Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
455 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southwest winds Monday gusting 35-45 mph.

- Near record heat Monday afternoon, with temperatures near 100.

- Scattered thunderstorms favoring the northwest zones Monday
  evening, with the primary risk of damaging outflow wind gusts
  of 60-70 mph.

- Strong cold front arrives Tuesday, with a large temperature
  gradient across SW KS (much cooler north, still hot south).
  Strong northeast winds and falling temperatures Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
  afternoon and Tuesday night, some of which may be strong with
  locally heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Strong summer subtropical ridge was centered over the
Mississippi valley at midday, with southwest midlevel flow aloft
over SW KS. Satellite imagery indicated the eastern periphery of
the monsoon circulation over SW KS, with mid and high clouds
northwest of Dodge City. Radar indicated a few sprinkles
embedded in this monsoon plume across the northwest zones.
CAMs are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will
redevelop in this moisture plume after 4 pm, favoring these
northwest zones. Primary risk in the hot, mixed boundary layer
environment will be outflow winds of 50-70 mph, per SPC 5-15%
wind probability for northern zones. High based thunderstorms
should focus along I-70 Monday evening, and NBM correctly has
its higher pops here.

Elsewhere, strong southwest winds will continue through sunset,
gusting 35-45 mph. Downslope compression will send temperatures
to near the records for September 14 (100 at DDC).

Fortunately, Monday's heat will be short lived, as a strong cold
front will advance through SW KS Tuesday. With the cold front's
timing during the diurnal heating cycle, a large temperature
range will unfold Tuesday, from 60s and 70s north, to near 100
southeast. Cold front is expected to enter northern zones at
sunrise, and exit Barber county by 7 pm. Exact high temperatures
for each location will depend of frontal timing, and a non-
diurnal curve downward is expected behind the front with
elevated northeast winds. 12z GFS shows decent cold advection
for September, with 850 mb temperatures falling through the
teens C. Increasing and lowering midlevel clouds will also add
to the fall-like feel Tuesday afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop along/behind the advancing
cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening, favoring the southeast
zones. Shear and instability will both be modest at best, but
stronger storm clusters will be capable of outflow wind gusts,
per SPC marginal 5% wind probability southeast zones. Cold
front will begin retreating northward quickly Tuesday night,
with winds quickly returning to the south through Wednesday.
This warm advection process should encourage at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall probable
through Tuesday night.

NBM reloads above normal temperatures back into the lower 90s as
soon as Wednesday, but much global model guidance keeps SW KS in
the 80s. Higher confidence in the heat returning Thursday, well
into the 90s, along with a dry forecast, as the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge retrogrades westward onto the
high plains. The heat will continue Friday afternoon, before the
next strong cold front arrives next weekend. MEX and NBM
guidance suggests some locations will remain in the 70s Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 455 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Radar at 2140z Mon depicted several strong thunderstorms near
the HYS and GCK terminals, moving northeast. Some of this
activity will impact GCK/HYS over the next few hours, with
outflow wind gusts to near 50 kts the primary risk to aviation.
Amendments are likely for GCK/HYS TAFs as storms approach. Light
south winds will prevail overnight, with varying amounts of mid
and high clouds. Models are trending stronger with the expected
cold front passage Tuesday, expected to clear all airports by
18z Tue. Increased northeast winds behind the cold front,
gusting 30-32 kts Tuesday, with lowering midlevel clouds.
Ceilings may lower to MVFR Tuesday morning at GCK.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

KSZ084-142230-
Morton KS-
445 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MORTON COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Stonington, or 15 miles northwest of Elkhart,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Morton
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 10204 3739 10186 3727 10164 3705 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 225DEG 22KT 3718 10206

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 NE Kendall           38.07N 101.42W
09/14/2026  M58 MPH          Kearny             KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
452 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     16 NNE Kendall          38.14N 101.42W
09/14/2026  M58 MPH          Kearny             KS   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
456 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

KSZ030-044-045-142245-
Lane KS-Trego KS-Ness KS-
456 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NESS...TREGO AND
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 456 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms across southwestern Trego into Lane County, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Trego Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 9961 3862 9959 3828 10034 3868 10025
      3870 10024 3870 10015 3894 10015 3913 9982
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 234DEG 28KT 3874 10018

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

KSZ062-074-075-084-142245-
Stanton KS-Kearny KS-Grant KS-Morton KS-
501 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MORTON...SOUTH
CENTRAL KEARNY...NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN STANTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Johnson City, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Big Bow around 515 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 10175 3739 10186 3752 10183 3782 10139
      3759 10120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 234DEG 27KT 3746 10174

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

KSZ044-045-063-064-142245-
Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Lane KS-Ness KS-
503 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...
SOUTHWESTERN NESS...NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN LANE
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Garden City, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Finney, southwestern Ness, northwestern Hodgeman and southeastern
Lane Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 10014 3800 10061 3800 10066 3797 10067
      3789 10084 3801 10090 3844 10034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 234DEG 27KT 3808 10069

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT