Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1247 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another few degrees will be shaved off temperatures today
  across our northwest zones, with highs ranging from the low
  90s northwest to the 104-107 range southeast. The afternoon
  heat index will be near 110 across portions of south central
  Kansas. An extreme heat warning is in effect for Pratt,
  Stafford and Barber counties.

- Scattered, marginally severe thunderstorms are expected Friday
  afternoon/evening posing primarily a severe wind gust risk.

- Saturday will be very similar to Friday with afternoon highs
  in the 90s for most of the area and scattered, marginally
  severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft remains relatively unchanged with a large
and strong high pressure over the southeast CONUS and a developing
trough over northern California. Nearer to the surface, a small
pocket of low pressure resides over Wyoming.

Speaking of similarities, today will look very reminiscent of
yesterday. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the eastern 3
counties from 1 to 9 PM with apparent temperatures exceeded 110
degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the same time for
Comanche, Clark, Edwards, Kiowa, and Pawnee counties with apparent
temperatures up to 105 degrees. This reflects the
northwest/southeast gradient in temperatures. With areas near Scott
City, Hays, and Syracuse seeing highs around 95 degrees and Barber
county exceeding 105 degrees. Bottom line is that it will continue
to be hot. The storms chances tonight continue to eerily duplicate
how yesterday looked at this time. High-based storms with very
little shear (10-20 KTs via forecast soundings) accompanying modest
shear and moisture. The biggest difference in environment is that
the surface to 3 KM lapse rates are a little more favorable for
strong winds of 60-70 mph. However like yesterday, is only expected
to be possible in the strongest storms if even at all. CAMs in the
most recent runs have the strongest storms north of the forecast
area so the CWA may struggle to get severe winds again. Storms are
forecast to begin to initiate around 5 PM near the Oklahoma/Kansas
border and move northeastward

This is pattern is forecast to remain remarkably consistent.
Temperatures will be very similar on Saturday compared to Friday.
The storms are depicted by CAMs to also be very similar as the
environment at-large remains nearly identical. The lack of shear is
expected to tamper any high end threats, but modest lapse rates and
high CAPE could still generate severe hail and wind despite being
higher based storms. The NAMNST has some storms organizing and almost
bowing as it moves northeastward towards Hays. This needs to be
monitored as it will likely host the most potent severe threat if it
materializes (which should be taken skeptically between the uncertainty
and variability.

Sunday will finally be much cooler relative to the past few days
with highs primarily in the 80s other than the warmer far
southeastern counties. Yet again storm chances are possible with
most of the storms, and the ones with the most severe potential,
being nearer to the Colorado/Kansas border. More time will need to
elapse for CAMs to better resolve the progged storms and uncertainty
to decease.

Monday will be cooler, similar to Sunday, before Tuesday and the
rest of the week warms back up. Ensembles seem to hint at a solid
precipitation signal during the Wednesday/Thursday overnight.
Monitor for future updates regarding storms and the heat while
taking proper precautions!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Flight conditions are forecast to be most in VFR contingent on the
storms forecast later today. Winds will mostly be light at 5-10
variable or from the southwest. Around 22Z, storms are expected
across far SW Kansas and move northeastward. With the potentially
scattered and isolated nature especially initially, only a VCTS was
used with each site around a 20-30% chance for storms; GCK has the
best chance to see TSRA. The storm chances drop significantly in the
overnight around 7Z, but may linger around HYS for longer.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ065-079-080-
088-089.
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-
081-090.

&&

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
452 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

KSZ089-142230-
Comanche KS-
452 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN COMANCHE COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Buttermilk, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Comanche
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9917 3700 9950 3730 9934 3719 9901
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 223DEG 14KT 3714 9930

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

KSZ078-088-142245-
Clark KS-Ford KS-
510 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL FORD AND
NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 510 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Clark State Lake, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clark State Lake around 515 PM CDT.
  Kingsdown around 530 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9988 3758 9975 3745 9955 3745 9956
      3734 9982
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 223DEG 14KT 3740 9980

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

KSZ089-090-142245-
Barber KS-Comanche KS-
515 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BARBER AND
NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 515 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Wilmore, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Barber
and northeastern Comanche Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 9901 3725 9918 3738 9912 3737 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 208DEG 5KT 3727 9905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO

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