Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
643 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More scattered thunderstorms Friday evening; some may be
  severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Most of Independence Day will be dry. Scattered thunderstorms
  are expected Saturday night, favoring areas northeast of Dodge
  City. Some storms may be severe and impact outdoor holiday
  activities and fireworks displays.

- About 5 degrees less hot Sunday behind a weak cold front.

- Typical summer weather early next week; typical afternoon heat
  in the 90s, with isolated thunderstorms at peak heating each
  day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Midday satellite/radar imagery indicated the remnants of the
Nebraska morning mesoscale convective system across NE Kansas.
This complex has pushed an outflow boundary southward into
SW KS, evident on radar/satellite/surface observations. Gravity
waves were also propagating south, clearly evident on radar and
satellite imagery. Midday mesoanalysis outlined strong
instability building rapidly across southwest zones, with MLCAPE
already reaching 3000 J/kg at midday. 12z NAM/ARW, both of which
performed exceptionally well with convective placement Thursday,
both show convective initiation favoring the southwest zones
(southwest of DDC) after 4 pm, progressing eastward into the
central counties through early evening. Just like yesterday,
primary risk will be strong/damaging outflow winds of
60-70 mph from linear segments in a well mixed boundary layer.
Before that happens, there may be a 1-2 hour window of
supercell structures with related 1-2 inch diameter hail
potential, particularly with the remnant outflow boundary
settling over the region, enhancing storm relative helicity at
least locally. SPC continues with 5% marginal wind/hail
probability, but an upgrade to slight risk may become necessary
for the central/southwest zones should the ARW/NAM verify
again. Just like yesterday, storms are expected to dissipate
rapidly around sunset.

Most of Independence Day will feature quiet, typical summer
weather with hot afternoon temperatures well into the 90s to
near 100. Barber County will be near heat advisory criteria
(105) for the peak heating hours, but after coordinating with
WFOs Wichita/Norman, will punt this possible issuance to
tonight's shift. Regardless, the heat will be an impact Saturday
given the outdoor holiday activities. Notably, much less wind is
forecast Saturday, which will decrease evaporative cooling for
those outdoors. Remember the importance of water hydration, even
if you are not thirsty.

A stronger convective signal remains apparent Saturday evening,
after 7 pm, as a shortwave rounds the northeast periphery of the
strengthening upper high over New Mexico. Model guidance has
shown some consistency favoring the northeast zones, northeast
of Dodge City, for most of this activity. A weak composite
outflow/cold front boundary sagging southward will contribute
upslope easterly components, increasing moisture and shear
availability, favoring storm organization. At least marginally
severe wind/hail is probable from any storms Saturday night,
and very importantly, given the outdoor activity impacts,
dangerous cloud to ground lightning will be common.
Thunderstorms are expected to impact at least some of the
fireworks displays across Kansas Saturday night; have several
ways to receive warnings, and seek shelter indoors if storms
approach. NBM pop grids continue to favor the northeast/east
zones Saturday night.

Although it will hardly be noticeable, models remain consistent
showing about 5 degrees of cooling on Sunday behind the weak
boundary passage. Light northeast winds Sunday will trim
afternoon temperatures back to within a few degrees of 90, but
humidity will remain uncomfortably high.

Quiet weather typical of summer is expected early next week,
with a slow warming trend upward through the 90s. With the
subtropical upper high relocated to the SW US by then, will
eventually have to monitor for storms arriving from the Rockies,
especially at night, in the new NWly flow aloft. This synoptic
setup appears favored Wednesday and Thursday, and NBM pops
correctly reflect this change in pattern by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Outside of a few thunderstorms departing Liberal, and some
activity developing across north-central Kansas, VFR conditions
are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be generally
variable across the area given a weak low pressure across
southwest Kansas. Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday late
afternoon again, but uncertain is large on exact placement given
low confidence on initiating boundary placement, as that will be
dependent on storms overnight. Storms may need to be added to
TAFs in later updates, but have left them out given the low
confidence for now.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Bennett

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

KSZ084-085-032230-
Stevens KS-Morton KS-
506 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MORTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN STEVENS COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 506 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Rolla, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Morton
and southwestern Stevens Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 10160 3713 10141 3700 10140 3700 10161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 266DEG 11KT 3702 10154

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
532 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

KSZ085-032315-
Stevens KS-
532 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN STEVENS COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Feterita, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Stevens
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10155 3709 10156 3711 10112 3700 10112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 262DEG 6KT 3702 10148

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
546 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

KSZ086-087-032330-
Seward KS-Meade KS-
546 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 546 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hayne, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Seward
and southwestern Meade Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 10088 3712 10052 3700 10056 3700 10086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 257DEG 9KT 3702 10077

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
725 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     Hail             10 NNE Ogallah          39.11N 99.64W
07/03/2026  E1.25 Inch       Trego              KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
756 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     Hail             8 NNW Ogallah           39.10N 99.77W
07/03/2026  E1.00 Inch       Trego              KS   Public

&&

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