Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
518 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active, wet pattern will continue through Friday, with
  periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will
  produce severe wind gusts, large hail, and locally
  heavy/flooding rainfall.

- A severe thunderstorm watch is currently in effect this
  morning for the western counties until 6 AM.

- Below normal afternoon temperatures will continue through
  Thursday.

- A distinct pattern change is expected this weekend and early
  next week, with much hotter afternoons (approaching 100
  degrees), rain chances ending, and strong south winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The wet pattern continues for SW Kansas as synoptically a low
pressure dominates the upper-CONUS and a high pressure system
resides along the Texas/Mexico border. Nearer to the surface,
analysis places a low pressure system in northeast New Mexico and
into the panhandles. The focus on the forecast continues to be on
potential convection the next three days with at least some of the
SPC's slight risk extending into the CWA all three days. Pleasant
highs are forecast over these few days, primarily around 80 degrees.

The forecast difficulties of this morning were a result of
tremendous CAM disagreement. Unfortunately, even now a few hours out
from the expected potential convection there is little clarity. Some
CAMs like the WRF have convection along everywhere with a semblance
of CAPE. Other CAMs have two distinct areas of convection in
northeast and southeast Colorado as both move towards the CWA. The
HRRR was the best (albeit poor) at handling this mornings convection
and has storms covering most of the CWA by mid-morning. Along with
the coverage difficulty, the overall strength is difficult to
forecast. The current supercells in Colorado are capable of
producing giant hail, although this is not expected to make it to SW
Kansas at those sizes (2-3 inches). The severe threat is forecast to
be a balance of hail and wind threat with the SPC even leaving in a
2% tornado risk. The phase of the storms will continue to be
monitored if the current Colorado convection becomes more linear in
nature before entering Kansas as the latest CAM runs suggest. NAMNST
forecast soundings have CAPE around 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear
of 40-50 KTs. Additionally it has pockets of SRH reaching 250 from
surface to 1 km. All this to say the environment is favorable for
strong storms capable of all hazards. This includes flooding
potential, with PWat values of 1.5-2", localized areas may see
flooding especially with trainings storms.

Little respite is given before another round of potential storms on
Wednesday night/Thursday morning. More convection is forecast to
initiate in Colorado before organizing and moving into Kansas. CAMs
are much less excited about this set of severe prospects with it
primarily being a wind threat that is weakening. Some severe gusts
are possible, especially in the west/northwestern counties. More
details will need to wait until after tonights convection and
massive uncertainty.

Finally CAMs have more convection Thursday afternoon, initially
being more isolated and supercellular in nature. Early indications
are that the bulk of the storms, particularly the strongest of them,
will be south and east of the CWA. The southeastern counties,
especially around Barber county, should be vigilant in monitoring
the weather for changes.

After Thursday, SW Kansas is forecast to see a significant forecast
change with the transport of hot and dry air. Saturday is
immediately forecast to be hotter with highs in the 90s and into the
100s especially in far SW Kansas. Through the first half of next
week, these highs are forecast to continue with nearly all of SW
Kansas at or above a 60% chance to see triple digit highs during
this stretch via ensembles. Sunday evening has the best chance for
fire weather risk in this period with a south wind of 20-25 mph and
relative humidity minimums of 10-20%. The precipitation in the days
prior will hopefully quell much of that fire weather risk.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Showers and storms will continue into the first couple hours of the
TAF period before slowly clearing up by around 15Z. After that,
ceilings and visibilities will return to VFR conditions with winds
out of the southeast at 5-10 KTs. Another round of storms with lower
ceilings is expected near the end of the TAF period, but
probabilities are low enough via ensembles to not be included in the
TAF groups for the time being.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
336 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

KSZ043-240900-
Scott KS-
336 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SCOTT COUNTY THROUGH 400 AM
CDT...

At 336 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Modoc, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Modoc around 340 AM CDT.
  Scott City around 345 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3831 10070 3839 10113 3861 10113 3869 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0836Z 268DEG 29KT 3850 10110

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
358 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

KSZ043-044-063-240930-
Finney KS-Lane KS-Scott KS-
358 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FINNEY...
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHWESTERN LANE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM
CDT...

At 357 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grigston, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Grigston around 405 AM CDT.
  Amy around 410 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3836 10098 3854 10099 3860 10050 3810 10050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0857Z 272DEG 36KT 3843 10079

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
416 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

KSZ044-045-063-064-240945-
Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Lane KS-Ness KS-
416 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...
SOUTHWESTERN NESS...WESTERN HODGEMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTIES
THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

At 416 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Kalvesta, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Finney, southwestern Ness, western Hodgeman and southeastern Lane
Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 10012 3799 10022 3800 10023 3800 10024
      3811 10058 3830 10056 3834 10007
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 275DEG 30KT 3820 10048

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
418 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

KSZ077-078-087-088-240945-
Gray KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Ford KS-
418 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN FORD...NORTHEASTERN
MEADE...SOUTHEASTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 445
AM CDT...

At 418 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Fowler, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Fowler around 430 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 10042 3750 10043 3761 10008 3725 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0918Z 266DEG 24KT 3742 10034

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
441 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

KSZ063-064-078-241015-
Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
441 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FORD...EAST
CENTRAL FINNEY AND WESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM CDT...

At 441 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kalvesta, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jetmore around 500 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 9981 3797 10023 3800 10023 3800 10027
      3817 10028 3825 9978
TIME...MOT...LOC 0941Z 267DEG 29KT 3809 10018

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
504 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

KSZ078-080-088-089-241030-
Clark KS-Kiowa KS-Ford KS-Comanche KS-
504 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FORD...SOUTHWESTERN
KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH
530 AM CDT...

At 504 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Clark State Lake, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Ford,
southwestern Kiowa, northwestern Comanche and northeastern Clark
Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 9967 3746 9968 3763 9924 3714 9923
TIME...MOT...LOC 1004Z 269DEG 21KT 3738 9959

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJOHNSON