Beach Hazards Statement 9, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
144 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend starts today with temperatures running well
  above normal starting Monday and persisting through much of
  net week. Humid conditions are expected as well and heat
  headlines will likely be needed.

- A conditional chance for strong to severe storms exists for
  Sunday and Monday with additional chances for storms
  throughout next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Increasing winds today will lead to hazardous swimming
conditions from rip currents at beaches along Lake Superior
today. This trend will likely continue into Sunday as well.

Trend continues for the chance for strong to severe storms
Sunday and Monday, though storms may be inhibited by the still-
present cap expected in place aloft. However, elevated storms
are still in play with heavy rain chances persisting and ponding
possible, especially on Monday. In addition, whatever storms do
manage to form will lead to lingering cloud cover into Monday
and/or Tuesday, which may limit the heat threat to more of an
advisory level rather than warning across the area. On top of
that, models still seem to trend too hot this far out, so
brought the temperatures down again slightly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

High pressure was located across the western Great Lakes early
this afternoon and it extended westward into the Central and
Northern Plains. A narrow band of showers stretched from central
North Dakota into central Minnesota and western Wisconsin in
association with a weak shortwave aloft. Much of this activity
was not reaching the ground and drying up as it moved to the
east. A lake breeze was also observed on radar along the South
Shore and head of the lake stretching from near Port Wing to
near Moose Lake. Conditions are expected to remain mainly dry
across the Northland today into tonight, outside of a few light
showers in western areas as the shortwave aloft moves through.

Upper level ridging will build in for the weekend with return
flow in the low levels on the back side of the departing high
pressure. This will bring increasing temperatures and moisture
northward into the Upper Midwest. Highs Saturday will reach into
the 70s to lower 80s for both Saturday and Sunday with dewpoints
in the 50s and 60s Saturday and 60s and 70s Sunday. Low pressure
across the northern High Plains will move northward Saturday
into Sunday, blocked by the strong high pressure to the east. As
another area of low pressure develops along the cold front
across the central High Plains, a warm front will lift through
the Central Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday, bringing chances
for showers and thunderstorms to the region. As this feature
lifts northward, it will be accompanied by rich low level
moisture and increasing lapse rates. This will bring a chance of
strong to severe storms, but forecast soundings show capping in
place, so storms may end up elevated. These storms may be
efficient rain producers as well with tall skinny CAPE profiles
and PWATS in the 1.5-1.75" range.

Monday continues to look interesting with very hot and humid
conditions along with the potential for severe storms. Low
pressure will move northward across the Central and Northern
Plains through the day Monday along the west side of the upper
ridge. Even more warm and more moist air will move northward
into the region. Highs will reach into the 80s and 90s with
dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s. This package has lowered
temperatures a few degrees for Monday to account for the strong
warm bias noted in some of the models. Even with this change,
heat indicies will reach into the 90s and potentially lower 100s
in southern and western areas and heat headlines will likely be
needed. This hot and moist airmass will lead to CAPE in excess
of 3000 J/kg along with shear around 35 knots and favorable
lapse rates. Forecast soundings continue to show a stout cap in
place with very warm temperatures over 20C up to around 750mb.
Should this cap hold, we might not see any storms. However, if
updrafts can break through it, conditions will be favorable for
all modes of severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Heavy rainfall will continue to be a possibility during this
time with PWATs above the 90th percentile for late June. With
all this said, there aren't any strong indications of a lifting
mechanism to get things going, so this is a very conditional
threat and may rely on more mesoscale processes for initiation
which cannot yet be resolved.

The remainder of next week will remain very warm with highs in
the 80s and low 90s. Additional chances for showers and storms
will be seen potentially each day. The mid-week period may not
be as humid with models showing some drier air arriving behind a
front Tuesday, but it remains to be seen how much of an effect
this will have on providing any meaningful relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. INL may see on
and off rain showers and storms in the morning, then becoming
further scattered in the afternoon. Winds will increase out of
the southeast Saturday mid morning, but will be strongest at
BRD, where gusts to 20 kts are possible.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Winds increase during the day today and Sunday out of the
northeast. Winds above 20 kts are expected at the Twin Ports,
which prompted a Small Craft Advisory to be issued this
afternoon and evening. Winds above 20 kts will expand at least
up the North Shore for Sunday, which will likely lead to more
Small Craft Advisory issuances.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Fire weather conditions are not expected, but we are expecting
increasing temperatures and dewpoints into next week.
Temperatures in the 80s and 90s and dewpoints in the 60s and 70s
will lead to dangerous heat conditions. However, humidity in the
afternoons will remain above 40% due to the high dewpoints. On
and off chances for general and potentially severe thunderstorms
will play a part in whether RHs remain higher as expected or if
they will fall further if we stay dry. Winds will increase this
weekend out of the southeast, with strongest winds Sunday with
15 mph sustained winds and up to 25 mph gusts.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT
     this evening for LSZ144-145.

&&

UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
442 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-272145-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
442 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Increasing northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph over western Lake
Superior Saturday and Sunday will pose a risk of hazardous
swimming conditions due to rip currents for the beaches of the
Twin Ports.

There is a 20-60% chance for scattered storms late Saturday
night, with the best potential in north central Minnesota.

The weather pattern turns hot, humid, and stormy Sunday through
early next week with an increasing risk of dangerous heat and
strong to severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-272145-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
442 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Increasing northeast winds are forecast Saturday and especially
on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are forecast Sunday through next
Wednesday. Some storms may be strong to severe Sunday through
Tuesday.

JDS

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth