Beach Hazards Statement 13, NWS Duluth, MN

023 
WHUS43 KDLH 162004
CFWDLH

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Duluth MN
304 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

MNZ037-WIZ001-162115-
/O.CAN.KDLH.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-260717T0300Z/
Carlton and South St. Louis-Douglas-
304 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have remained lower than forecast and conditions
conducive to rip currents are no longer expected.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoky conditions continue throughout this week.

- Two rounds of showers and storms are expected with cold fronts
  Friday and again Monday.

- Another round of dangerous heat is possible Friday for the
  Brainerd Lakes to WI/MN Stateline area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For the rest of the day, a stalled frontal boundary remains
stretched across central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
Dewpoints are gradually dropping from north to south behind this
boundary. Thick wildfire smoke advecting southwestward is
keeping temperatures cooler than previously expected.
Consequently, the Heat Advisory has been cancelled for several
central areas, but a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM
this evening along our southern tier of counties. With very dry
air in place, near- critical fire weather is possible this
afternoon and evening from the Iron Range northward. Tonight,
skies will be mostly cloudy with smoke thickening, while a few
isolated showers could clip the far northern borderlands after
midnight.

On Thursday, wildfire smoke will continue to linger across the
Northland due to persistent northwesterly flow and very poor
atmospheric mixing. Highs will remain unseasonably warm in
the 80s for most inland locations. However, a lake breeze
developing over Lake Superior will keep coastal areas cooler,
in the 70s and lower 80s. This onshore wind will also increase
the risk of dangerous rip currents at Twin Ports beaches. Rain
chances will slowly rise through the day, with scattered light
showers and perhaps a few isolated, non-severe thunderstorms
developing by Thursday afternoon, particularly across northern
Minnesota and near the international border.

By Friday, a brief reprieve from the thickest smoke may occur
as low-level winds shift to the southwest ahead of a cold
front. This front is forecast to trigger widespread showers
and thunderstorms starting late Thursday night and continuing
through Friday. Rainfall of a quarter-inch to a half-inch is
generally expected, with localized amounts up to an three
quarters of an inch. While this rain is highly beneficial for
the wildfires up north, the potential for lightning in the dry
Arrowhead raises concerns for new wildfire starts. A few severe
storms are possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin as
well, with damaging winds and large hail possible. High
temperatures will vary widely on Friday, ranging from the humid
upper 80s to cooler 70s along the North Shore within the lake
breeze.

As the cold front exits to the east, dry and sunny conditions
will return for Saturday. High temperatures will generally rise
into the 80s. However, the post-frontal northwesterly flow will
likely pull thick wildfire smoke back into the region. Places
that get the thick smoke will likely have lower high
temperatures than forecast. Sunday will start mostly sunny and
warm, with highs once again reaching the 80s to near 90 degrees.
A weak shortwave passing through could trigger a few isolated
showers or storms by late Sunday afternoon, but most areas will
remain dry.

A stronger weather system is forecast to cross the region Sunday
night into Monday as an upper-level low tracks to our north.
This system will bring another round of much-needed
precipitation to the area. Once this system exits, dry and
smoky conditions are expected to resume for much of next week. A
cooler, more seasonal air mass will filter in behind this
second front, bringing relief from the recent heat as daytime
highs trend back into the comfortable 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions continue with periodic LIFR visibilities
as wildfire smoke persists this TAF period. Expect some rain
showers and potentially isolated non-severe thunderstorms along
and north of the Iron Range today. Easterly winds gust to 20
knots today for the Twin Ports and South Shore terminals.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A Dense Smoke Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM CDT
Thursday for all nearshore and open waters of western Lake
Superior, as thick wildfire smoke reduces visibilities to 1 to 5
nautical miles at times. Light winds of 5 to 15 knots will
continue through Thursday morning, with waves generally under 2
feet. By Thursday afternoon, northeast winds are expected to
increase in the southwestern arm of the lake, with gusts up to
25 knots and waves building to 3 feet in the Twin Ports,
potentially leading to hazardous conditions for small craft.
Showers and thunderstorms become likely late Thursday night into
Friday as a cold front approaches.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A Special Weather Statement has been issued for near-critical
fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening across far
northern Minnesota due to dry air, with minimum relative
humidity values of 25 to 35 percent. Winds will remain light
under 10 mph today. Humidity recoveries tonight will be good,
reaching 75 to 85 percent. On Thursday, minimum relative
humidity will range from 35 to 45 percent with light east winds.
Rain chances increase with a cold front late Thursday night
into Friday with a quarter-inch to a half-inch of rain expected,
though lightning in the dry Arrowhead introduces the danger of
new wildfire starts. Generally dry and warm weather returns this
weekend, with another cold front bringing showers and storms on
Monday followed by a cooling trend and northwest winds by
Tuesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
714 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-170015-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
714 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Smoke from wildfires is causing unhealthy to hazardous air
quality with an Air Quality Alert in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Lingering hot conditions may need additional Heat Advisories
Thursday and especially on Friday.

Smoke from wildfires will continue to lead to unhealthy to
hazardous air quality in northeast Minnesota through the work
week. Air Quality Alerts are in effect.

Strong northeast winds may lead to rip currents at Minnesota and
Wisconsin Point beaches on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-170015-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
714 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Dense marine smoke is expected to persist tonight over western
Lake Superior with a Dense Marine Smoke Advisory in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Dense marine smoke is expected into Thursday especially north of
Silver Bay with the Advisory continuing till Thursday afternoon.
These conditions may even last into Friday.

Northeast wind gusts to 20 to 25 knots on Thursday afternoon
could lead to hazardous conditions for small craft in the
southwest arm of Lake Superior.

JJM

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth