Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
131 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 4 PM with a
  second line of storms likely to redevelop and cross the BWCA
  tonight.

- High heat and humidity this afternoon with heat index values
  over 100 degrees prompting Extreme Heat Warnings and
  Advisories.

- Dangerous swimming conditions persist along Lake Superior
  beaches due to strong rip currents through this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

For the rest of the day, our primary concerns will be the
oppressive heat and the severe weather threat. Extreme Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for the southern
half of the Northland. We are noting that CAMS guidance is not
doing well, but there is plenty of CAPE with storms riding along
a warm front. In addition, rich PWATs of 2.4+ inches giving
heavy rainfall with warm sector inflow providing dewpoints in
the 80s. This incredible moisture is pushing heat index values
well past the 100 degree mark for many of our southern
communities. Meanwhile, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in
effect until 4 PM for all of northeast Minnesota.

The current storm moving through St. Louis County presents
itself very similar to the radar presentation of the 1999 BWCA
blowdown storm with similar timing too! Thus far, this storm
hasn't been too effective in bringing down winds to the surface,
at least in the last 3 hours; however, the environment over NE
Minnesota is rich as a little clearing occurred to allow the
storm to become more surface based increasing the threat for
winds as it moves through the Arrowhead. Similarly, the storm's
southern end also is beginning to take on a identity of its own
and should run east into the higher richer moisture. Should be
an active afternoon. In addition to the storm threat, there is a
wake low that is causing really strong winds in the wake of the
convective line which could gust to 50 to 60 mph!

As we move into the evening and overnight hours, the threat for
severe weather continues. Models continue to indicate that
redevelopment is likely this evening causing a second line of
storms to cross through the BWCA. Given the extreme instability
and moisture in place, these storms will pose a substantial risk
for large hail, damaging winds, and intense downpours capable
of localized flooding. Temperatures tonight will provide little
relief from the heat, with lows struggling to fall below 70
degrees in many locations.

For tomorrow, a cold front will slowly work eastward across the
region. Heat Advisories will linger for our northwest Wisconsin
counties as temperatures once again climb into the 90s, though
drier air will slowly filter into Minnesota. Instability will
pool ahead of the advancing front, bringing another round of
strong to severe thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon
hours across northwest Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds
will once again be the primary hazards.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the active summer pattern will
persist. We will maintain southwesterly flow aloft as a
shortwave passes through the region. This will bring additional
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could be strong given the lingering instability. Temperatures
will remain quite warm, generally in the 80s to near 90 degrees,
ensuring the humid feel sticks around the area.

For Thursday through the upcoming weekend, broad ridging will
remain anchored to our east with troughing to the west. This
setup keeps the Northland in a warm and active southwest flow
regime. Expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. High
temperatures will remain somewhat steady in the 80s. While not
every day will be a washout, anyone with outdoor holiday weekend
plans should monitor the forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Flight conditions will vary greatly across the Northland over
the next 24 hours. A mix of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
as scattered severe thunderstorms impact terminals this
afternoon and again tonight with a second line. Dense fog near
Lake Superior will gradually lift this afternoon. Expect gusty
and erratic winds near any thunderstorms, otherwise generally
southerly to southwesterly winds will prevail outside of the
lake breeze.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM this
afternoon for western Lake Superior, while a Small Craft
Advisory runs until 10 PM tonight due to gusty northeast winds
up to 30 knots and elevated waves. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and again tonight,
posing a risk for large hail, gale force wind gusts, and
frequent lightning. Winds will become southwesterly at 10 to 15
knots on Tuesday with waves subsiding. Expect additional
thunderstorm chances through midweek.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast
period due to high humidity and multiple rounds of widespread
rainfall. Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain
above 50 percent today, though Tuesday could see values drop
into the 35 to 45 percent range. Winds will be gusty out of the
southeast today at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, shifting
to the southwest on Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions will
continue through the middle of the week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ025-033>036.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
     Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ038.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
     Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ006-007.
     Heat Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ001.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ002>004-008-009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ140>145.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ142>147-150.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe
FIRE WEATHER...Wolfe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
450 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-301000-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
450 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong northeast winds will increase the threat of rip currents
through this evening for areas near the Twin Ports, including the
beaches of Duluth and Superior. A Beach Hazards Statement has been
issued for these areas.

Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into tonight.
If severe storms occur, all hazards are possible. Damaging wind
gusts are expected with severe storms, with some gusts to 80 mph
possible over north central Minnesota and east to the I-35
corridor and the Twin Ports. Large hail, with some up to baseball
sized in north central Minnesota, is also possible. There is also
a lesser threat for tornados across northeastern and north central
Minnesota. Some minor ponding is possible with any heavy rain.

Hot and humid conditions begin today, increasing the risk for
heat-related illnesses. Extreme Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories are in effect for the southern half of the
Northland.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast
Monday through Wednesday night, mainly across northwest Wisconsin.
Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall which could
lead to flash flooding are the main hazards. A tornado or two are
also possible.

There are additional chances of thunderstorms Thursday through
next Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue through
Wednesday. The risk of heat-related illness will also continue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters may be needed today and tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-301000-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
450 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Northeast winds of 10-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots are
forecast near the Twin Ports and the North Shore through this
evening which will pose a risk to smaller vessels. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect through this evening.

Strong to severe storms are possible across western Lake Superior
this afternoon and overnight. The main threats will be large
hail, strong wind gusts, and frequent cloud-to-water lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Several rounds of thunderstorms are forecast through the end of
the week. Some storms may be strong to severe Tuesday. The main
threats will be large hail, strong wind gusts, and frequent cloud-
to-water lightning.

KML

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
238 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Hail             1 E Lawler              46.53N 93.15W
06/29/2026  M1.00 Inch       Aitkin             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

SG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
239 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Buhl                47.46N 92.77W
06/29/2026                   St. Louis          MN   Law Enforcement

            Two reports of wires down in the area from
            trees falling on them.

&&

WFU

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
243 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 WNW Britt             47.66N 92.71W
06/29/2026                   St. Louis          MN   Law Enforcement

            Report of tree down on power lines with the
            tree hanging over the roadway.

&&

WFU

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Virginia                47.52N 92.54W
06/29/2026                   St. Louis          MN   Law Enforcement

            Multiple reports of power lines down in the
            Virginia area.

&&

WFU

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
247 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     Hail             Barnum                  46.50N 92.69W
06/29/2026  M1.75 Inch       Carlton            MN   Trained Spotter

&&

SG

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