Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
641 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the
evening with the highest threat being between the lines of Rolla to
Garden City to Wakeeney and Beaver to Greensburg to Great Bend.

- Wind and hail will be the main concern initially, becoming more of
a wind threat as the storms form into a line. An isolated tornado
can not be ruled out

- A sight chance of severe storms will be possible across south
central and central Kansas tomorrow afternoon. Wind and hail will be
the main concern with these storms

- Temperatures around 100 degrees are expected Today and
along the KS/OK border tomorrow afternoon

- A wet and cooler pattern expected this weekend into the first
  part of next week

&&

**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

We are continuing to monitor both satellite and radar trends.
The severe wind reports have generally been around 60 mph.
Mesoscale analysis shows plenty of DCAPE and forecast soundings
forecast a well mixed thermo profile. Therefore, the atmosphere
still could support severe convective outflows for this
evening. It should be noted that there will be no 00Z RAOB for
KDDC. Unfortunately, our launch weather balloon got caught in an
updraft and has unreliable in situ observations. With
thunderstorms around, there are unfavorable launching conditions
for a second release. The main threat for the evening with be
winds around 60 mph or so. There is better instability farther
east, so wind magnitudes could be higher as the storms head
towards central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The main concern with the forecast will once again be the severe
threat and the temperatures soaring to around 100 degrees today and
tomorrow.

The synoptic pattern can be described as an upper level trough over
the Intermountain west today, shifting eastward into the Plains
tomorrow into Thursday. Upper level shortwaves will move around the
periphery of this trough and towards the Central Plains this
afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon. Upper level zonal west to
east flow is then expected Thursday night through this weekend with
an upper level trough digging into the Plains late weekend into the
early part of next week.

For the actual forecast, high based thunderstorms are expected to
form across southeastern Colorado this afternoon then congeal into a
line of storms as they trek eastward across the CWA. Large hail and
damaging winds are expected initially, then turn into more of a wind
threat as they form into a line and head east. An isolated tornado
can not be ruled out, especially if any storms form ahead of this
line. SPC has maintained an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms
between the lines of Rolla to Garden City to Wakeeney and Beaver to
Greensburg to Great Bend. This is where they believe some of the
storms could produce wind gusts at or above 75 mph. CAM models then
show these storms weakening late evening as they approach central
Kansas. Before these storms develop, expect strong southerly winds
this afternoon with highs reaching to around 100 degrees across the
entire CWA. Heat indices may approach 105 degrees across our eastern
zones this afternoon and a heat advisory was issued to account for
this.

After the storms move through or dissipate, expect cloudiness to
decrease overnight with mostly clear skies expected throughout the
day tomorrow. Winds will continue to be breezy and out of a
southerly direction overnight, shifting to the north behind a cold
front across the western half of the CWA after sunrise tomorrow.
This cold front will then move through the remainder of the CWA
tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow are progged to reach into the 90s
with the exception of along the KS/OK border where highs around 100
degrees will be found.

A few thunderstorms may form along the cold front late afternoon into
evening hours. The atmosphere ahead of the cold front will be very
unstable and any storms that do form will have the capability of
becoming severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
concern with these storms. Storms should move out of the area
tomorrow evening with mostly clear skies and dry conditions expected
overnight through Thursday. Winds will become light and variable
behind the front tomorrow afternoon then shift to a southerly
direction tomorrow night. Mid range models show another cold front
moving through the area Thursday shifting winds back to the north.
As for temperatures, lows tomorrow night will range from around 60
degrees across west central Kansas to upper 70s across south central
Kansas. Highs Thursday look to range from the mid 80s across west
central Kansas to mid 90s across south central Kansas.

For the remainder of the forecast expect dry conditions Friday with
increased precipitation chances Friday night through the early part
of next week. Extended models show the possibility of an MCS or two
moving through the Plains sometime this weekend into the first part
of next week.  Future model runs will need to be watched to get a
better sense of timing and intensity. Temperatures during this time
frame will start out with highs around 90 Friday, mid to upper 90s
Saturday, then mid 70s to mid 80s Sunday into the first part of next
week. Lows look to fluctuate between the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Individual strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to track
northeast while the line itself moves slowly east across southwest
Kansas into central Kansas through late evening, potentially affecting
the vicinity of all TAF sites. Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions
are expected to prevail through early Wednesday. South- southwest
winds around 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt are forecast to persist
through early Wednesday ahead of a lee side trough anchored near
and along the Colorado line.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.

&&

UPDATE...Sugden
DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
633 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Schoenchen         38.69N 99.36W
06/09/2026  M61 MPH          Rush               KS   Mesonet

            Davis Weatherlink station.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Ellis             38.93N 99.59W
06/09/2026  M59 MPH          Ellis              KS   Mesonet

            Davis Weatherlink station.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
643 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SW Burdett            38.16N 99.56W
06/09/2026  M65 MPH          Pawnee             KS   Public

            Davis Weatherlink station.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 E Yocemento           38.91N 99.41W
06/09/2026  M64 MPH          Ellis              KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UP856 0.8 E Yocemento (UPR).

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
647 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Ellis                   38.94N 99.56W
06/09/2026  E65 MPH          Ellis              KS   Public

            Social media report with video of estimated
            60-70 mph winds gusts in Ellis.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
655 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SW Burdett            38.16N 99.56W
06/09/2026  M65 MPH          Pawnee             KS   Mesonet

&&

AS