Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances (40-60%) return to
  central/south central Kansas tonight and again late Monday.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures arrive mid-week.

- Critical fire weather conditions likely again Monday
  afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

***MESOSCALE DISCUSSION***

Latest satellite and radar show convective initiation attempts
along the dryline in northwest OK, with convection into central
Kansas along the dryline/cold front intersection. We continue to
monitor both storm modes into this evening with large hail and
damaging winds being the primary risk.

A tornado risk could materialize if any discrete storms along
the dryline can mature and sustain into this evening as the
low-level jet increase. 0-1 km SRH is expected to increase above
200-250 m2/s2 across south-central Kanas leading to that
increased tornado risk. This risk is still conditional.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave perturbation lifting
northeast through the Northern Plains downstream of a positively-
tilted larger scale upper level trough dipping southeast across the
Great Basin. Near the surface, low pressure is anchored in west central
Kansas with an attendant dryline extending southward through southwest
Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle.

Thunderstorm chances (40-60%) pick up this evening as the SREF points
to the aforementioned positively-tilted upper level trough closing
off as it turns more eastward toward the Four Corners Region overnight,
setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, low pressure situated in west
central Kansas is projected to lift northeast into north central
Kansas in response to the upper level perturbation across the Colorado
Rockies climbing northeast into the Dakotas with an attendant dryline
mixing eastward across much of southwest Kansas. Prevailing southerlies
ahead of the dryline will support ample moisture return with surface
dewpoints pushing well up into the 60s(F) to near 70F, increasing
instability with SBCAPE values reaching in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg.
Despite a less than robust flow aloft (+50kt field of westerlies)
and short-fuse model soundings showing decent capping in place,
sufficient forcing in vicinity of the dryline and subsequent warm
front extending off the surface low northeast into Nebraska may be
enough to support thunderstorm development by early evening as
indicated by most CAMs. The best chance for storm development is
across portions of central Kansas into south central Kansas where
the HREF indicates a 20-30% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25
of an inch by late evening. The higher instability combined with
sufficient deep layer shear will support severe potential with large
hail the primary threat. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible (40-60% chance) across
central/south central Kansas Monday as the closed upper low out
west begins to open up as it lifts northeast across the Colorado
Rockies into the high plains of western Nebraska. In response, a
surface low is projected to develop in southeast Colorado by late
afternoon, then quickly lift northeast through northern Kansas
Monday evening while an attendant dryline oscillates generally
across southwest Kansas. Deep-layer moisture will continue to
provide abundant instability ahead of the dryline in central
Kansas and south central Kansas. Thunderstorm development is
likely late Monday afternoon as the core of the aforementioned
upper level trough lifts northeast through the region in
conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates, interacting
with the dryline/quasi-stationary frontal boundary before it
begins to shift south on the back side of the departing surface
low. Again, the HREF paints the best chance for development to
be across central/south central Kansas where there is a 20-40%
probability of 6-hr QPF topping .25 of an inch by late Monday
evening.

A wide range of temperatures are likely tonight as a cold front
sinks slowly south into extreme western Kansas behind a departing
surface low up through north central Kansas into Nebraska. Much
cooler air will spread into west central Kansas, dropping H85
temperatures below 15C while much warmer temperatures hold steady
south of the boundary. The HREF supports this showing a 70-90%
probability of temperatures sliding below 55F in west central Kansas
and extreme southwest Kansas to 30-50% probability of temperatures
only dropping below 70F in south central Kansas. Temperatures are
forecast to be more seasonal in west central/central Kansas Monday
due to the projected stalled out frontal boundary in the area while
much warmer temperatures are likely farther south. The HREF shows
a 30-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 80F in vicinity
of the I-70 corridor to a 70-90% probability of temperatures topping
90F near and along the Oklahoma line in southwest Kansas, so look
for afternoon highs ranging from the generally the 80s(F) in west
central/central Kansas to the 90s(F) farther south. Much cooler air
arriving Tuesday behind the quasi-stationary boundary finally
dislodging southward will bring slightly below normal temperatures
to the area mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Strong southwesterly and southerly winds continue this evening
across central and southwest Kansas. Expect 20-25 knot winds
with gusts to 35-40 knots through the early parts of the evening
before diminishing a bit into tonight. A cold front will slowly
drift southeastward changing winds from southerly to
northeasterly overnight. With the front, a chance of storms will
be possible as well. HYS will have the best chance at those
storms, mainly after 02z.

Into Monday, winds increase again out of the southeast. Expect
20-30 knots with gusts 35-45 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Gusty southwest winds developing south of a warm front projected
to lift back north across southwest Kansas combined with much
drier air lowering relative humidity values below 15 percent will
produce critical fire conditions near and along the Oklahoma
line in extreme southwest Kansas Monday afternoon. Therefore, a
Red Flag Warning has been issued for the the area potentially
affected.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ074>077-
084>087.

&&

UPDATE...Bennett
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
924 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     Hail             Timken                  38.47N 99.18W
05/17/2026  E1.50 Inch       Rush               KS   Public

            mPing report of ping ball ball sized hail.

&&

RMB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
932 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Hail             2 N Rush Center         38.49N 99.31W
05/17/2026  M1.25 Inch       Rush               KS   Law Enforcement

            County dispatch reported half-dollar sized
            hail.

&&

RMB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
952 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Hail             Timken                  38.47N 99.18W
05/17/2026  M1.75 Inch       Rush               KS   Public

            Report was from social media with photos.

0906 PM     Hail             Nekoma                  38.47N 99.44W
05/17/2026  M2.00 Inch       Rush               KS   Public

            Report received from social media.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
959 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     Hail             9 S Nekoma              38.34N 99.42W
05/17/2026  M1.25 Inch       Pawnee             KS   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from 9 S
            Nekoma. Social media report of half-dollar
            sized hail.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1014 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

KSZ045-046-064-065-180345-
Hodgeman KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Ness KS-
1014 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NESS...NORTHERN
HODGEMAN...NORTHERN PAWNEE AND RUSH COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...

At 1014 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Otis to 12 miles northeast of Kalvesta.
These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  La Crosse, Otis, Bison, Rush Center, Alexander, and Nekoma around
  1020 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Bazine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9903 3805 10010 3836 10011 3851 9982
      3870 9915 3870 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 180DEG 3KT 3860 9904 3819 10013

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1109 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

KSZ046-065-066-180445-
Stafford KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-
1109 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE...
NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM
CDT...

At 1109 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ash Valley, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Pawnee, northwestern Stafford and southeastern Rush Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 9885 3821 9921 3842 9929 3849 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9886
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 257DEG 33KT 3832 9917

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

FINCH