Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
224 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening across the far northern Arrowhead, bringing threats of
  hail up to half-dollar size and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- A strong lake breeze on Wednesday will bring much cooler
  temperatures near Lake Superior while hot conditions persist
  inland.

- Hot and dry conditions will lead to periods of near-critical
  fire weather concerns across parts of the region later this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

For the rest of the day, warm southerly flow will meet a slowly
advancing cold front moving from north to south across the
Northland. An inversion currently in place is expected to mix
out later this afternoon, allowing a seasonably moist air mass
to establish sufficient instability with around 1000 J/kg of
CAPE. A small mesoscale convective vortex that developed earlier
today is migrating northward, providing the necessary forcing
boost to spark isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Although deep-layer wind shear is quite
weak, a few pulse-style storms could become strong to severe,
capable of producing penny to half-dollar size hail and wind
gusts of 40 to 60 mph, primarily south of the US Highway 2
corridor. Highs will top out in the 80s inland but remain cooler
north of the front. Storms will fade tonight with a loss of
heating, leaving partly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

On Wednesday, a Canadian high pressure pushes toward the Great
Lakes, turning winds easterly to northeasterly across the entire
area. A tighter pressure gradient will generate gusty northeast
winds up to 25 mph over western Lake Superior. Waves will
increase along the shoreline as a result, increasing the risk
for rip currents in the afternoon for swimmers. This will also
bring a prominent lake breeze inland, causing a sharp
temperature contrast which will keep areas near the big lake
chilly in the 60s and lower 70s, while inland locations remain
hot in the 80s. By Thursday, the surface high centers itself
over the region, maintaining dry and sunny conditions. The
persistent lake breeze will continue to suppress daytime highs
into the 60s along the shorelines, while inland locations will
have mid 70s to low 80s under clear skies.

The weather pattern shifts again on Friday as the surface high
pressure system weakens and drifts southward, allowing winds to
turn back to the south. Our region will remain positioned under
a large, stalled upper-level ridge that dominates the central
Plains and Canadian Prairies. This block ensures that unseasonably
warm and dry conditions linger across the Northland. Friday
looks to be exceptionally hot, with inland high temperatures
surging back into the upper 80s and lower 90s, potentially
approaching/breaking daily records. A weak passing upper-level
disturbance could touch off a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms Friday evening, but chances remain low near twenty
percent, and most locations will stay dry.

Over the weekend and into next Monday, the stalled out ridge
aloft remains firmly in place, extending the period of dry and
warm weather. At the surface, another strong area of high
pressure will drift southward from Hudson Bay into Ontario on
Saturday and Sunday. The resulting pressure gradient will
reintroduce a steady northeast wind, triggering another robust
lake breeze. Temperatures will once again split, with locations
along Lake Superior holding in the upper 60s to mid 70s, while
inland areas stay hot in the low to mid 80s. Aside from an
isolated afternoon storm threat in northwest Wisconsin on
Saturday, the multi-day stretch will feature mostly clear skies
and stable conditions through the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period except for BRD
and HYR. Scattered thunderstorms in central Minnesota may come
in the vicinity of BRD and briefly reduce conditions to MVFR
later this afternoon into the early evening. There is a about
20% chance these storms form as far east as HYR as well, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. HYR could
also see a brief period of fog in the early hours Wednesday
morning, producing visibilities as low as 2SM.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

For western Lake Superior, east to northeast winds will
gradually strengthen for the rest of today to 5 to 12 knots,
with gusts up to 15 to 18 knots in the southwest arm. Waves will
remain 2 feet or less. On Wednesday, a tight pressure gradient
will increase northeast winds to 10 to 18 knots with gusts
peaking between 15 and 25 knots. Waves will build to 2 to 4 feet
near the Twin Ports and from Oak Point to Saxon Harbor,
creating hazardous conditions for small craft. Northeast winds
will weaken on Thursday but will remain up to 15 kts at the head
of Lake Superior.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Dry, near-critical relative humidity values between 20 and 30
percent are forecast this afternoon for areas extending from
near Walker to Ely. Winds will be light and variable at 5 to 10
mph north of a sagging frontal boundary, and southerly at 5 to
10 mph south of it. On Wednesday and Thursday, winds turn
northeast, bringing a cool lake breeze and higher humidities to
the shorelines while inland relative humidity drops to 25 to 35
percent. Warmer temperatures, lower humidity, and southerly
winds return on Friday. Due to a stalled ridge and an ongoing
lack of wetting rain, near-critical fire weather conditions are
expected daily for different portions of the Northland
throughout the week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Friday, May 29:

      Forecast    Record
      --------    ------
KDLH: 84 ........ 87 in 1986
KHIB: 90 ........ 88 in 1999 and 2006
KINL: 91 ........ 92 in 1999 and 2006

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
CLIMATE...KML

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
337 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-272045-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
337 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There is a 10-30% chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon into evening, mainly along and south US-2 in
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. There is a Marginal
Risk, level 1 out of 5, for isolated severe thunderstorms over
portions of central Minnesota, the I-35 corridor, and northwest
Wisconsin. Hail up to half dollar size, 1.25 inches in diameter,
and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph are the main risks.

Low relative humidity will lead to near-critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon into early evening north of a line from
Walker to Longville to Ely to Sea Gull Lake, including the
Borderlands and portions of the Iron Range.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a 10% chance of isolated storms Wednesday across southern Price
County in Wisconsin.

Northeast winds are forecast over western Lake Superior Wednesday
and Saturday which could lead to rip currents at the beaches of
the Twin Ports.

Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible over portions
of north-central Minnesota and the Arrowhead Wednesday and
Thursday. Drier conditions and widespread warm temperatures are
forecast Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-272045-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
337 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There is a 10% chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening south of a line from Two Harbors to Outer Island.
Occasional cloud-to-water lightning and small hail are the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Northeast winds Wednesday and Wednesday night may pose a risk to
small craft in the Outer Apostle Islands and the southwest arm of
Lake Superior to the Twin Ports.

Gusty northeast winds return Saturday and may pose a risk to
small craft.

BJH

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
121 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MNZ010>012-018>020-025-026-035-037-270100-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-North Itasca-
Central St. Louis-Southern Lake-North Cass-South Itasca-
Northern Aitkin-Carlton and South St. Louis-
Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella,
Bigfork, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Walker, Grand Rapids,
Hill City, and Duluth
121 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...

Dry conditions are forecast this afternoon for portions areas of
northeast Minnesota north of a line from Walker to Cloquet to
Silver Bay. Relative humidity values between 15 and 25 percent
will lead to near-critical fire weather conditions today. East
winds of 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 15 mph are forecast.
Together, these conditions may cause fires to spread. Check
burning restrictions and fire danger before burning.

For more information on burning restrictions for Minnesota, see
www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/firerating_restrictions.html.

KML

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