River Flood Warning 2, NWS Des Moines, IA

490 
WGUS83 KDMX 070211
FLSDMX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
911 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Cedar River at Cedar Falls affecting Black Hawk County.

  Iowa River near Tama Hwy E49 affecting Tama and Poweshiek 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For the latest stream observations and forecasts refer to 
weather.gov/desmoines/water.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

River forecasts include observed precipitation plus forecast 
precipitation over the next 24 hours.



&&

IAC013-072215-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260408T1000Z/
/CEDI4.1.ER.260405T2022Z.260406T1400Z.260408T0400Z.NO/
911 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The Cedar River at Cedar Falls, or from the West Fork 
  Cedar River to the Cedar Falls-Waterloo city limits.

* WHEN...Until early Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 89.7 feet, Water affects the road at 1712 and 1118 
  Cottage Row Rd.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM CDT Monday the stage was 89.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow evening and continue falling to 82.8 feet
    Monday, April 13.
  - Flood stage is 89.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4256 9238 4249 9247 4258 9255 4262 9255
      4262 9241


$$

IAC157-171-072215-
/O.CON.KDMX.FL.W.0002.260407T1200Z-260408T0600Z/
/TMAI4.1.ER.260407T1200Z.260407T1200Z.260408T0000Z.NO/
911 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO EARLY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The Iowa River near Tama Hwy E49, or from Timber Creek 
  near Le Grand to Salt Creek near Belle Plaine.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning to early Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 12.5 feet, Backwater from the Iowa River covers 
  portions of Business 30 and S Prospect Dr in Toledo.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 12.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12.5
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow evening.
  - Flood stage is 12.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4197 9277 4208 9277 4192 9230 4181 9230


$$

Jimenez

477 
WGUS83 KDMX 071000
FLSDMX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
500 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Iowa River near Tama Hwy E49 affecting Poweshiek and Tama 
  Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Cedar River at Cedar Falls affecting Black Hawk County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For the latest stream observations and forecasts refer to 
weather.gov/desmoines/water.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

River forecasts include observed precipitation plus forecast 
precipitation over the next 24 hours.



&&

IAC157-171-080600-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0002.260408T0000Z-260408T0600Z/
/TMAI4.1.ER.260408T0000Z.260408T0000Z.260408T0000Z.NO/
500 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO JUST AFTER 
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The Iowa River near Tama Hwy E49, or from Timber Creek 
  near Le Grand to Salt Creek near Belle Plaine.

* WHEN...From this evening to just after midnight tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 12.5 feet, Backwater from the Iowa River covers 
  portions of Business 30 and S Prospect Dr in Toledo.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 12.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12.5
    feet this evening.
  - Flood stage is 12.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4197 9277 4208 9277 4192 9230 4181 9230


$$

IAC013-080600-
/O.CON.KDMX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260408T1000Z/
/CEDI4.1.ER.260405T2022Z.260406T1400Z.260408T0400Z.NO/
500 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...The Cedar River at Cedar Falls, or from the West Fork 
  Cedar River to the Cedar Falls-Waterloo city limits.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 89.7 feet, Water affects the road at 1712 and 1118 
  Cottage Row Rd.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:45 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 89.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this evening and continue falling to 82.8 feet Monday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 89.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4256 9238 4249 9247 4258 9255 4262 9255
      4262 9241


$$

Ansorge

218 
WGUS83 KDMX 071303
FLSDMX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
803 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Iowa River near Tama Hwy E49 affecting Poweshiek and Tama 
  Counties.

IAC157-171-071415-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0002.260408T0000Z-260407T1303Z/
/TMAI4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
803 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Iowa River near Tama Hwy E49, or from Timber Creek near Le 
  Grand to Salt Creek near Belle Plaine.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 12.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12.3
    feet this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 12.5 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4197 9277 4208 9277 4192 9230 4181 9230


$$

Hagenhoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
624 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in an accumulating, narrow snowband tonight
  into Tuesday morning, primarily over southwest into parts of
  south central Iowa. Light snow and rain then drifts north
  through Tuesday, but any new accumulations are minimal farther
  north.

- Windy Wednesday with showers and a few storms along a cold
  front late in the day into Thursday. No apparent widespread
  severe risk.

- Signal remains for a wet pattern and threat of heavy rainfall,
  though trends are delaying this until later in the weekend
  into early the following week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

GOES-East upper level water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough
over the eastern half of the CONUS while ridging is over the
western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front has settled
southward through much of the state with low level cold air
advection ongoing. This northerly flow is allowing areas of low
level stratus clouds to drop southward out of Minnesota into
northern Iowa per Nighttime Microphysics RGB. There are
additional clouds in the mid-levels, which are streaming from
South Dakota and parts of Nebraska into western Iowa. Light
radar returns are not reaching the ground per surface
observations with cloud bases generally above 9000 feet at this
time. Today, breezy winds averaging 10 to around 15 mph will
prevail under a partly to mostly cloudy sky with a surface high
pressure tracking into the western Great Lakes while the surface
cold front settles into Kansas and Missouri. There will be an
attempt to produce light rain or snow over parts of the western
half of the state as weak low level theta-e advection begins.
However, this precipitation will be fighting against low level
dry air being funneled in from the high passing to the
northeast. With expectations that the dry air will be
detrimental to the precipitation, have trimmed and lowered PoPs
from initial National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance.

As we head into tonight, the low level theta-e advection will
intensify as a strengthening frontogenetical (fgen) band in the 850-
700mb layer sets up a precipitation axis over southwest into south
central Iowa into northeastern Missouri. The high to the north will
tightening the northern edge of the precipitation shield as the dry
air eats away at saturation in the low levels with the current
forecast attempting to reflect this gradient. While
deterministic models vary greatly on the placement of this band
of precipitation, which is often the case, AIGFS and AIFS both
have similar placement of the QPF axis. While the AI solutions
do not handle the amounts well, they have shown skill in the
location of the band. Therefore, have opted for the WPC QPF,
which has similar placement to the AI solutions, but has
magnitude towards six tenths. Forecast soundings point to near
surface temperatures just above freezing, but as wet bulbing
occurs early this evening, a transition to all snow is expected
across all of southern Iowa. Varying degrees of lift are shown
generally above 2km with moderate to strong lift in the
traditional dendritic growth zone (DGZ), though the depth is not
remarkable. Below 2km, subsidence and northeasterly flow is
shown so not sure how much the lesser known DGZ will play a role
in snow ratios, which should be mainly below 10:1. Looking at
straight model output snowfall is quite concerning with a streak
of 6"+ shown in southwest to south central Iowa with CSQ Cobb
output tables similar. The challenge will be the snow
accumulation on the ground as 4" soil temperatures are in the
middle to upper 40s. Snow rates have proven to play a crucial
role in overcoming these warm ground temperatures with rates of
around 0.75"/hr being sufficient to start accumulation. With the
strong forcing, there is potential for higher rates with the
latest SREF and HREF showing a 20-30% of 1"/hr rates overnight
with mean rates of half to three-quarters of an inch expected.
This brings the snow accumulation axis of 2 to 3 inches from
around the Omaha metro to Atlantic, Creston, and Lamoni. At
this time, not planning a winter weather advisory given amounts
generally under 3 inches and the time when much of the snow will
fall. However, the wet, slick snow is likely to impact the
Tuesday morning commute in southwest and south central Iowa so
will be monitoring observational and model trends. While
temperatures overnight will be below freezing, not planning any
freeze headlines over southern Iowa as conditions were similar
just yesterday/Sunday morning.

The snow over southern Iowa will begin to lift northeastward through
the day Tuesday as the theta-e advection pushes in a similar
direction. As temperatures warm, the initial snow at a given
location will mix with and change to rain. With the fgen weakening
by Tuesday morning, precipitation will be lighter than tonight and
any new snow accumulations after daybreak Tuesday will be near if
not under an inch over southern into central Iowa. The
precipitation should wane into Tuesday night with a brief dry
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A shortwave trough crossing the southern Canadian prairies will have
an associated surface low ahead of it with a southwestward trailing
cold front, which will reach Iowa late Wednesday. Ahead of this
front, breezy winds from the south and southwest will prevail
at 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Fire weather
concerns should be minimized as minimum relative humidity values
stay above 40%. As the front moves through Wednesday night into
Thursday, scattered showers and a few storms are expected along
this boundary. Widespread severe weather prospects continue to
look low in this period due to weak instability despite
otherwise favorable low level kinematics and deep shear.
Precipitable water values and warm cloud depths look seasonal so
not looking at exceptional rainfall, but amounts up to 1 to 2
inches will be possible with this front.

The front should slip south of Iowa Thursday night or Friday, though
how far varies in the models and this impacts the position of a
surface high on Friday. These surface features along with the
mid-level ridge over the eastern US, which continues to trend
slightly westward delaying the off-of-California shortwave
trough, are evolving the heavy rainfall threat later into the
weekend and early next week. This is reflected in lower NBM
PoPs that have trended down on Friday. However, the persistent
signal for an active, wet pattern remains as the California
trough eventually moves through the Desert Southwest and lifts
northeastward towards the state with the GFS and ECMWF both
negatively tilting it early next week. Will be monitoring heavy
rainfall threat with QPF values ticking up by another 1 to 3
inches from Saturday night through early next week. More details
on the impact of this potential rainfall in the hydro
discussion below. Finally, a window for severe weather may still
develop over the weekend with NSSL GEFS showing 10 to 15%
probabilities and Colorado State University's machine learning
random forest outlook showing 15 to 30% on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are in place across the state this
morning. The stratus across parts of northern Iowa is fairly patchy,
but more widespread MVFR stratus is present across southern
Minnesota and will move across the northern part of the state
this morning before dissipating midday. A few of the northern
TAF sites could alternate between MVFR and VFR with breaks in
the stratus until ceilings eventually rise after 17z. Some
showers are possible in the late afternoon at KDSM/KOTM, but
only a prob30 has been introduced for KDSM given southward
trends of the precip. A snow band will form towards the end of
the period, likely impacting KOTM/KDSM at some time near or
after 12z Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Many rivers are cresting or will crest over the next 24 hours or so
with about 15 forecast points reaching action stage. The Cedar River
at Cedar Falls has reached minor flood stage and we are also
monitoring the Iowa River near Tama that is expected to crest near
flood stage Tuesday morning.

The precipitation today into tonight, including the snow band,
will largely fall over areas that have not seen the higher
rainfall that occurred last week. NASA SPoRT GFS forced 0-10cm
and 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles are forecast to recover to
between the 30th and 70th percentiles by late this week. While
river forecast are only accounting for 24 hours of
precipitation, both the official forecast and the 120 hour
contingency forecast show all current action or minor flood
stage forecast points falling below action stage by late this
week, though they are unlikely to return to their base flows of
early last week.

Some rainfall up to 1 to 2 inches will fall with a cold front
Wednesday into Thursday, which may take away some soil capacity as
the active, wet pattern sets up late this weekend into early next
week. A few additional inches may be possible over portions of the
state, but uncertainty on amounts and placement within any given
basin at this time range remains high. The GFS and NBM forced
National Water Model high magnitude flow annual exceedance
probabilities are generally 50% on larger streams. This points
to renewed river rises that are generally within bank, with
this especially shown over southern into eastern Iowa. The
experimental Flood Hazard Outlook from late Sunday continues to
highlight much of Iowa for limited potential flooding impacts
with the experimental Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service
(HEFS) at the 30% chance of exceedance with stages similar to
current, but at the 10% chance of exceedance with several more
points reaching minor stage and a few to moderate stage. Trends
in the heavy rainfall signal will need to be monitored this
week.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ansorge
LONG TERM...Ansorge
AVIATION...Ansorge/De Bruin
HYDROLOGY...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
434 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-070945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
434 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Accumulating snowfall looks likely over southwest into parts of
south central Iowa tonight. This wet, slick snowfall may impact the
Tuesday morning commute.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The overnight accumulating snowfall will transition to rain
through the day Tuesday with little if any additional accumulation
after sunrise Tuesday.

A period of wet weather is possible late this week into next
weekend, which could lead to renewed rises on some area rivers.
Thunderstorms may be possible at times as well from later
Wednesday into this weekend with any severe weather risk better
determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed, but reports of snowfall are
appreciated.