Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
430 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat wave continues through early next week, with afternoon
  temperatures well over 100 degrees. This will be a dry heat
  with strong south winds, increasing the risk of dehydration
  each afternoon. Drink plenty of water, and ensure pets and
  livestock have a sufficient water supply.

- A pattern change is expected late next week, with much cooler
  temperatures and improved rainfall opportunities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains downstream of a ridge centered across
the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is slowly strengthening across eastern Colorado.

Minimal thunderstorm chances (20%) exist across west central/central
Kansas this evening as the SREF indicates a weak upper level
shortwave and associated H5 vort maxima cycling southeast off
the ridge axis in the Northern Rockies into the high plains of
western Nebraska and northeast Colorado. Near the surface,
prevailing southerlies will support pooling moisture ahead of an
advancing dryline, providing modest instability with MUCAPE
values upward of 1000 J/kg or so. Despite weaker dynamic support
aloft, steeping mid- level lapse rates in vicinity of an axis
of increased low level convergence associated with the dryline
will set the stage for potential isolated thunderstorm
development this evening as H5 vort maxima transition through.
This is suggested by a few CAMs and the HREF pointing to only a
10 to 20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding a mere 0.1 of an
inch in vicinity of the I-70 corridor by late evening.
Hotter/drier conditions are likely the next couple of days as
southwesterly downsloping enhances a drier air mass across the
Western High Plains.

Very warm temperatures are forecast tonight as southwesterly
downsloping reinforces a warmer air mass across southwest/central
Kansas. With the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures
dropping below 75F in west central and extreme southwest Kansas to
to only a 10-20% probability of slipping below 75F in south central
Kansas, look for lows generally down into 70s(F). Southwesterly
downsloping will further enhance drier air into southwest Kansas
Sunday, nudging H85 temperatures up from Saturday with a little
above 30C in central Kansas to near 35C near the Colorado line.
Expect widespread afternoon highs topping 100F with the HREF showing
a widespread 80-90% probability of temperatures exceeding the
century mark. Similar conditions are likely Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, with scattered
cirrus. Radar at 2130z showed high based convection well NW of
GCK, moving southeast. This activity is expected to weaken and
not reach the GCK terminal, but will be monitored. Other
thunderstorms east of HYS are expected to remain east of that
airport. Elevated southwest winds currently will trend south
and remain elevated through tonight, with a strong low level jet
keeping the boundary layer mixed. Included low level wind shear
in TAFs as appropriate. After 15z Sun, southwest winds will
increase again at all airports, gusting 25-30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
403 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

KSZ061-082245-
Hamilton KS-
403 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 403 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Hartman, or 14 miles north of Coolidge, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph. Areas of blowing dust reducing
         visibility.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Hamilton County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10164 3790 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 309DEG 11KT 3824 10207

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

KSZ061-082330-
Hamilton KS-
445 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM MDT...

At 443 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coolidge, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph. Areas of blowing dust reducing
         visibility.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Coolidge around 450 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10157 3794 10156 3792 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 273DEG 24KT 3810 10205

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

KSZ043-082345-
Scott KS-
600 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN SCOTT COUNTY THROUGH 645
PM CDT...

At 600 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leoti, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph. Areas of blowing dust reducing
         visibility.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Modoc around 620 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10078 3833 10087 3836 10113 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 280DEG 18KT 3853 10125

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
622 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

KSZ043-061>063-074-090000-
Finney KS-Stanton KS-Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-Scott KS-
622 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HAMILTON...NORTHWESTERN KEARNY...
NORTHWESTERN FINNEY...SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT AND NORTHEASTERN STANTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT/600 PM MDT/...

At 622 PM CDT/522 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 16 miles southeast of
Tribune to 19 miles south of Holly. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph. Areas of blowing dust will
         reduce visibility. Dry lightning strikes may pose a
         wildfire risk.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Syracuse around 530 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 10205 3826 10188 3826 10113 3829 10112
      3827 10098 3759 10170 3776 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 302DEG 19KT 3827 10159 3778 10216

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
641 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

KSZ043-044-062-063-090030-
Finney KS-Lane KS-Kearny KS-Scott KS-
641 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN KEARNY...
NORTHWESTERN FINNEY...SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN LANE COUNTIES THROUGH
730 PM CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Modoc, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph. Areas of blowing dust reducing
         visibility. Dry lightning strikes may pose a wildfire risk.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Shallow Water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10056 3820 10071 3826 10138 3827 10112
      3866 10113 3870 10111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 290DEG 18KT 3845 10118

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER