Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1215 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...Updated Fire Weather...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A thunderstorm complex is expected to impact southwest Kansas
  early Friday morning, with areas of locally heavy rain and
  strong winds, while gradually diminishing.

- A rapid heating trend is expected Friday through the weekend.
  Expect afternoon temperatures of 100-105 to be common both
  Saturday and Sunday, with some near record highs likely. An
  elevated risk of wildfire spread is evident Saturday and
  Sunday afternoons.

- Hot, above normal afternoon temperatures will continue Monday
  through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Late evening infrared satellite imagery depicted an impressive
mesoscale convective system (MCS) entering NW KS. This MCS has
shown no signs of weakening, probably a function of excellent
outflow aloft per cirrus on satellite, but is just now showing
some of the initial signs of weakening. The apex of the bowing
segment is moving due south as of 11 pm, and will enter the
northern zones through the early morning hours while gradually
weakening. For short term pops, followed the general track of
the latest 00z ARW solution, which has been one of the favored
CAM solutions the past couple days. Increased pops greatly over
the current NBM dry solution. Primary risk from storms through
early morning will be outflow wind gusts of 50-60 mph north of
K-96, with subsequent weakening after that and with southern
extent. Current thinking is MCS will dissipate roughly over the
central zones, around DDC, during the predawn hours.

All models show significant warming Friday, with a net warming
of +3 to +5C at 850 mb, along with modest height rises, and much
improved boundary layer mixing and stronger south winds. Lee
troughing over eastern Colorado will support south winds of
20-30 mph Friday afternoon with temperatures well into the 90s.

A dry forecast is evident Friday and Saturday for all zones, as
subsidence prevails. The heat will continue to intensify
Saturday, with another net warming of +3C at 850 mb, and more of
a SWly downslope contribution. As we have seen much of this
summer, NBM guidance continues to be a few degrees too cool with
these excessively hot days. Added 1-2 degrees across the board
for Saturday and Sunday afternoons, with afternoon temperatures
of 100-105 common both days. Heat indices will remain less than
105 Saturday, with no heat advisory planned. Apparent
temperatures will be near 105 across southeast zones for a few
hours Sunday afternoon, where a heat advisory will likely be
required. The hottest guidance is preferred, with 00z MOS
guidance in the 103-105 range for DDC, and this would threaten
record highs this weekend. Strong south to southwest winds are
expected each afternoon, 3-5 mph stronger than NBM guidance, and
this will amplify the blow dryer, dehydration effect for
people, pets and livestock outside this weekend.

Midlevel high pressure over Texas Sunday will elongate into a
longer ridge axis early next week, but remained centered over
the central and southern plains. As such, afternoon temperatures
will remain well above normal, within a few degrees of 100 each
day. Again, NBM is probably a few degrees too cool in this
anomalously hot pattern for early September. Rain chances will
be minimal to absent through early next week, but some limited
thunderstorm activity may clip the northwest zones at peak
heating each day, furthest from the subsidence of the ridge
axis, and nearer enhanced SWly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 933 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Radar and satellite imagery at 0230z Fri depicted an impressive
mesoscale convective system (MCS) over SW Nebraska, moving due
south toward SW KS. System is quite organized and expect it to
impact the northern airports (GCK/HYS) to some extent overnight.
Latest RRFS/ARW solutions show storms and associated outflow
winds at least near HYS/GCK 06-09z Fri, and started by including
a CB/VCTS mention at those airports overnight. TAF amendments
are expected early Friday, pending how well the MCS maintains
organization through tonight. Primary risk from storms through
sunrise will be outflow winds gusting 40-50 kts. Otherwise, VFR
will continue through this TAF period through daylight Friday.
After 15z Fri, stronger south winds are expected at all
airports, gusting 25-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Hotter afternoon temperatures well into the 90s will lower
relative humidity to near 30% Friday afternoon, with elevated
south winds of 20-30 mph.

Even hotter temperatures of 100-105 are expected Saturday
and Sunday afternoons, which will lower minimum relative humidity
to 20-25% both afternoons. South to southwest winds will be
stronger over the weekend, gusting over 30-40 mph at times,
resulting in an elevated risk of wildfire spread where fuels are
available.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

KSZ030-044-045-280630-
Lane KS-Trego KS-Ness KS-
1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL IMPACT NESS...SOUTHWESTERN TREGO AND
EASTERN LANE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 1240 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow boundary ahead
of thunderstorms  along a line extending from near Pendennis to near
Utica to 8 miles north of Ransom to near Trego Center. Movement was
south at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Ransom, Utica, Arnold, and Pendennis around 1245 AM CDT.
  Dighton around 1255 AM CDT.
  Alamota and Beeler around 100 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Ness City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 9960 3832 9992 3826 10024 3840 10047
      3870 10043 3870 10016 3877 10015 3879 10001
      3887 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 006DEG 39KT 3868 10039 3871 10017 3875 9999
3881 9986

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
121 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

KSZ030-031-045-046-065-280715-
Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
121 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NESS...SOUTHEASTERN
TREGO...NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE...RUSH AND SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES
THROUGH 215 AM CDT...

At 121 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Ellis to 9 miles southeast of Cedar Bluff to
near Brownell to near Ransom. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  McCracken around 125 AM CDT.
  Bazine, Alexander, Hargrave, and Antonino around 140 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Schoenchen,
Liebenthal, Nekoma, La Crosse, Rush Center and Bison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 9962 3872 9918 3837 9918 3823 9933
      3825 9957 3826 9957 3828 9984 3866 10011
      3867 9978 3877 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 319DEG 30KT 3893 9957 3873 9958 3863 9973 3862
9997

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO