any previous
convection. Like the earlier, diurnally driven storms, CAMs are
struggling to get a handle on this complex, but it has been
fairly persistent from run-to-run, just with differing paths and
intensity. If no storms occur earlier in the night, it stands
to reason there will be a pocket of untapped air over Iowa that
this MCS could take advantage of, leading to a more intense
system. Conversely, if convection is ongoing much of the
evening, the atmosphere may be more worked over in central Iowa,
pushing the system farther south. Therefore, like much of the
activity this week, how this second wave plays out will be
dependent on the first. Aside from the severe chances, this MCS
will bring another shot of heavier rainfall, albeit more
progressive than the earlier storms. This would be additive to
any rain that occurs this afternoon. Total rainfall expected
this evening may range quite a bit depending on if we get both
waves, or just one or the other. That said, expectation is for
at least an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain falling over most
areas tonight, with some localized amounts of over 3 inches
possible. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday
morning, and a number of area rivers continue to see rises
today. For more information on the hydrological concerns, see
the hydro discussion below.

The overnight storms generally depart the area early Saturday
morning, pushing the boundary to the south of Iowa. The upper level
pattern will also be transitioning to more of a zonal flow, and
losing some of the persistent low to mid level moisture advection as
flow flips to more west and northwesterly through the day. That
said, a shortwave aloft dropping out of Minnesota may still interact
with the residual moist and unstable air mass in Iowa, producing
some showers and thunderstorms in northern Iowa on Saturday.
Fortunately, wind shear is negligible, meaning this activity would
likely be pulsey and less organized. Therefore, the severe risk
seems minimal on Saturday, again assuming the surface boundary
pushes out of the area Saturday morning. If it doesn't,
diurnally driven storms could once again develop over southern
Iowa Saturday afternoon, but this seems like an outlier
scenario. Long story short, while the picture is becoming
clearer for Independence Day, make sure to keep an eye on the
forecast and radar on Saturday, especially if you have any
outdoor plans!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Aside from a few scattered showers at times, we generally get a
break from the persistent thunderstorm chances Sunday into Monday,
as northerly flow and increasing pressure at the surface fully takes
over influence of Iowa. Temperatures respond accordingly, with
relatively cooler highs in the mid 80s. Widespread precipitation
chances look to return through the middle of next week, but more on
that once we are through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR TAFs are prevailing across all TAF sites with this issuance.
Showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage and
remain through much of the overnight. Showers and storms will
likely bring lowered CIGs, low-end VFR/upper-end MVFR; as well
as, gusty and erratic winds. Showers and storms will gradually
start to taper off from west to east through the morning before
exiting entirely by Saturday afternoon. Outside of convection,
winds will be generally light and variable.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ023>028-033>039-
044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086.

&&

UPDATE...Vorst
SHORT TERM...Dodson
LONG TERM...Dodson
AVIATION...Vorst

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
406 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

IAZ004>007-015>017-092>097-042115-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
406 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

There is a chance for showers and storms this evening into the
overnight hours. There is a Slight risk for severe weather for
most of the area for storms arriving tonight, and an Enhanced Risk
in the far west.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional storm chances return Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-042115-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
406 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

A flood watch is in effect for the area tonight. Please refer to
the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

There is a chance for showers and storms this evening into the
overnight hours. There is a Slight risk for severe weather for
most of the area for storms arriving tonight, and an Enhanced Risk
in the far west.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional storm chances return Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
248 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSW Knoxville         41.30N 93.11W
07/04/2026  M62 MPH          Marion             IA   AWOS

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
306 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ENE Searsboro         41.60N 92.65W
07/04/2026  M59 MPH          Poweshiek          IA   Mesonet

            PWS gust.

&&

MD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
321 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     Flash Flood      1 NE Newton             41.70N 93.03W
07/04/2026                   Jasper             IA   Public

            Street flooded and storm drainage
            overflowing.

&&

MD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
326 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 AM     Flash Flood      3 WNW Mitchellville     41.68N 93.40W
07/04/2026                   Polk               IA   Broadcast Media

            State radio relayed flooded interstate.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
327 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 AM     Flash Flood      3 ESE Ames              42.00N 93.57W
07/04/2026                   Story              IA   Broadcast Media

            State radio relayed flooded on-ramp.

&&

MD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
340 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 AM     Flash Flood      2 N Ames                42.05N 93.62W
07/04/2026                   Story              IA   Public

            Roads flooded and people stranded.

&&

MD