Beach Hazards Statement 4, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
356 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong lake breeze today will bring much cooler
  temperatures near Lake Superior while hot conditions persist
  inland.

- There is a high risk of rip currents at the beaches of the
  Twin Ports today.

- Hot and dry conditions will lead to periods of near-critical
  fire weather concerns today through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Synopsis:

A complex split-flow pattern over the North American continent
was evident on GOES-East water vapor imagery early this morning.
A cutoff low was found over the CA/NV border and a negatively
tilted ridge from the Gulf Coast to the northern Plains and a
nearly meridional positively tilted longwave trough over the
eastern half of Canada. The ridge will continue to build over
the Plains during the remainder of the week while split flow
persists over the continent. Of note for today is an area of
channelized vorticity near the base of the Canadian trough. That
feature will sag southward across the Northland today while the
trough axis rotates toward New England. At the surface, an area
of surface high pressure over northern Manitoba and far
northern Ontario will sag slowly southward over the next several
days while surface low pressure over the northern Rockies
slowly weakens.

Today and Thursday:

The vort max and associated shortwave over northwest Ontario
early this morning will pivot southeastward over the Northland
today. As of 08Z a narrow band of scattered showers was found
over northern St. Louis, northern Lake, and western Cook
counties just ahead of the shortwave. Several lightning strikes
were observed with this cluster back around midnight. With
generally weak forcing aside from the modest height falls
associated with the shortwave trough, I expect the area of
showers to persist through late morning and gradually sag
southeastward with time.

The surface pressure gradient over the Northland will tighten
today as the surface high pressure sags south in contrast with
the low pressure over the northern Rockies. Strong northeast
winds will develop over western Lake Superior with building
waves near the Twin Ports creating a high risk of rip currents.
A prominent lake breeze is forecast to push well inland and keep
temperatures a little cooler than the past three days. Areas in
the Brainerd Lakes and along MN/WI-70 into northwest Wisconsin
should be the warmest today as the lake breeze will arrive well
after peak heating. Temperatures top out in the low to middle
60s along the immediate shoreline to the low to upper 80s
farther inland. Deep mixing ahead of the lake breeze will allow
afternoon RH values to drop into the 20-30% range. RH values
below 25% from around Leech Lake northeast into northern St.
Louis County will create near-critical fire weather conditions.
Wind gusts this afternoon over the Northland will increase to 10
to 20 mph. A few spots may see gusts up to 25 mph.

As the shortwave trough continues to propagate southeastward
this afternoon, there is a slight chance (10-20%) of isolated
showers and storms over northwest Wisconsin.

Thursday will see similar conditions as the surface high
pressure sags farther south over Lake Superior and into
Wisconsin. With the center of the high pressure closer to the
region, winds should lighter. Northeast winds over western Lake
Superior should create another lake breeze which will push well
inland by late afternoon. The northeast winds and building waves
will create a moderate to high risk of rip currents near the
Twin Ports.

Friday through next Wednesday:

The weather pattern shifts again on Friday as the surface high
pressure system weakens and drifts southward resulting in
southerly return flow. Dry conditions will persist with near-
critical fire weather conditions due to low RH values in the
afternoon. Record to near-record high temperatures are forecast
in the low 80s to low 90s.

Another area of surface high pressure will drift southward
across Ontario and into the Great Lakes over the weekend. A
tighter pressure gradient on Saturday will bring a risk of rip
currents and another prominent lake breeze. Diurnally driven
instability may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms to
develop along/inland from the lake breeze Saturday
afternoon/evening.

Temperatures continue the cooler though still near to above
normal trend heading into next week. The somewhat stagnant
upper-level pattern may begin to give way as the upper-level
ridge narrows and amplifies. Several jet streaks are forecast to
ride over the ridge and into the trough over eastern Canada and
the northeast US early next week. There will be daily chances
of isolated diurnal showers and storms. Widespread rainfall is
not anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Scattered showers occurring in the Borderlands near KINL have
occasionally been producing lightning. The expectation is that
thunderstorms will be coming to an end within the next hour.
Patchy MVFR to IFR fog will potentially develop later this
morning, especially around terminals that saw rainfall yesterday
afternoon and evening. Any fog that forms will dissipate
shortly after sunrise, giving way to VFR conditions and gusty
easterly winds.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

High pressure sagging southeast from northern Manitoba and far
northern Ontario into the Midwest by Friday. Surface pressure
gradient will tighten across Lake Superior today causing
northeast winds to strengthen. The strongest winds will be in
the southwest arm of Lake Superior and near and south of
Madeline Island. Look for sustained winds of around 5-8 knots
above Taconite Harbor with 12-18 knots near the Twin Ports and
Oak Point. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots are forecast and waves
will build to 2 to 5 feet where winds are strongest. Winds relax
overnight tonight and strengthen again on Thursday, though are
not expected to be as strong as today. Friday appears somewhat
relaxed also before strong northeast winds return Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

High pressure sagging southeast from northern Manitoba and far
northern Ontario will provide mostly sunny skies today. A
prominent lake breeze is forecast from Lake Superior into
northwest Wisconsin and central Minnesota by late this
afternoon. Temperatures trend cooler though minimum RH values of
20-30% are forecast for most of the Northland. Winds will
generally be from the east or northeast and will increase to 5
to 15 mph this afternoon with a gusts of 15 to 20 mph. A few
gusts as high as 25 mph are possible near the Twin Ports and
along the south shore of Lake Superior. Highs today will in the
60s and 70s near Lake Superior and along the Canadian border
with low to upper 80s farther inland. Similar conditions are
forecast Thursday though winds will turn southeasterly. Friday
will see a return to summer-like heat with widespread min RH
values below 25% and record to near-record high temperatures in
the low 80s to low 90s. Nearby surface high pressure should
yield weaker winds than today and Thursday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Hot, summer-like temperatures return Friday with temperatures
nearing daily record highs at several climate sites. As of this
morning Hibbing is forecast to break their record by several
degrees. Below are the sites where forecast high temperatures
are within 3 degrees of their record values.

Friday, May 29:

          Forecast    Record
          --------    ------
Duluth:   85 ........ 87 in 1986
Hibbing:  91 ........ 88 in 1999 and 2006
I. Falls: 91 ........ 92 in 1919
Brainerd: 91 ........ 94 in 2018

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM CDT this morning through
     this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM CDT this morning through
     this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ121-144-145-148-150.

&&

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Huyck
FIRE WEATHER...Huyck
CLIMATE...Huyck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
817 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-280130-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
817 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a 10% chance of isolated storms Wednesday across
southern Price County in Wisconsin.

Northeast winds are forecast over western Lake Superior Wednesday
and Saturday which could lead to rip currents at the beaches of
the Twin Ports.

Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible over portions
of north-central Minnesota and the Arrowhead Wednesday and
Thursday. Drier conditions and widespread warm temperatures are
forecast Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-280130-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
817 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Northeast winds Wednesday and Wednesday night may pose a risk to
small craft in the Outer Apostle Islands and the southwest arm of
Lake Superior to the Twin Ports.

Gusty northeast winds return Saturday and may pose a risk to
small craft.

Britt

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth