Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
526 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous heavy-rain producing thunderstorms likely tonight
  with an axis of 1 to 2" (locally more) of rain across portions
  of southwest and west central Kansas.

- Flood Watch has been issued (for flash flooding caused by
  excessive rainfall) for counties mainly west of a Cimarron to
  Ness City to La Crosse line for tonight.

- Not as hot Sunday and Monday, but a return to heat likely
  Tuesday, for most likely only one day, as another front pushes
  south across Kansas mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A heavy rainfall event is coming into better focus for much of
southwest and west central Kansas, as the North American Monsoon
circulation remains shunted farther east of its climatological
position with the upper level high centered over Arkansas. At the
surface, early afternoon observations were showing widespread
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s across all of southwest and west
central Kansas. Observations and clear air radar returns show a
nebulous mesolow circulation between DDC and GCK. A surface thermal
ridge was nosing northeast into the Red Hills region with
temperatures approaching 100F at Medicine Lodge on a south to
southwest wind. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is
likely in the 21-23Z time frame in vicinity of the mesolow and/or
the convergence axis near the hottest surface temperatures nearest
the Oklahoma line south of DDC.

The initial storms which develop within the hotter air mass
south/southeast of DDC will likely be more isolated or widely
scattered in nature, but the strongest storms will be capable of
severe downburst winds given the hot temperatures. Focus will then
turn farther west/southwest as a much more organized cluster of
strong to severe storms develop and mature across far southeastern
Colorado and adjacent far southwestern Kansas. All reliable short-
term, high-resolution CAMs and associated ensemble systems (namely
the HREF) show an impressive signal for a healthy mesoscale
convective system (MCS) tracking northeast within the lower
tropospheric Theta-E ridge. Latest NBM shows precipitable water
values of 1.60 to 1.75" across much of west central and southwest
Kansas, which is around the 95th percentile for southwest Kansas
this time of year. The above-mentioned meteorological setting along
with HREF LPMM QPF values showing max potential 2-3" rainfall, HRRR
run-to-run consistency of widely scattered 1.5 to 3" rainfall
amounts, and NBM 90th percentile QPF in the 2-3" range all support
potential for flash flooding with the strongest, slower-moving
storms. The best corridor for this activity among all the models is
roughly 50 miles either side of a line extending from Johnson to
Garden City to Dighton to Ellis. We have decided to issue a Flash
Flood Watch for these counties after collaboration with the NWS
Pueblo and NWS Goodland offices.

Tonight's heavy rainfall event will move on into northern/central
Kansas prior to sunrise Sunday. The effective frontal zone will push
fairly far to the south thanks to all the outflow from the MCS with
a light northeasterly wind prevailing across southwest Kansas. This
should knock afternoon temperatures down 7 to 10 degrees over much
of our southwest Kansas region with this "cooler", more moist air
mass hanging around through Monday. After Monday, the temperature
forecast becomes a little more challenging as a hot, downslope
southwest wind air mass redevelops thanks to a new surface low
forming over Nebraska. However, the magnitude of continued
evapotranspiration from all the recent rainfall may limit surface
heating potential -- otherwise, we would likely widespread highs
around 105 degrees again on Tuesday. Tuesday would most likely be
the best chance for widespread 100s, as another polar front moves
south into Kansas thanks to a fairly decent west-northwest flow
shortwave trough moving across Nebraska into Iowa. This polar front
will offer another increased chance for organized thunderstorm
activity Wednesday evening/night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A chance of thunderstorms may bring periods of MVFR to IFR
conditions to the TAF sites this evening into the early
overnight period. Otherwise expect increased coverage of mid to
high level cloudiness. Winds will be light and generally from a
northerly direction through tomorrow.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ030-031-043>045-
061>063-074>076.

&&

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
528 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

KSZ089-090-152315-
Barber KS-Comanche KS-
528 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BARBER AND CENTRAL
COMANCHE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 527 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Buttermilk, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Barber
and central Comanche Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3704 9954 3738 9914 3738 9910 3720 9882
      3700 9912 3700 9927
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 230DEG 20KT 3713 9934

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

FINCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

KSZ081-090-152345-
Pratt KS-Barber KS-
604 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BARBER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 604 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Barber
and southeastern Pratt Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3724 9836 3718 9875 3733 9886 3754 9852
      3743 9846 3739 9846 3738 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 240DEG 19KT 3732 9873

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

FINCH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
619 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSE Lake City         37.31N 98.79W
08/15/2026  M58 MPH          Barber             KS   Mesonet

            Kansas State Mesonet Lake City.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
629 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     Hail             3 NNW Wilburton         37.11N 101.79W
08/15/2026  M1.00 Inch       Morton             KS   NWS Employee

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
651 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

KSZ074-084-160030-
Stanton KS-Morton KS-
651 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MORTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN STANTON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 651 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Richfield, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Morton
and southeastern Stanton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 10162 3731 10187 3755 10193 3756 10156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 183DEG 29KT 3730 10176

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

FINCH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
656 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Richfield          37.26N 101.79W
08/15/2026  M64 MPH          Morton             KS   Mesonet

            Kansas State Mesonet Richfield.

&&

AS