Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
837 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread and potentially severe storms across SW Kansas
  tonight

- More storms possible tomorrow night near the Oklahoma border
  with severe storm potential around Barber county

- A very pleasant and mild Sunday before a warm-up to triple
  digit highs Wednesday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Mesoscale Update...

Supercell mode over far southwest Kansas will transition to a
linear structure over the next hour. Until then, very large
hail will be a concern given the strong instability and high
bulk shear values. After 3 UTC (10 pm CDT) expect more of a
wind threat, with hail size coming down. This storm cluster
will progress eastward through midnight, with damaging winds
continuing to be a concern for the counties bordering Oklahoma.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft is dominated by a deep trough in the far
northern portion of the CONUS with more zonal flow overhead of the
forecast area. This pattern stretches down to the surface with a
weak surface high imposing over the CWA. This has helped keep winds
light after a breezier yesterday. Highs today are forecast in the
upper 80s/lower 90s with the focus being on the storm potential
arriving tonight.

CAMs have been all over the place regarding the convection tonight
in intensity, organization, and coverage. Modeled soundings from
the NAM have CAPE values of around 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear at
around 35 KTs. Most of the CAMs have storms initiating in eastern
Colorado in the early evening and organizing into a MCS representing
a more linear structure as it moves into Kansas around 7-8 PM. From
there, tremendous divergence is present between runs. Some have it
diving south quickly like the RRFS, some have aggressive expansions
and encompassing most of the area like the HRRR, and the NAMNST
keeps the storms unorganized and collapsing shortly after entering
Kansas. As a result, predicting a precise pathing is quite
difficult, with an aggregate being the current forecast. This being
at least loosely organized convection quickly becoming linear and
stretching east into the forecast until around Highways 83 and 283
by around 10 PM. By that point, it will begin to weak and dive
southeastward towards the Oklahoma border. Initially if strong
individual cells can form and mature early in the event, all
hazards may be possible in far SW Kansas albeit of very marginal
intensity. However, it is expected that the primarily threat
will quickly become strong winds of up to 70 mph. It is very
contingent on how strong the storms get and how well they can
organize, but there seems to be just enough ingredients in the
forecasted environment to support an organized system of that
strength.

Saturday's convection forecast seems almost as messy after highs
forecasted in the 90s and approaching 100 near the Oklahoma border.
Models have a boundary stalling from roughly the Texas panhandle to
south central Kansas. Exact placement of the boundary will determine
how much precipitation SW Kansas sees. Current CAM runs have some
storms detaching and moving north of the boundary and impacting the
area, but that would also be in the significantly less favorable
environment where they may be sub-severe and short-lived. With modest
CAPE and shear values similar to Friday, the best chance for severe
storms are ones that are able to stay in the move favorable air near
Barber county. This may happen again around 7-8 PM although CAMs
vary from around 5-9 PM for initiation. Again winds from the
strongest storms are the primary threat with potentially severe
winds.

Behind a cold front, Sunday will be particularly pleasant with highs
only in the 70s. Ensembles hold around a 20-30% chance for benign
precipitation in far SW Kansas on Sunday. The first half of the week
will sharply warm back up with highs Wednesday forecast to be a
return of triple digits before easing back down into the 90s towards
the end of the week. Ensembles seem to hold onto a weak
precipitation signal on Tuesday, but with the ample uncertainty it
is merely something to be aware of. Wednesday with the hot
temperatures has forecast relative humidities being very dry with
single digit percents west of highway 83. Winds currently are
forecast to remain below 20 mph and is expected to quell most of the
fire weather risk although basic precautions may still be
necessary.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Thunderstorms developing across extreme southeast Colorado will
track east through southwest Kansas this evening, potentially
affecting the vicinity of KGCK, KLBL, and KDDC generally after
01-03Z. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions to prevail
through early Saturday. Southerly winds around 10 to 20kt with
gusts up to 25kt are expected to persist through early Saturday
ahead of an approaching cold front from the west.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...JJohnson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
751 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

KSZ084-130115-
Morton KS-
751 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MORTON COUNTY THROUGH
815 PM CDT...

At 750 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Elkhart, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Morton
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 10204 3721 10204 3738 10179 3716 10161
      3700 10201 3704 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 237DEG 22KT 3713 10199

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JJOHNSON

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
816 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     Hail             Elkhart                 37.00N 101.90W
06/12/2026  M1.00 Inch       Morton             KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
822 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     Hail             10 WSW Richfield        37.23N 101.95W
06/12/2026  M1.00 Inch       Morton             KS   Public

&&