Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Dodge City, KS

627 
WWUS53 KDDC 092153
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
453 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

KSC097-092215-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-260709T2215Z/
Kiowa KS-
453 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY...

At 453 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Haviland,
moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Haviland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3754 9921 3762 9920 3771 9902 3746 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 287DEG 6KT 3757 9914 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TATRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
410 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weakening upper level ridge will support afternoon highs today
  ranging from the low 90s north to the upper 90s/near 100
  south.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday
  evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat
  especially on Thursday.

- Long dry and quiet stretch after Friday expected with
  seasonably hot highs in the 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The synoptic pattern is a primarily zonal pattern aloft with a weak
high pressure over the southern corners of the CONUS. Nearer to the
surface, weak surface lows are present immediately along the sides
of a subtle surface high pressure system in Colorado. Highs today
will continue the relatively consistent streak of mostly 90 degree
highs similar to the last few days as well as deeper into the
forecast period. The forecast focus then shifts to the storm
potential tonight.

Since the start of the week, models and ensembles have depicted a
notable signal for an MCS tonight. CAMs have storms initiating in
Colorado around 2-3 PM and congealing into a line around 7 PM just
before crossing into Kansas. The elevated nature will nearly
eliminate the tornado threat tonight. Shear via modeled soundings
are only around 30 KTs with CAPE around 1500 J/kg. More notably,
DCAPE is at 2000 J/kg. If these storms come to fruition as forecast,
wind gusts of 60-70 mph are expected. Most CAMs have a section of
the line becoming concentrated bowing segment at some points in the
overnight. The HRRR has it around 11 PM around highway 183, the
NAMNST around 11 PM near highway 83, and the WRF-ARW around 9 PM
near highway 83. All this to say there is a wide spread of potential
outcomes particularly relating to an enhanced bowing segment with
the storms. If this materializes, wind gusts with the enhanced
segment could exceed 70 mph wind gusts with damaging winds. Severe
hail of around an inch is possible, but remains an auxiliary threat
to the wind concerns. The line of storms are forecast to reach
nearly the entire CWA, although some area very easily could remain
dry with breaks in the line or not covering the entire area. The
lowest chance for storms are near the Oklahoma border, but storm
chances remain above 20%. Storms are forecast to clear out by around
3 AM. Some CAMs have weaker cells developing ahead of the line, but
the chances seems scattered and very uncertain relative to the bulk
of the storms in the line. These would likely also pose a hail
threat if their strength can be maximized. Localized flooding is
possible, but the storms are forecast to move fast enough to
mitigate widespread flooding.

Friday will again be in the upper 80s/90s. Another round of storms
are expected Friday night although more limited in coverage and
intensity. The NAMNST has the forecast sounding depicting a similar
amount of CAPE and shear. There is a lot more CIN expected to be
present and provides a failure point for potential storms. These
storms are forecast to occur primarily around 10 PM-2 AM with the
best chances in far SW Kansas. Even if storms on Thursday
overperform, there is enough time on Friday to recover assuming the
cap can be broken. Again with these storms the primary threat is
strong winds. Continued monitoring for subsidence and the cap will
be needed.

The rest of the forecast period is forecast to be dry and is backed
up by models. The only notable weather is the continued seasonal
heat with highs in the 90s. Winds will most be light out of the
south/southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR will prevail through this TAF period, with varying amounts
of mid/high clouds. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near
DDC over the next 1-2 hours. A complex of thunderstorms is
expected to spread over SW KS tonight, with primary impacts from
west to east during the 03-09z Fri time frame. Included
convective TEMPO groups at GCK-DDC-HYS for this line of storms
tonight, with the primary risk outflow wind gusts to near
50 kts. Model consensus keeps tonight's complex north of LBL,
as such kept the LBL TAF dry this update. Winds will remain
light through Friday, outside the influence of thunderstorm
outflows.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ090.

&&

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
408 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

KSZ078-080-092145-
Kiowa KS-Ford KS-
408 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FORD AND
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mullinville. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Ford
and northwestern Kiowa Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9964 3767 9963 3770 9934 3747 9938
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 283DEG 3KT 3761 9957

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
421 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

KSZ080-092200-
Kiowa KS-
421 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 421 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Haviland, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Haviland around 425 PM CDT.
  Wellsford around 440 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 9926 3762 9926 3771 9902 3748 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 267DEG 13KT 3759 9918

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO