Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Dodge City, KS

195 
WWUS83 KDDC 220340
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS 
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...

KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085-230200-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0025.260422T1800Z-260423T0200Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Stanton-Grant-Morton-Stevens-
1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 /940 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO
9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 062 Kearny, Fire Weather Zone 074 Stanton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 075 Grant, Fire Weather Zone 084 Morton and Fire Weather 
  Zone 085 Stevens.

* TIMING...From 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ 
  Wednesday.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* LIGHTNING...Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along 
  and west of Route 83.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

907 
WWUS83 KDDC 221901
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
201 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026


KSZ061-074-075-084-085-230830-
/O.NEW.KDDC.FW.W.0026.260423T1700Z-260424T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-260423T0200Z/
Hamilton-Stanton-Grant-Morton-Stevens-
201 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /101 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM 
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 074 Stanton, Fire Weather Zone 075 Grant, Fire Weather 
  Zone 084 Morton and Fire Weather Zone 085 Stevens.

* TIMING...For the first Red Flag Warning, until 9 PM CDT /8 PM 
  MDT/ this evening. For the second Red Flag Warning, from noon 
  CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday.

* WINDS...For the first warning, Southwest 15 to 25 mph with 
  gusts up to 35 mph. For the second warning, north 10 to 20 mph 
  with gusts up to 30 mph.


* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent both days.

* LIGHTNING...Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along
  and west of Route 83 this Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

KSZ076-086>089-230830-
/O.NEW.KDDC.FW.W.0026.260423T1700Z-260424T0200Z/
Haskell-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-
201 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 076 Haskell, Fire Weather 
  Zone 086 Seward, Fire Weather Zone 087 Meade, Fire Weather 
  Zone 088 Clark and Fire Weather Zone 089 Comanche.

* TIMING...From noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday.

* WINDS...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 13 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

KSZ062-230200-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-260423T0200Z/
Kearny-
201 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 062 Kearny.

* TIMING...Until 9 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* LIGHTNING...Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along 
  and west of Route 83.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1221 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near Critical to Critical Fire Weather Risk Wednesday and
  Thursday. A Red flag warning is in effect for Wednesday west
  of highway 83. Areas of near critical fire weather conditions
  will be possible Thusday, especially across extreme southwest
  and along the Oklahoma border.

- Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Wednesday across
  southwest Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
  after 3 pm. A few may be severe with the main hazards being
  quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Thursday will be
  Possible across south central Kansas. A slight chance for
  thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday and Thursday
  night. A few of these storms will be capable of producing
  larger hail and strong gusty winds.

- Cooler temperature along with improving chances for
  precipitation this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

It is another warm day across southwest Kansas with
temperatures at noon already in the 70s. 850mb temperatures are
forecast to climb into the 18 to near 24C range by late day as
an upper ridge over the Rockies slowly moves east. A deepening
trough of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies will allow
for ongoing southerly winds across southwest Kansas to draw
higher dewpoints back into the area today. What increase in low
level moisture that has already occurred has resulted in higher
afternoon humidity and lower fire risks for the area.
Overnight, moisture will continue to advect northward into
southwest Kansas as a dryline develops over eastern Colorado.
This dryline will then move east into extreme southwest Kansas
on Wednesday, which will produce dangerous fire weather
conditions across extreme southwest Kansas and even a chance for
isolated severe thunderstorms further east.

Fire Weather Concerns Wednesday. A developing dryline in
eastern Colorado moves into extreme southwest Kansas during the
afternoon bringing a return of drier air. As humidity values
fall back into the teens west of this dryline the winds will
also begin to increase late in the day. Guidance winds and BUFR
sounding wind gusts via momentum transfer both support the
potential for several hours late Wednesday with gusts in the 25
to 30 mph range. Given this agreement and the ongoing forecast
of 10-15% humidity values west of this dryline we will upgrade
the fire weather to a Red Flag Warning.

In addition to the fire weather risk on Wednesday we will be
monitoring the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms along
the dryline Wednesday afternoon. After 3 PM there will be a
chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline
that will be located near highway 83 given improving low level
forcing as afternoon instability increases and difluent flow
aloft increases due to the approaching nose of an upper level
jet. Despite this improving lift and instability late in the
day..it still appears that limited moisture and warm mid level
temperatures will try to inhibit convective initiation. As a
result the chance for storms late Wednesday are less than 25%.
If however storms are able to develop late in the day they have
the potential to quickly strengthen and become severe, with the
primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. Currently,
a Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place over and just
east of the dryline across southwest Kansas.

On Thursday another round of dangerous fire weather is
expected, along with a slight risk for severe weather. The
severe weather risk will be focused along the dryline/cold front
as it moves across south central Kansas. Short term models
continue to suggest this boundary will be east of Highway 183 by
3pm which will limit this severe weather risk to Stafford,
Pratt, and Barber Counties late day/early Thursday evening. In
this region the environment will be more favorable for severe
storms compared to Wednesday along and ahead of the dryline/cold
front as a secondary upper level trough exits the Rockies. Any
storm that does develop late Thursday will be capable of 2 inch
hail or larger and strong winds for Stafford, Pratt and Barber
Counties late Thursday. Given the progressive eastward movement
of the dryline/cold front this risk for this severe weather will
be limited to a 2-4 hour window.

West of this dryline on Thursday the primary concern will be
the ongoing fire weather risk. Currently the area of greatest
concern appears to be south of the Arkansas River based given
that a cold front will be moving across southwest Kansas during
the afternoon. In this area, humidity values will once again
fall to 10% or less as gusty west winds develop. Wind speeds
Thursday afternoon are not expected to be as strong as the past
few days, but a few locations may still approach Red Flag
Warning criteria, especially near the Oklahoma border where
ensemble clusters show approximately a 50% chance for wind gusts
to exceed 25 mph. NBM guidance was lower (25 to 40%). At this
time, confidence is not high enough to issue a Fire Weather
Watch, but given that another day of near critical fire weather
is possible across southwest Kansas, extreme caution should be
taken.

Looking ahead to the weekend. Ensemble clusters were in good
agreement with an upper low developing late this week across
south central Canada and then deepening over the weekend. This
will allow cooler air to continue spreading south out of Canada
and into Plains this weekend which will keep a cold front
stationary near the Oklahoma border. As a result temperatures
over the weekend will on average be 15-20 degrees cooler than
earlier in the week. These temperatures may cool further late
this weekend into early next week given increasing
moisture/cloud cover as an upper trough approaches from the
west/southwest. Ahead of this approaching trough the improving
moisture and lift will not only keep temperatures on the cool
side across areas of southwest Kansas that will be north of our
stationary front but also bring improving chances for light
precipitation. Currently there is a 30-60% chance for
precipitation Sunday through early Monday with the highest
chances being north of Dodge City, especially along I-70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Southerly winds will draw more humid air back into southwest
Kansas overnight. Both BUFR soundings and model guidance are in
good agreement that an area of low MVFR ceilings will develop
after 06Z Wednesday. There is even a 50-70% chance for ceilings
to fall below 1000 ft AGL at Liberal, Dodge City, and even
Garden City between 09Z and 15Z Wednesday. These low clouds will
slowly erode around 18Z Wednesday. Southwest winds at 10 to 15
mph will shift to south southeast between 03Z and 06Z Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Critical Fire Risk west of highway 83 Wednesday.

A developing dryline will move east into extreme southwest
Kansas by Wednesday afternoon as a 60-70 knot mid level jet
moves from the base of a weakening upper level low/trough as it
tracks northeast across the western United States. At this time,
it appears the dryline will move only into extreme southwest
Kansas by late day, given the location of the deepening surface
low over portions of western Nebraska. Based on the latest
short term models the general consensus places the dry line
west of Highway 83, which would favor the lowest afternoon
humidity values to be located west of a Hugoton to Ulysses line
as gusty south winds develop. As a result, we will be upgrading
the Fire Watch to a Red Flag Warning for these areas. For the
counties still in the Fire Watch (Hamilton and Kearny), the
humidity values for a Red Flag Warning appear more marginal, but
there does appear to be a 3 to 4hour window of opportunity for
red flag conditions as the gusty south southwest winds develop
mid to late afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Wednesday for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert