Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
508 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front late this afternoon/evening will likely initiate
  isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storm generally
  east of a Hays to Larned line.

- Larger round of strong to marginally severe storms likely
  overnight, but track of this activity likely remaining north
  along and/or north of I-70 corridor.

- After a relief from the heat Wednesday, a build-up toward
  another heat wave in store for the weekend into early next
  week.

- Record or at least near-record highs well above 100 degrees
  Sunday and/or Monday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Early this afternoon, the downslope thermal ridge was pushing well
into southwest and south central Kansas with multiple automated
stations at or above 97F before 18Z (1 PM CDT). This is on par if
not a degree or two above the hourly NBM temperatures, so we are
well on our way to highs in the 103 to 107F range, east of generally
an Elkhart to Dodge City to Ness City line. Thankfully, relief is on
the way in the form of the next cold front, but it will not be
pushing south until later this evening. An isolated strong/severe
thunderstorm or two still appears likely along the surface frontal
zone with much of the CAMs and 12Z HREF LPMM Composite Reflectivity
field suggesting best zone somewhere southeast of HYS or so. Should
any convective activity form along the front in our eastern CWA, it
will quickly move deeper into central Kansas. The next larger round
of strong to potentially severe storms will take shape later tonight
in the post-frontal upslope regime across northeastern Colorado,
southwestern Nebraska, and adjacent far northwestern Kansas. A
mesoscale convective system (MCS) is likely to evolve out of this
late evening development and track east-southeastward toward and
eventually along the I-70 corridor, lasting much of the overnight
into the early morning hours along the post-frontal
instability/moisture axis where MCS maintenance parameters will be
greatest.  As such, we will keep the 30-40 POPs going up north
overnight with potential for these POPs to be increased as we get
closer to this event as track/maintenance of overnight MCS becomes a
bit more clear.

Following tonight's cold front, Wednesday looks to be refreshingly
"cooler" with highs upper 80s to lower 90s, but as the upper level
ridge axis makes another run at expanding back north, so will the
850mb and surface temperatures. Another heat wave appears to be on
track starting this weekend lasting into early next week with Sunday
and Monday the hottest days in the current forecast. NBM
temperatures continue to tick upward with 75th percentile MaxT on
Sunday in Barber County 110+ -- easily record/near record territory
for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 506 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Flight conditions are forecast to be mostly in VFR contingent on if
HYS sees storms tonight. Currently a frontal boundary has descended
across the area having passed through GCK and HYS by the start of
the TAF period. This will reach DDC in the first couple hours and
LBL a few hours later. This will shift winds out of the
north/northeast at around the same speed (10-15KTs). Storms are
forecast to develop and move north of HYS with ensembles keeping
chances of reaching at HYS around 20-30%. As a result of >50%
chances of thunderstorms north of HYS, a VCTS was included but a
thunderstorm is possible.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ065-066-
078>081-087>090.

&&

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...KBJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
646 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     Hail             7 ENE Ash Valley        38.35N 99.10W
08/18/2026  E1.00 Inch       Rush               KS   Public

            Report of quarter-size hail.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
703 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

KSZ064-190030-
Hodgeman KS-
703 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 703 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Hanston, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Hodgeman County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 9983 3811 9980 3813 9957 3791 9957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 276DEG 12KT 3802 9973

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
708 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

KSZ065-066-190045-
Stafford KS-Pawnee KS-
708 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND
NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 708 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pawnee Rock, or near Larned, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Radium around 720 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 9884 3819 9916 3835 9905 3835 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9874
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 296DEG 17KT 3824 9902

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
727 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 ENE Larned            38.23N 99.00W
08/18/2026  M60 MPH          Pawnee             KS   Public

            Personal weather station.

&&

RMB

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