Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
732 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active, wet pattern will continue through Friday, with
  periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will
  produce severe wind gusts, large hail, and locally
  heavy/flooding rainfall.

- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of southwest Kansas
  until 1 AM Friday morning. Additional rainfall from the next
  thunderstorm complex, on saturated soils, may lead to
  excessive runoff and flooding concerns.

- Additional scattered thunderstorms Thursday through Friday
  will continue to pose a severe wind, hail, tornadoes and
  locally heavy rain risk.

- Below normal afternoon temperatures will continue through
  Friday.

- A distinct pattern change is expected this weekend and early
  next week, with much hotter afternoons, rain chances ending,
  and strong south winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The upper-level synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged with a
low pressure dominates the upper-CONUS and a high pressure system
resides along the Texas/Mexico border. Nearer to the surface, a
continued wet pattern is present with a shortwave located around
northeastern Colorado. This system is aiding in the generation of
numerous severe storms in northeast Colorado and into southwest
Nebraska. The focus on the forecast continues to be on potential
convection tonight and tomorrow with tonight being in a SPC enhanced
risk and a widespread slight risk for tomorrow. Pleasant highs are
forecast over these two days, primarily around 80 degrees.

A flood watch is in effect tonight from 1 AM tonight until 1 AM on
Friday morning. This comes with two distinct rounds of precipitation
on Friday. The first comes later tonight with the ongoing convection
in Colorado/Nebraska. It is expected that the storms continue to
grow spatially and move southeastward towards the CWA. It is hard to
not immediately compare the situation to last night, where benign
showers developed ahead of the stronger storms and polluted the
favorable environment leaving SW Kansas without severe storms. The
focus on tonight is whether the storms reach the CWA at severe
strength. Ensembles and CAMs alike are excited about storms chances
in some shape and form. From a high level perspective, one of two
main outcomes are expected. The first is similar to last night where
the storms fizzle out somewhat before reaching the CWA and while
more storms develop, the lack of organization keeps most if not all
storms below severe criteria (closer to how the NAMNST tracks). The
alternatively likely solution is the ongoing storms eventually
develop a strong cold pool and the organization upticks significantly
creating a more MCS structure. If this happens, severe hail and
damaging wind gusts of 70+ mph is possible. Model soundings have a
favorable environment of: CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, deep-layer
shear of 40-50 KTs, and a strong southeasterly LLJ at 30-35 KTs. If
the organization occurs the environment will be support of strong
storms. Recent CAM trends suggest a maxima may strengthen around the
Scott City/Garden City area, but great uncertainty still exists.
Regardless of how severe the storms reach, flooding is a concern
everywhere. Especially with the ground being saturated last night
across SW Kansas, storms are expected to take advantage of
precipitable water values between 1.5-2". Areas that see heavy
precipitation or training storms is expected to see localized
flooding concerns, especially in flood prone areas. Ensure there is
a way to receive updates/warnings if these potential storms present
a concern.

After a short reprieve, Thursday afternoon is forecast to have
another round of convection. CAMs disagree wildly on the exact
placement and coverage, but the environment will similarly be
support of strong storms with hazards of all types albeit
potentially more favorable; CAPE of 3000 J/kg, surface to 1km SRH at
300 m2/s2, and deep-layer shear of 60 KTs from NAMNST modeled
soundings. This is especially true as the storms reach the
southeastern portion of the CWA near the Oklahoma border. Unlike the
last few nights, these storms are forecast to be more isolated with
a more supercellular mode (with CAMs giving very high supercell
composite values). The SPC has a hatched 5% tornado risk for this
area reflecting the very favorable environment the CAMs are
presenting. A lot of this risk may be contingent on tonights
system and how quickly the environment is able to recover
especially if the low and dense cloud cover sticks around well
into the daytime Thursday. Friday also has hints of more
convection in far SW Kansas, but more temporal uncertainty will
need to be eliminated before providing clear details.

Saturday onward the pattern shifts significantly. Dry weather will
persist with highs reaching upwards towards 100 degrees. This will
crest on Sunday where ensembles have nearly the entire area at a
>50% chance for triple digit highs and means in the southwestern
counties towards 105 degrees. There will also be stronger winds
across SW Kansas through this period with sustained winds of 20-30
KTs. Far SW Kansas will have a few days of low relative humidities,
but the heavy precipitation will quell most of the fire weather
risk. Otherwise, traditional fire weather precautions are
advised.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 729 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Early morning thunderstorm activity will affect portions of
southwest Kansas, but will continue to move east with
redevelopment likely later in the afternoon. In the meantime,
low stratus will continue in a saturated environment on east to
southeast winds. Stratus cloud should scatter out in the early
afternoon hours but redevelopment of stratus is likely later
tonight as the overall pattern will not change much.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Umscheid

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KSZ044-045-063-064-251200-
Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Lane KS-Ness KS-
611 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...WESTERN
NESS...NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN AND LANE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 AM CDT...

At 610 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Shields to near Kalvesta. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Dighton, Shields, and Kalvesta around 615 AM CDT.
  Alamota around 620 AM CDT.
  Pendennis around 625 AM CDT.
  Beeler around 630 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Utica.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10012 3803 9987 3800 10044 3861 10068
      3870 10046
TIME...MOT...LOC 1110Z 251DEG 25KT 3858 10052 3806 10033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

UMSCHEID

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
850 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 AM     Rain             1 W Amy                 38.48N 100.61W
06/25/2026  M6.50 Inch       Lane               KS   Trained Spotter

            24 hour rainfall report.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
907 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KSZ065-066-079-251445-
Stafford KS-Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
907 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PAWNEE...NORTHWESTERN
STAFFORD AND CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM CDT...

At 907 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Garfield, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Garfield around 920 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 9949 3812 9947 3820 9946 3824 9890
      3786 9900 3789 9935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1407Z 275DEG 16KT 3804 9938

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
916 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KSZ078>080-251445-
Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
916 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN FORD...NORTHWESTERN KIOWA
AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM CDT...

At 916 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Kinsley to near Windhorst to near Wright.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Kinsley and Windhorst around 920 AM CDT.
  Ford around 930 AM CDT.
  Centerview around 935 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 9944 3756 9972 3776 9993 3786 9967
      3796 9948 3789 9935 3786 9902 3784 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 1416Z 310DEG 22KT 3792 9940 3781 9961 3775 9982

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO