Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A small MCS moving out of Colorado late tonight

- Hot and dry weekend

- Hot with isolated storms next business week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Most of the CAMs show storms developing on the higher terrain of
Colorado later today. This may lead to a small MCS moving across
southwest Kansas later tonight. Areal coverage of storms is expected
to be much less in coverage then what we have seen recently. SPC
has a risk level 1 out of 5 across western Kansas. So, storms may
produce marginal wind and hail reports. Again, this complex is forecast
to be relatively small per the CAMs, so much of the FA will remain
dry tonight. Winds will eventually shift SE by evening. These southerly
winds and dewpoints running in the 60s will lead to mild lows tonight
with values in the 60s, except 70s across south-central Kansas.

The global models and their ensemble counterparts show fairly high
500 hPa heights continuing throughout the weekend. This supports
the notion of a hot and dry forecast. Highs both days will be in
the upper 90sF to around 100F. Lows will trend warmer, and actually
by Sunday morning, warm lows in the 70s are expected for the FA.
In fact, Medicine Lodge may only see a low of around 80F.

Low to mid level moisture advecting around the large anticyclone is
expected by the models and their ensemble counterparts Monday and
Tuesday. This could lead to very isolated storms both days. Coverage
is expected to be limited, so much of the FA will remain just dry
and hot outside of this limited convection. Highs for the beginning
of the business week will continue to remain seasonably hot with
values in the upper 90sF to around 100F. Lows will be warm too with
values only bottoming out in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations show
low-end VFR to high-end MVFR cigs are spread out across
southwest KS amidst modest southeasterly winds aoa 12 kts.
Through the overnight period, thunderstorms and/or MVFR stratus
may impact all terminals, but conditions should improve back to
VFR by sunrise everywhere except HYS where guidance suggests
MVFR stratus will linger into the late morning. Otherwise, light
and variable winds overnight will increase out of the south to
the 10-15 kt range by the end of the period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Springer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
722 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

KSZ090-270100-
Barber KS-
722 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BARBER COUNTY
THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Capron, or 7 miles northeast of Alva, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kiowa around 740 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9835 3700 9874 3716 9870 3710 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 206DEG 17KT 3689 9860

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RBURG