Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Des Moines, IA

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Greene County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Polk County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Sac County, IA, Story County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Webster County, IA

263 
WWUS83 KDMX 270256
RFWDMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
956 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected Friday and
Saturday...

.Breezy northwest winds, along with cured fuels and low RH values
in the 20s, especially over southwest to west central Iowa Friday
afternoon to evening will lead to critical fire weather
conditions. Saturday will feature even gustier winds, along with
lower RH values, warming temperatures and dry fuels will lead to
continued critical fire weather conditions. Burning is not
recommended.

IAZ044>046-057>060-070>073-081>084-092>095-271100-
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.W.0005.260327T1700Z-260328T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.A.0003.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Cass-Adair-
Madison-Warren-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-
956 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL IOWA......FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL IOWA......FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TO
WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Parts of southwest to west central Iowa.

* WIND...For Friday, Northwest winds at 10-15 mph, gusting to 
  20-30 mph. For Saturday, Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, 
  gusting to 30-40 mph.

* HUMIDITY...For Friday, minimum values of 20-25 percent. For 
  Saturday, minimum values of around 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>037-047-048-271100-
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.A.0003.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-
Hardin-Boone-Story-
956 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Parts of Northern and North Central Iowa

* WIND...Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, gusting to 30-40 mph

* HUMIDITY...Minimum values around 15 percent

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$


For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/desmoines

647 
WWUS83 KDMX 270800
RFWDMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
300 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected Friday and
Saturday...

.Breezy northwest winds, along with cured fuels and low RH values
in the 20s, especially over southwest to west central Iowa Friday
afternoon to evening will lead to critical fire weather
conditions. Saturday will feature even gustier winds, along with
lower RH values, warming temperatures and dry fuels will lead to
continued critical fire weather conditions. Burning is not
recommended.

IAZ044>046-057>060-070>073-081>084-092>095-271600-
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.W.0005.260327T1700Z-260328T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.A.0003.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Cass-Adair-
Madison-Warren-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-
300 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST TO
WEST CENTRAL IOWA... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING 
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Parts of southwest to west central Iowa.

* WIND...For Friday, Northwest winds at 10-15 mph, gusting to 
  20-30 mph. For Saturday, Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, 
  gusting to 30-40 mph.

* HUMIDITY...For Friday, minimum values of 20-25 percent. For 
  Saturday, minimum values of around 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

IAZ027-028-038-039-049-050-061-062-074-075-085-086-096-097-271600-
/O.EXA.KDMX.FW.A.0003.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
Butler-Bremer-Grundy-Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Jasper-Poweshiek-
Marion-Mahaska-Monroe-Wapello-Appanoose-Davis-
300 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a Fire
Weather Watch, which is in effect from Saturday morning through
Saturday evening. 

* AFFECTED AREA...Parts of central and southern Iowa.

* WIND...For Friday, Northwest winds at 10-15 mph, gusting to 
  20-30 mph. For Saturday, Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, 
  gusting to 30-40 mph.

* HUMIDITY...For Friday, minimum values of 20-25 percent. For 
  Saturday, minimum values of around 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>037-047-048-271600-
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.A.0003.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-
Hardin-Boone-Story-
300 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
NORTHERN IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Parts of Northern Iowa

* WIND...Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, gusting to 30-40 mph

* HUMIDITY...Minimum values around 15 percent

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$


For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/desmoines

Hagenhoff

040 
WWUS83 KDMX 271434
RFWDMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
934 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected Today and 
Saturday...

.Breezy northwest winds, along with cured fuels and low RH values
in the 20s, especially over southwest to west central Iowa this
afternoon to evening will lead to critical fire weather 
conditions. Saturday will feature even gustier winds, along with 
lower RH values, warming temperatures and dry fuels, leading to 
continued critical fire weather conditions. Burning is not 
recommended.

IAZ044>046-057>060-070>073-081>084-092>095-272245-
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.W.0005.260327T1700Z-260328T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.A.0003.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Cass-Adair-
Madison-Warren-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-
934 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY 
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Parts of southwest to west central Iowa.

* WIND...For Today, Northwest winds at 10-15 mph, gusting to 
  20-30 mph. For Saturday, Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, gusting 
  to 30-40 mph.

* HUMIDITY...For Today, minimum values of 20-25 percent. For 
  Saturday, minimum values of around 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-047>050-061-062-074-075-085-
086-096-097-272245-
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.A.0003.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Boone-Story-Marshall-
Tama-Jasper-Poweshiek-Marion-Mahaska-Monroe-Wapello-Appanoose-
Davis-
934 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Portions of northern, central, and eastern Iowa

* WIND...Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, gusting to 30-40 mph

* HUMIDITY...Minimum values around 15 percent

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$


For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/desmoines

489 
WWUS83 KDMX 271652
RFWDMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1152 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected Today and Saturday...

.Breezy northwest winds, along with cured fuels and low RH values
in the 20s, especially over southern and much of central Iowa 
this afternoon to evening will lead to critical fire weather 
conditions. Saturday will feature even gustier winds out of the
southwest, along with lower RH values, warming temperatures and 
dry fuels, leading to continued critical fire weather conditions. 
Burning is not recommended.

IAZ033>036-047-048-061-074-075-085-086-096-097-280100-
/O.UPG.KDMX.FW.A.0003.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KDMX.FW.W.0006.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
/O.EXA.KDMX.FW.W.0005.260327T1700Z-260328T0200Z/
Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-Boone-Story-Jasper-Marion-Mahaska-
Monroe-Wapello-Appanoose-Davis-
1152 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 
9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect until 9 PM CDT this evening. A Red 
Flag Warning has also been issued from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday.
The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. 


* WIND...For Today, Northwest winds at 10-15 mph, gusting to 
  20-30 mph. For Saturday, Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, gusting 
  to 30-40 mph.

* HUMIDITY...For Today, minimum values of 20-25 percent. For 
  Saturday, minimum values of around 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ044>046-057>060-070>073-081>084-092>095-280100-
/O.UPG.KDMX.FW.A.0003.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KDMX.FW.W.0006.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.W.0005.260327T1700Z-260328T0200Z/
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Cass-Adair-
Madison-Warren-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-
1152 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT 
SATURDAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST TO
WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday. The
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. 

* AFFECTED AREA...Parts of southwest to west central Iowa.

* WIND...For Today, Northwest winds at 10-15 mph, gusting to 
  20-30 mph. For Saturday, Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, gusting 
  to 30-40 mph.

* HUMIDITY...For Today, minimum values of 20-25 percent. For 
  Saturday, minimum values of around 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-037>039-049-050-062-280100-
/O.UPG.KDMX.FW.A.0003.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KDMX.FW.W.0006.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Hardin-Grundy-
Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Poweshiek-
1152 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday. The
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. 

* WIND...Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, gusting to 30-40 mph

* HUMIDITY...Minimum values around 15 percent

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Bury

For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/desmoines

922 
WWUS83 KDMX 280208
RFWDMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
908 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected Saturday...

.Gusty winds out of the southwest, along with lower RH values, 
warming temperatures and dry fuels, leading to critical fire 
weather conditions. Burning is not recommended.

IAZ033>036-044>048-057>061-070>075-081>086-092>097-281015-
/O.EXP.KDMX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260328T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.W.0006.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-
Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-
Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-
Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
908 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR CRITICAL IRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
IOWA...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a  Red Flag
Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday.

* WIND...Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, gusting to 30-40 mph. 

* HUMIDITY...minimum values of around 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-037>039-049-050-062-281015-
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.W.0006.260328T1500Z-260329T0200Z/
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Hardin-Grundy-
Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Poweshiek-
908 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR FOR CRITICAL IRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
IOWA...

* WIND...Southwest winds at 20-25 mph, gusting to 30-40 mph

* HUMIDITY...Minimum values around 15 percent

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$


For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/desmoines

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Large gradient of high temperatures across the state today,
  with highs in the 50s north to 80s south.

- Breezy winds with gusts up of 35 to 40 mph possible as cold
  front passes through today. High to very high fire danger
  expected with the gusty winds.

- Isolated light showers/sprinkles today move through today,
  with a few thunderstorms possible in southern Iowa this
  evening. Any stronger storms could produce hail.

- Dry and mild conditions develop Friday and Saturday, with
  occasionally breezy winds both days. Increased fire danger
  likely both days, but especially Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Satellite imagery depicts increasing cloud cover from our northwest
and KDMX is picking up light radar returns over southern Minnesota,
indicating the approach of our much discussed low pressure and cold
front today. Farther south, surface observations are showing a surge
of 50+ degree dewpoints into northern Missouri and southern Iowa as
warm, moist air is advected northward toward the state. Through the
day, the elongated surface low pressure will drop south and east
through the state, trailed by a cool, dry air mass, serving as our
main driver for weather conditions in Iowa today.

The most widely observed impact from this system's passage today
will be breezy winds. Tightened pressure gradients both at the
surface and aloft will drive up wind speeds ahead and behind the
front, starting out of the southwest ahead and then flipping to
northerly behind. While it will be breezy everywhere, the strongest
winds will move through with the cold air advection and height rises
following the front. North winds of 20 to 25 mph are likely, with
gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible at times. With the front already
knocking on the doorstep of far northwest Iowa, expectation is for
the boundary to be entering the northern portions of our forecast
area around 6 to 7 am, through the I-80 corridor by around 12 pm to
1 pm, then through the entire area as soon as 4 to 5 pm. In addition
to the winds, the arrival of the cold, northerly flow will dictate
how warm temperatures get today. Southern Iowa will be the warmest,
as it will spend the most time within the warm air, while northern
Iowa will be coolest with the front already moving in around
sunrise. This results in a 30 degree difference from the high of 55F
forecast for Estherville to the high of 85F forecast for
Centerville.

With the breezy winds today, elevated fire weather concerns remain
on the the table today, both with the warm, moist air mass ahead of
the front and the cooler, but drier air mass behind the front.
Despite the 50 dewpoints expected in southern Iowa, relative
humidities are still expected to fall into the 35 to 45 percent
range this afternoon thanks to the unseasonably warm
temperatures. That said, winds won't be as windy in the warm
sector as behind the front. In the cooler air behind the front,
both temperatures and dewpoints will be lower, keeping relative
humidities generally a bit more moist in the 45 to 55 percent
range. However, stronger winds behind the front and dry fuels
will still lend to erratic fire behavior even with the cooler
air. The net result is high to very high fire danger values from
the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) across Iowa today, with
the highest values favoring western into central Iowa where
winds will be strongest and humidities the lowest. Burning is
discouraged today, as fire starts and spread will be more likely
under these conditions.

Finally, some low end precipitation chances (15 to 25%) will drop
southward through the area with the boundary today, much of which
appears to be post frontal. Soundings and cross sections both
indicate an elevated mixed layer will likely evaporate most
hydrometeors that develop within the saturated layer above it,
keeping most of Iowa dry today. However, weak instability aloft and
respectable lift in this layer does imply that there could be some
top-down saturation of this layer, especially as these showers work
their way south and east into the state where soundings indicate the
EML will be a bit weaker. The net result at the surface will likely
be a few sprinkles or a brief light shower for most impacted by
precipitation during the day.

In addition to the light shower/sprinkle potential north and
central, the possibility for thunder will increase the farther south
and east the front gets. This will range from a rumble or two of
thunder being possible in south central Iowa this afternoon, to
potentially even a stronger storm in the far southeastern reaches of
the forecast area this evening. Similar to the showers, it appears
that any thunderstorm activity will likely be post frontal, as even
forcing along the surface front will struggle to overcome the warm
nose and ~200 J/kg of convective inhibition ahead of it. That said,
1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and more saturated mid-levels will favor
a few elevated storms in the early evening hours behind the initial
front. The effective shear in the layer won't be overly high (20 to
30kts), and would be fairly unidirectional, but it's certainly
possible we could see some hail in far southeastern Iowa this
evening. With the storms being elevated and low and mid-levels more
saturated, downdraft CAPE values are low (~200 J/kg or less)
suggesting damaging wind is unlikely. Likewise, storms being post
frontal eliminates the threat for tornadoes. Therefore, if storms do
go, hail and lightning will be the primary concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Widespread north/northwesterly flow remains Friday following the
departing front to the south/east, with a large area of high
pressure descending across the region. Much cooler and drier
conditions are expected for the day, with forecast highs in the low
40s north to low 50s south. The aforementioned surface high is
slated to slowly depart the region through Saturday, with a return
to mid-level ridging across the western CONUS once again. At
the low levels, this means another warming trend on the horizon,
as warm air advection pushes warmer air back into the state
into early next week as forecast highs are expected to top out
through the 70s. Dry conditions on both Friday and Saturday may
result in high to very high fire danger as relative humidities
drop into the 20 to 30 percents both days. This is especially
true on Saturday, as warmer temperatures and breezy conditions
push RHs to critical levels. Evaluation of potentially critical
fire weather conditions on Saturday will be needed in the
coming days.

The signal remains for the overall pattern to turn more active
moving into the beginning of April as long range guidance depicts at
least a few defined troughs ejecting into the Central Plains.
Something to continue monitoring over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening, but
mainly across southern and eastern Iowa where PROB30 groups have
been included at OTM accordingly. Any precipitation at the other
terminals is of low probability and expected duration.
Otherwise, a broken deck of low clouds is making its way from
Minnesota into northern Iowa and will likely produce periods of
MVFR ceilings later this afternoon into tonight at FOD and MCW,
which are covered in TEMPO groups for now. It is uncertain how
far southward these low ceilings will advance, as well as how
long they will last before drier air works into the area
overnight. Have thus advertised only VFR conditions at the
southern terminals, and will assess for future
updates/amendments.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Dodson
LONG TERM...Bury
AVIATION...Lee

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
636 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-271145-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
636 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today due to dry
conditions and gusty winds.

Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon and evening,
mainly across the southeast half of Iowa. A few storms in far
southeast Iowa may be strong to severe, with hail being the main
concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Fire weather conditions will be elevated each day through Saturday,
due to a combination of gusty winds and dry conditions.

Thunderstorm chances will return at times next week, beginning
late Monday. Timing and any severe weather potential will be
better determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.