Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- T-storms are possible (20-30%) this afternoon and Saturday
  afternoon and then each day from Monday through Thursday.

- Hot weather will return Saturday with highs in the 90s.

- There are small chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms each day
  next week; and this could ultimately result in beneficial
  rain for many when considering the entire period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A jet streak was approaching southwest Kansas today ahead of an
upper level trough over the Rockies. With increasing low level
moisture, surface heating and the lack of a strong capping
inversion, severe storms are possible with large hail this
evening. One round of storms will affect locations closer to the
OKlahoma state line after 4 pm while other storms will likely
move into far western Kansas later this evening. It is unclear
if these storms will form into organized clusters so
thunderstorm coverage is uncertain.

A closed low over the western United States will open up and
progress eastward through Saturday before gradually moving
northward thereafter. Thus, no strong frontal passages are
forecast. With the increased mid level westerlies, a dry line
is expected to set up along a line from WaKeeney to Dodge City
Saturday afternoon. A farther west location of the dry line is
favored rather than model solutions that push it into central
Kansas. Given the relatively cool mid level temperatures and hot
surface temperatures along the dry line, a few thunderstorms
will form and move eastward, with the best chances (20-30%) in
places like Larned, Pratt and Greensburg. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail are possible with the storms. Given the formation
of a capping inversion above the increasing low level moisture,
dewpoints will likely reach into the lower 70s ahead of the dry
line, leading to strong instability. The limiting factor on
hail size is the lack of shear between 500mb and anvil level,
which will reduce precipitation evacuation from the updrafts.

After a break Sunday, there are additional chances for t-storms
Monday and Tuesday along the southern periphery of the
aforementioned trough. Also, embedded disturbances along the
southern edge of the westerlies could help with larger scale
forcing. The storms Monday could also be severe with large hail
and damaging winds. Whether any evening t-storms Monday can
grow upscale into a large cluster and bring widespread overnight
rain Monday night remains to be seen; but locally heavy rains
are a possibility given the weak mid level flow. By Tuesday the
upper level flow weakens further, with the potential for storm
severity decreasing.

Even though 500mb heights will be relatively high mid next week,
the various ensemble means continue to indicate a weakness in
the height field somewhere across the central or southern
plains. This could serve to temper high temperatures (instead
of getting very hot) and also help keep low level moisture in
place across southwest Kansas instead of mixing it out in the
vertical. Although the potential for high end severe is very
low, the potential for locally heavy rain is higher due to slow
storm movement. Rain chances are low to moderate at any given
point at specific times; but much higher when considering that
there will be isolated to scattered t-storms each day in
different spots. And the various model ensemble means show
weekly rain amounts (this evening through mid next week) of 1"
in central Kansas and .5 to .75" across far western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern
Colorado are expected to drift into west central Kansas and possibly
portions of southwest Kansas this evening, potentially affecting the
vicinity of KGCK and KHYS generally after 01-03Z. Another area of
thunderstorms developing in northwest Oklahoma will move northeast
into south central Kansas this evening, staying mainly east of KDDC.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites
through late Saturday morning. Southerly winds around 10 to 20kt with
gusts up to 25kt are expected to persist through early Saturday as
lee side troughing remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
548 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

KSZ090-292315-
Barber KS-
548 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BARBER COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 548 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of
Hardtner to near Burlington. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Kiowa around 555 PM CDT.
  Hazelton around 600 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9871 3708 9883 3733 9860 3716 9835
      3700 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 203DEG 33KT 3709 9874 3689 9844

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

KSZ064-078-079-292345-
Hodgeman KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
608 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FORD...SOUTHEASTERN
HODGEMAN AND WEST CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 608 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Spearville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bellefont around 615 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 9974 3783 9985 3808 9968 3794 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 220DEG 28KT 3786 9974

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

KSZ079-080-292345-
Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
618 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN KIOWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 618 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mullinville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Kiowa
and southwestern Edwards Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 9956 3768 9956 3786 9950 3779 9922
      3758 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 207DEG 26KT 3767 9950

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

KSZ090-292345-
Barber KS-
621 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN BARBER COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM CDT...

At 621 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Medicine Lodge, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Medicine Lodge around 625 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3707 9847 3719 9869 3747 9849 3747 9847
      3746 9846 3739 9846 3738 9835 3719 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 214DEG 24KT 3720 9859

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO