Alert archive / Kansas / Red Flag Warnings in 2026

Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Dodge City, KS

April 19, 202618 counties in Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this red flag warning at Apr 19, 2026, 1:47 PM CDT for 18 counties in Kansas. It took effect at Apr 20, 2026, 12:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 8 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 19, 2026, 1:47 PM CDT (18:47 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 20, 2026, 12:00 PM CDT
Expired
Apr 20, 2026, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Dodge City, KS

Counties Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

192 
WWUS83 KDDC 191847
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
147 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026


KSZ061>063-074-075-084-200300-
/O.NEW.KDDC.FW.W.0024.260420T1700Z-260421T0100Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260420T0100Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-Morton-
147 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 /1247 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM 
CDT /7 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Monday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 062 Kearny, Fire Weather Zone 063 Finney, Fire Weather 
  Zone 074 Stanton, Fire Weather Zone 075 Grant and Fire Weather 
  Zone 084 Morton.

* TIMING...For the first Red Flag Warning, until 8 PM CDT /7 PM 
  MDT/ this evening. For the second Red Flag Warning, from noon 
  CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Monday.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph today and
  south wind at 15 to 25 mph with gust up to 35 mph Monday.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 7 percent today and between 10 and
  15 percent on Monday.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

KSZ043>046-064-065-076>080-085>089-200100-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260420T0100Z/
Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hodgeman-Pawnee-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-
Kiowa-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-
147 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 043 Scott, Fire Weather Zone 
  044 Lane, Fire Weather Zone 045 Ness, Fire Weather Zone 046 
  Rush, Fire Weather Zone 064 Hodgeman, Fire Weather Zone 065 
  Pawnee, Fire Weather Zone 076 Haskell, Fire Weather Zone 077 
  Gray, Fire Weather Zone 078 Ford, Fire Weather Zone 079 
  Edwards, Fire Weather Zone 080 Kiowa, Fire Weather Zone 085 
  Stevens, Fire Weather Zone 086 Seward, Fire Weather Zone 087 
  Meade, Fire Weather Zone 088 Clark and Fire Weather Zone 089 
  Comanche.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc
5 follow-up statements
759 
WWUS83 KDDC 200459
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1159 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026


KSZ061>063-074-075-084-210100-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0024.260420T1700Z-260421T0100Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-Morton-
1159 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 /1059 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 062 Kearny, Fire Weather Zone 063 Finney, Fire Weather 
  Zone 074 Stanton, Fire Weather Zone 075 Grant and Fire Weather 
  Zone 084 Morton.

* TIMING...From noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ 
  Monday.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 12 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc
686 
WWUS83 KDDC 201355
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
855 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026



KSZ030-031-043>045-064-076-077-085-210100-
/O.EXA.KDDC.FW.W.0024.260420T1700Z-260421T0100Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Hodgeman-Haskell-Gray-Stevens-
855 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 030 Trego, Fire Weather Zone 
  031 Ellis, Fire Weather Zone 043 Scott, Fire Weather Zone 044 
  Lane, Fire Weather Zone 045 Ness, Fire Weather Zone 064 
  Hodgeman, Fire Weather Zone 076 Haskell, Fire Weather Zone 077 
  Gray and Fire Weather Zone 085 Stevens.

* TIMING...From noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

KSZ061>063-074-075-084-210100-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0024.260420T1700Z-260421T0100Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-Morton-
855 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 /755 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 062 Kearny, Fire Weather Zone 063 Finney, Fire Weather 
  Zone 074 Stanton, Fire Weather Zone 075 Grant and Fire Weather 
  Zone 084 Morton.

* TIMING...From noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM 
  MDT/ this evening.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc
652 
WWUS83 KDDC 201723
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026



KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085-210200-
/O.NEW.KDDC.FW.A.0016.260422T1800Z-260423T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-260421T0100Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Stanton-Grant-Morton-Stevens-
1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 /1123 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Fire
Weather Watch for wind and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 062 Kearny, Fire Weather Zone 074 Stanton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 075 Grant, Fire Weather Zone 084 Morton and Fire Weather 
  Zone 085 Stevens.

* TIMING...For the Red Flag Warning, until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ 
  this evening. For the Fire Weather Watch, from Wednesday 
  afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

KSZ030-031-043>045-063-064-076-077-210100-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-260421T0100Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Finney-Hodgeman-Haskell-Gray-
1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 030 Trego, Fire Weather Zone 
  031 Ellis, Fire Weather Zone 043 Scott, Fire Weather Zone 044 
  Lane, Fire Weather Zone 045 Ness, Fire Weather Zone 063 
  Finney, Fire Weather Zone 064 Hodgeman, Fire Weather Zone 076 
  Haskell and Fire Weather Zone 077 Gray.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc
415 
WWUS83 KDDC 201907
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
207 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026


KSZ046-065-078-210100-
/O.EXA.KDDC.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-260421T0100Z/
Rush-Pawnee-Ford-
207 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 046 Rush, Fire Weather Zone 
  065 Pawnee and Fire Weather Zone 078 Ford.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085-210315-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-260421T0100Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.A.0016.260422T1800Z-260423T0200Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Stanton-Grant-Morton-Stevens-
207 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 /107 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 062 Kearny, Fire Weather Zone 074 Stanton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 075 Grant, Fire Weather Zone 084 Morton and Fire Weather 
  Zone 085 Stevens.

* TIMING...For the Red Flag Warning, until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ 
  this evening. For the Fire Weather Watch, from Wednesday 
  afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

KSZ030-031-043>045-063-064-076-077-210100-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-260421T0100Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Finney-Hodgeman-Haskell-Gray-
207 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 030 Trego, Fire Weather Zone 
  031 Ellis, Fire Weather Zone 043 Scott, Fire Weather Zone 044 
  Lane, Fire Weather Zone 045 Ness, Fire Weather Zone 063 
  Finney, Fire Weather Zone 064 Hodgeman, Fire Weather Zone 076 
  Haskell and Fire Weather Zone 077 Gray.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 12 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc
823 
WWUS83 KDDC 210102
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
802 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085-210915-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-260421T0100Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.A.0016.260422T1800Z-260423T0200Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Stanton-Grant-Morton-Stevens-
802 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 /702 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026/

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... 
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY..

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 062 Kearny, Fire Weather Zone 074 Stanton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 075 Grant, Fire Weather Zone 084 Morton and Fire Weather 
  Zone 085 Stevens.

* TIMING...From Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

KSZ030-031-043>046-063>065-076>078-210215-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-260421T0100Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Finney-Hodgeman-Pawnee-Haskell-
Gray-Ford-
802 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...

Humidity values are increasing therefore the red flag warning is
allowed to expire.

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Apr 19, 12:07 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Near critical or critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of southwest Kansas Monday afternoon. Area of greatest concern will be near and east of a Garden City to Hugoton line.
  • Persistent Unseasonably Warm Temperatures and Gusty Winds. Unseasonably warm air will keep temperatures 15 to around 20 degrees above normal for this time of year through at least Thursday.
  • Dangerous Fire Weather Risk Midweek Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
  • Next chance for Thunderstorms will be Wednesday and Thursday. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible should storms develop, especially across south central Kansas on Thursday.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 19, 12:07 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions expected
  across portions of southwest Kansas Monday afternoon. Area of
  greatest concern will be near and east of a Garden City to
  Hugoton line.

- Persistent Unseasonably Warm Temperatures and Gusty Winds.
  Unseasonably warm air will keep temperatures 15 to around 20
  degrees above normal for this time of year through at least
  Thursday.

- Dangerous Fire Weather Risk Midweek Near critical to critical
  fire weather conditions are expected on Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Next chance for Thunderstorms will be Wednesday and Thursday.
  A few severe thunderstorms will be possible should storms
  develop, especially across south central Kansas on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Earlier this morning a west to northwesterly flow was present
across the Central United States. An upper level ridge was
slowly crossing the western United States and an upper level
trough was crossing the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. At the
surface a cold front extended from northeast Colorado into
Iowa, and a trough of low pressure was located across eastern
Colorado. Temperatures at the 850mb level were around 10C warmer
than 24 hours earlier.

Models today remain in good agreement and run to run agreement
showing these 850mb temperatures warming into the teens today
and lingering through at least Thursday as improving downslope
flow develops ahead of the western United States upper ridge as
it moves east across the Rockies and out into the Plains. This
ongoing unseasonably warm air across western Kansas will
continue to keep temperatures 10 to 20F above seasonal normal
over the next several days.

In addition to these unseasonably warm temperatures, gusty
south winds will continue on Monday. These winds are in response
to the deepening lee trough over southeastern Colorado, and
mixing potential. The latest guidance shows a 50-70% chance for
wind gusts to exceed 30 mph at times Monday afternoon. This
raises concerns for dangerous fire weather conditions if
humidity values can fall back to 15% or less, as they have done
over the last few days. On Monday however the developing
southerly winds will draw more humid air back into southwest
Kansas so humidity values are not expected to be as low as what
was seen over the weekend. Still an overlap of humidity values
near 15% and gusty south winds is forecast to occur from the
Elkhart area to Garden City to near Hays. In this area near
critical or critical fire weather conditions will be possible at
times Monday afternoon (40-60%). Currently based on the latest
short term models it appears that within this are the most
favorable location for Red Flag Warning conditions Monday
afternoon will be from Garden City south/southwest to the
Cimarron Grasslands. These will be marginal conditions but at
this time given the trend in lower low level moisture spreading
into far western Kansas from some of the short term models am
currently learning towards issuing a Red Flag Warning for this
area.

Looking ahead...Fire weather conditions are expected to
continue through most of the upcoming work week with the next
best opportunity for near critical to critical fire weather
concerns will be on Wednesday and Thursday. This is due to a
developing dryline as it moves into southwest Kansas mid week.
As the dryline crosses into southwest Kansas...gusty west to
southwest winds are expected west of the boundary and this will
bring lower dewpoints into the area. Of these two days, Thursday
currently appears to be the day of greatest fire weather
concern. This will be due to a strengthening mid level southwest
flow developing ahead of our next approaching upper level
trough and the dryline is expected location further east.

Since this period is still several days away, the exact
location of the dryline remains uncertain. However, ensemble
forecasts currently favor the boundary being between Highway 83
and Highway 283 on Wednesday and east of Highway 183 on
Thursday. This setup suggests that the greatest area of fire
weather conditions will be west of Garden City and Liberal on
Wednesday, but will cover most, if not all, of southwest Kansas
on Thursday.

The location of this boundary Wednesday and Thursday will not
only determine fire weather concerns but also the focus for
potential thunderstorms, some possibly severe, each evening as
the upper level trough approaches from the west. On Wednesday,
models indicate improving low level forcing developing along
this boundary as dewpoints of +50 degrees spread northward
ahead of it. Warm 700mb temperatures will however exist near or
over the dryline. This is something to monitor given that this
may inhibit thunderstorm development. If a storm or two can
develop(<20%), the environment would favor that they may be
severe with large hail being the main hazard. On Thursday the
environment will be more favorable for thunderstorm development
as a cold front moves across southwest Kansas and begins to
overtake the dryline with the upper level trough exiting the
Rockies and moving out into the Plains. Ensembles also forecast
better shear and instability across south central Kansas late
in the day (east of Highway 183), increasing the risk of severe
weather. The Storm Prediction Center already outlines a 15 to
29% chance for severe weather in this area, which still looks on
track.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Gusty southwest winds at 20 to 25 knots will decrease to 10 to
15 knots after sunset. The exception is the Hays area where a
surface cold front will drop south of the I-70 corridor this
evening resulting in lighter winds. The southerly winds will
also become easterly once this surface boundary passes. These
lighter winds overnight will then increase early Monday morning,
with southerly winds developing at 15 to 20 knots after 15Z.
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with high
clouds today giving way to clearing skies late day and early
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Monday.

Gusty southwest winds will develop over southwest Kansas on
Monday as surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies
and a surface boundary lifts north toward Nebraska. These
southerly winds will bring higher dew points back into southwest
Kansas during the day, but afternoon humidity values are still
expected to fall to around 15% west of a line from Hays to
Garden City to Hugoton. This combination will create near
critical to critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon.
The greatest concern is in an area from near Hays to near Garden
City to the Hugoton/Elkhart line. Within this area, the lowest
afternoon humidity is currently forecast to overlap with the
strongest afternoon wind gusts primarily from near Garden City
to the Cimarron Grasslands. As a result am leaning towards
issuing a red Flag Warning for portions of extreme southwest
Kansas between noon and 8 pm Monday.This event on Monday is a
more marginal event then what occurred earlier this weekend so
will monitor the latest CAMS and make a final call by 2pm CDT.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ063-064-
074>078-084>088.

&&

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Kansas, 2026Every red flag warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.