Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick up across
  south central Kansas late afternoon through early evening.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures arrive tonight and stick around
  through at least Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

***MESOSCALE DISCUSSION***

Current satellite depicts cumulus development ahead of a
boundary stretching from Meade northeastward into Pawnee and
Stafford Counties. A few convective attempts have already
started, with the primary deep convection more northeast of the
area in central Kansas. A brief landspout could occur on any
initial development given the strong surface vorticity, steep
low-level lapse rates, and stationary nature of the boundary.

After around 3-4 PM, convective evolution should transition to
more robust storms down and along this boundary. Per
mesoanalysis, effective bulk shear of 45-55 knots and MLCAPE of
3000-4000 J/kg suggests supercells. Damaging winds, very large
hail, and a tornado risk is expected to materialize, especially
as low-level shear increasing into the evening. The ultimate
extent of significant severe weather will be contingent on if
activity can stay more discrete. The ceiling is high for
significant impacts, but trends will be monitored in the coming
hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low pushing east through eastern
Utah into western Colorado. Near the surface, a quasi-stationary
frontal boundary extends from the eastern Texas Panhandle northeastward
through northwest Oklahoma into south central Kansas.

Another round of thunderstorms (50-70% chance) are expected to
develop across central/south central Kansas late today as the SREF
indicates an embedded upper level shortwave within a larger scale
trough quickly cycling northeast through the Colorado Rockies this
afternoon, and farther up into the Upper Midwest this evening. In
response, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary is forecast to move
very little through early evening before being dislodged southward
by a secondary frontal boundary surging in from the north. Ample
moisture pooling south of the boundary with surface dewpoints well
up into the mid/upper 60s(F) to near 70F will provide significant
instability with MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg. Despite a
less than robust southwest flow aloft (<50kt), thunderstorm
development is likely late this afternoon as the core of the upper
level shortwave passes just to our northwest in conjunction with a
weakening cap as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen from peak daytime
heating. The HREF supports this showing a 20-40% probability of 6-hr
QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch across south central Kansas, generally
southeast of a Larned to Minneola line by late this evening. Strong
instability and favorable deep layer shear will increase severe
potential, including large hail and possibly a tornado or two. Drier
conditions will then take hold through at least early Wednesday with
drier air spreading southward into western Kansas while surface high
pressure shifts eastward across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest.

Unseasonably cool temperatures are forecast tonight as much cooler
air surges southward into western Kansas behind a cold front pushing
through western Kansas into northern Oklahoma early/mid-evening,
dropping the H85 5C isotherm well down into extreme southwest Kansas.
With the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures dipping
below 45F across the region in question to a 30-50% probability of
temperatures falling below 50F in south central Kansas, expect lows
generally down into the 40s(F) with the upper 30s(F) possible out
near the Colorado line. Temperatures remain below normal Tuesday
as surface high pressure in the Upper Midwest helps reinforce a
the cooler air mass across western Kansas within an easterly upslope
flow with H85 temperatures ranging from around 10C in central Kansas
to near 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Considering the HREF shows
a 70-90% probability of temperatures topping 65F in west central/central
Kansas to a better than 90% probability of exceeding 65F farther south
near the Oklahoma line, look for afternoon highs mainly in the 60s(F).
Similar temperatures are likely Wednesday under the influence of
a prevailing easterly upslope flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected for areas along and north of
a GCK to DDC line over the next few hours as stratus forms and
tracks into the region from the north. For DDC specifically,
visibility issues from haze are expected to be the main driver
of MVFR conditions, through some low stratus may cause brief
periods of lower ceilings. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions are
expected behind the front, especially with thunderstorms
tracking to the east of area terminals. Winds across the region
remain mostly out of the north, with gusty winds remaining
overnight and into the late morning. By late morning to early
afternoon, expect a subtle shift to more northeasterly winds,
and as this wind shift occurs, gusty conditions should begin to
diminish. By late morning, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ074>078-
084>088.

&&

UPDATE...Bennett
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...WFO LBF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
458 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     Hail             2 ENE Windhorst         37.79N 99.62W
05/18/2026  E1.00 Inch       Ford               KS   Public

            Social media report of quarter-sized hail.

&&

RMB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
537 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     Hail             3 S Saint John          37.96N 98.76W
05/18/2026  E1.00 Inch       Stafford           KS   Emergency Mngr

            Reported nickel to quarter-size hail.

&&

RMB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
615 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Hail             4 SSE Trousdale         37.76N 99.06W
05/18/2026  E1.00 Inch       Edwards            KS   Public

            Social media report of quarter-size hail.

&&

RMB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     Hail             2 E Lewis               37.94N 99.22W
05/18/2026  E1.25 Inch       Edwards            KS   Public

            Social media report of half dollar sized
            hail.

&&

RMB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
657 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     Hail             6 N Haviland            37.70N 99.11W
05/18/2026  E2.00 Inch       Kiowa              KS   Public

            Social media report with picture.

&&

RMB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
721 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

KSZ081-190045-
Pratt KS-
721 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN PRATT COUNTY THROUGH 745
PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Preston, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Pratt
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 9865 3777 9866 3781 9846 3747 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 261DEG 48KT 3770 9855

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO