Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
649 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong south winds Saturday afternoon with hotter
  temperatures.

- Thunderstorms expected along and north of K-96 Saturday night,
  where some may be severe with hail and damaging winds.

- Most of Sunday afternoon will be hot and dry, with more
  scattered thunderstorms Sunday evening with severe potential.

- Cooler afternoons in the 80s Monday and Tuesday.

- At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
  every day this coming week, keeping temperatures several
  degrees below normal, and offering progress toward drought
  relief.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 432 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Mesoscale Discussion...

A double dry line structure was evident this afternoon, with the
active one on the western high plains generating high based
convection with diurnal heating. During the evening the diurnal
backing of the low level winds will advect higher dewpoints
westward in advance of developing storms. Mesoscale models
continue to depict isolated supercellular convection across far
southwest Kansas given 40-50 kt 0-6 km bulk shear. Very large
hail is the primary concern. That said, 0-1 km shear values are
progged to increase to 250 m2/s2 by 02z given the low level jet
formation, so an isolated tornado can't be completely ruled
out. But the later we get into the evening the less likely this
will occur. Farther north an organized cluster of storms along
I-70 is likely given the stronger forcing. The main concern with
the northern storms is damaging winds of 60-70+ mph. The 21z
WOFS run gives a strong signal for damaging winds along I-70.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Midday satellite imagery and surface observations depicted
stratus dissolving across eastern zones. Where sunshine
prevailed across western zones, instability was building
strongly late this morning, with CAPE already in excess of
2000 J/kg. Shortwave over Utah late this morning will advance
quickly to near the CO/KS border around 7 pm. Strong lee
cyclogenesis is expected in eastern Colorado this afternoon in
response, with 12z NAM forecasting a 990 mb cyclone near Limon
at 7 pm. CAMs continue the theme that convective development
will be favored in the northeast quadrant of this cyclone, near
the CO/KS/NE tristate area, 4-7 pm. Most, if not all, of this
activity is expected to remain out of the DDC CWA through 7 pm.
After 7 pm, 12z RRFS maintains continuity with other models
suggesting a bimodal thunderstorm distribution, with a severe
MCS across NW KS around 8 pm, and other much more isolated
storms somewhere near the Elkhart/far southwest Kansas vicinity.
Instability and wind shear will support strong updrafts, and
large hail/damaging winds in both cases. Damaging wind potential
will clearly be highest this evening, especially north of K-96
and east of US 283, as the MCS impacts the northeast zones. Wind
gusts of 70-80 mph are possible with this MCS through midnight,
by which time the MCS is expected to exit into central Kansas.
Highest confidence is with SPC 30%/hatched damaging wind
probability tonight, north of US 50.

South winds will increase dramatically this afternoon, gusting
near 40 mph, in response to the strong lee cyclogenesis in
eastern Colorado. This will maintain strong instability across
all of SW KS, but models continue to suggest coverage will be
much less south of about K-96 through tonight. Highest,
definite/categorical pops remain in the northeast zones for the
potentially damaging MCS this evening. A low level jet will keep
south to southeast winds strong and gusty through tonight, and
with high moisture content (dewpoints in the 60s), temperatures
will struggle to fall below 70 degrees at many locations sunrise
Sunday.

Despite an introduction of light northerly wind components,
models suggest more hot temperatures in the 90s Father's Day
afternoon. Most locations will be dry for most of Sunday and
Sunday evening, but at least isolated storms are expected to
develop at peak heating through 7 pm. Indications again favor
coverage across the northeast zones Sunday evening, where some
storms may produce severe hail/wind.

All model guidance shows cooling Monday, in response to
northeast to easterly upslope in a post cold front environment.
Afternoon temperatures will be held down, well down into the
80s, several degrees below the normal high of 90. Daylight
Monday is forecast to be dry. However, models display a classic
summer MCS pattern Monday night, as a shortwave rounds the
northern periphery of a strong 597 dm midlevel high over SW TX.
Thunderstorms that initiate on the Colorado Rockies Monday
afternoon will organize into bowing segments as they track
southeast along/north of the stalled frontal zone. NBM pops will
continue to increase for Monday night, and expect SPC severe
wind probability to increase.

The synoptic pattern is forecast to change little if any Tuesday
and Wednesday, with the WNWly midlevel flow maintained over
SW KS. Widespread chance to likely category NBM pops, highest
at night, were accepted and reflect the expected wet MCS
pattern. Each MCS will hold damaging hail/wind potential, and
flash flooding/hydrology products may become more necessary with
time next week, after repeated MCSs. Models depict a very
favorable pattern to significantly reduce drought across SW KS
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A large complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will roll
southeast across western Kansas early this TAF period. The
greatest chance for impact will be at the HYS terminal, although
we will carry at PROB30 for thunderstorms for a few hours at
DDC, GCK, and LBL as well. The thunderstorm impacts will wane
later tonight, and winds will eventually become northeasterly
behind the system as it pulls away. A period of MVFR flight
category due to stratus in the 2000 to 3000 foot range can be
expected Sunday morning on the northerly winds. Any MVFR (or
brief IFR) flight category is expected to become VFR by late
morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid