Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Des Moines, IA

501 
WGUS73 KDMX 061104
FFSDMX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
604 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

IAC007-117-125-135-185-061114-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-260606T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Appanoose IA-Lucas IA-Marion IA-Monroe IA-Wayne IA-
604 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN APPANOOSE, 
LUCAS, SOUTHERN MARION, WESTERN MONROE AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE 
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.


&&

LAT...LON 4108 9340 4122 9327 4119 9300 4124 9287
      4120 9287 4116 9287 4101 9281 4080 9289
      4082 9345 4090 9345

$$

Hagenhoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A lull in the storm activity for much of today, but storms return
  this evening and tonight, mainly across southern and central
  Iowa. There are renewed concerns for flash flooding and severe
  storms with all hazards possible.

- Much of Saturday will be dry but muggy, with scattered late
  day and evening storms again possible across central and southern
  Iowa.

- Heavy rain is a concern for renewed showers and thunderstorms
  on Sunday into Monday. Then heat builds next week with many
  areas exceeding 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Upper air pattern early this afternoon features a low amplitude
upper trough moving through the northern Plains and upper
Midwest. Still seeing rather thick cloud cover across much of
Iowa due to abundant low level moisture (enhanced by yesterday’s
rainfall) trapped under the developing inversion. The storms
from overnight pushed the effective sfc boundary into Missouri
this morning, but the latest sfc obs show winds shifting back
southerly across portions of southern and central Iowa. Some
breaks in the cloud cover have allowed temps to climb into the
70s, and expect some additional heating the remainder of the
afternoon.

With the expected high temperatures (upper 70s to lower 80s)
model soundings continue to show at least a weak cap /MLCIN of
-25 J/kg/ remaining over much of the CWA through early evening.
With generally weak background forcing/ascent, any CI will
likely be tied to moisture convergence along the sfc boundary.
Several of the CAMs /HRRR, RRFS/ try to initiate isolated storms
across far southern Iowa from 22-00Z. While very conditional, if
any storms can initiate in that region, strong MLCAPE /2000-3000
J/kg/, steeper mid-level lapse rates, and effective deep layer
shear values of 25-35kts could lead to supercell development.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threat,
although an isolated tornado is possible, especially near any
locally backed flow and enhanced SRH near the boundary.

The more robust severe threat will occur later in the evening
and then continue into the overnight as stronger lift develops
due to the strengthening nocturnal LLJ. Good model consensus
shows storms developing over ern NE/swrn IA from 9-11pm CDT and
then expanding eastward along the sfc boundary. Highest threat
for storms will generally occur along and south of I-80, but
will be ultimately dependent on where the sfc boundary ends up.
Even during these overnight hours, favorable MUCAPE/effective
shear will continue at least an isolated severe weather threat
/mainly hail and wind/ along with an escalating heavy rain
threat, see Hydro Discussion below. Storms will likely persist
until around sunrise Saturday before gradually weakening. See
the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) and any forthcoming
SWOMCDs for further details.

Saturday and Saturday Night..

Any remaining storms will be diminishing on early Saturday
morning. Shortwave upper ridging is then expected to develop by
Sat afternoon, with broad subsidence and little in the way of
forcing noted. As such, still expecting much of Saturday to be
dry, warm, and muggy, with highs again in the 80s. The
deterministic models and CAMs do indicate the possibility for
isolated/scattered late afternoon or evening storms, potentially
along any sfc or residual outflow boundaries. The most likely
location of storms is again across central and southern Iowa,
where the strong instability will reside, MLCAPE of 2000-3000
J/kg. Wind shear in that same area remains generally weak /less
than 20 kts/ so mainly pulse or perhaps multicell storms being
the most likely mode, with marginally severe hail or wet
microbursts possible. A SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5)
appears reasonable for now. Any storms will be diurnally driven,
with activity waning after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

An upper level cutoff low across the southern plains on Sunday
morning will lift into the midwest by the afternoon and evening.
Deep moisture transport out of the gulf increases into Iowa,
especially southern Iowa. Scattered daytime showers and
thunderstorms may linger with renewed thunderstorms developing
in the evening and continuing overnight into Monday morning as
the upper low/trough tracks across Iowa. The threat for severe
storms appears low at this time with deeply saturated soundings
exhibiting very little instability (500 J/kg) or shear (20 kts
or less). The primary concern this period will be additional
heavy rain across southern Iowa, following heavy rain Thursday
and Friday nights. With PWATs near 2” and deep warm cloud layers
exceeding 4000m, expect efficient rain fall across southern into
central Iowa.

The upcoming week should be mainly dry, though few weak waves
skimming the area could bring renewed showers or thunderstorms
to the area. Heat builds through the week as the thermal ridge
expands and shifts into the midwest. While NBM guidance has
rockets up into the mid to upper 90s by the middle to end of
next week, this seems overdone from over mixing and with weak
waves thwarting the highest temperatures. NBM has been on the
highest end of the guidance envelope the past several cycles and
will continue to need nudging down unless the pattern changes.
Despite the overzealous NBM, temperatures will still be quite
warm and reach the upper 80s to low 90s. The next more organized
chance for precipitation arrives late in the week around
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Thunderstorms are ongoing across southern Iowa and may briefly
impact KDSM and KOTM as the night goes on. Across northern
terminals, patchy fog will develop bringing the potential for MVFR
VIS through sunrise. After sunrise, VFR conditions are expected at
all terminals through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ070>075-081>086-
092>097.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Fowle
AVIATION...Rotter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
137 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

IAZ057>059-070>075-081>086-092>097-061845-
Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-
Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
137 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and
overnight. The risk for severe weather is low/medium (2 out of
5). Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, large hail, and a
tornado or two are possible. A Flood Watch has been issued across
southern Iowa.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Continued thunderstorm chances continue through midweek next week
but the severe weather risk will be determined in the coming
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-060>062-061845-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-
137 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight.
The risk for severe weather is low (1 out of 5). Locally heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, large hail, and a tornado or two are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Continued thunderstorm chances continue through midweek next week
but the severe weather risk will be determined in the coming
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

MPX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1128 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Pleasantville           41.39N 93.27W
06/05/2026                   Marion             IA   Emergency Mngr

            Report of tree on house in Pleasantville.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

JR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     Hail             2 N Attica              41.26N 93.01W
06/05/2026  M1.00 Inch       Marion             IA   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

90

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1144 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     Hail             2 N Attica              41.26N 93.01W
06/05/2026  E1.00 Inch       Marion             IA   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

90

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1204 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Orient                  41.20N 94.42W
06/05/2026  M60 MPH          Adair              IA   Mesonet

            Measured from personal weather station.

&&

90

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Hail             Pleasantville           41.39N 93.27W
06/05/2026  M2.00 Inch       Marion             IA   Public

            Delayed report - relayed from broadcast
            media. Time estimated from radar.

&&

90

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1214 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 ESE Greenfield        41.28N 94.34W
06/05/2026  M60 MPH          Adair              IA   Mesonet

            Measured from personal weather station.

&&

90