Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
629 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning thunderstorms will focus on far southwest Kansas
  around daybreak with marginal severe wind/hail reports
  possible.

- More robust severe storms likely later this afternoon and
  evening across eastern Colorado. Initial late afternoon
  concern for a supercell storm will be across far southwest
  Kansas in our area, particularly around Elkhart.

- The pattern of nightly thunderstorms will continue through
  Thursday, with afternoon temperatures remaining well below
  normal.

- A distinct pattern change is expected this weekend and early
  next week, with much hotter afternoons, rain chances ending,
  and strong south winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

As has been mentioned in previous forecast discussions, our mesoscale
convective system (MCS) pattern will continue through the end of the week.
Specific subsynoptic scale details will be extremely difficult to forecast
beyond 24 hours, so the focus of this discussion will be on just that -- the
next 24 hours.

During the late night hours, we have seen a small, disorganized cluster of
showers and widely scattered thunderstorms develop in a fairly weak 800-700mb
warm frontogenetic zone across mainly far west central Kansas. High-resolution
CAMs and ensemble systems, particularly the experimental MPAS version of the
Rapid Refresh Ensemble Forecast System (REFS), have caught on to this
development overnight quite well with timing and placement. The MPAS REFS moves
this cluster slowly southeast through the night across southwest Kansas, with
redevelopment/enhancement on the southwest edge of this cluster in the 10-13Z
time frame across far southwest Kansas along the OK line (using the LPMM
Composite Reflectivity field). This new cluster then moves off to the southeast
through the mid to late morning hours into northwest Oklahoma with some
marginal severe risk associated with this. By late morning/midday, an outflow
boundary will likely be left behind this early morning MCS, setting the stage
for robust surface-based severe storms near a mesolow somewhere in/around Baca
County, Colorado/Cimarron County, Oklahoma. Any storm that develops in this
area would probably come very close to Elkhart and likely become a supercell
given very good hodograph shape due to excellent veering wind profile just east
of the surface mesolow. Other surface-based severe storms would likely form
across eastern Colorado, particularly the Palmer Divide area. Most models and
especially HREF and REFS ensemble systems show another strong signal of a
rather well-organized MCS moving east-southeast across western Kansas late
tonight (Tuesday Night). Should this materialize, then Wednesday temperatures
will likely struggle to get out of the 70s with Wednesday evening's
thunderstorm episode likely focused out across eastern Colorado again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered thunderstorms tracking east-southeast across southwest
Kansas will affect the vicinity of KGCK, KDDC, and possibly KHYS
through mid/late morning before dissipating/moving off to the east.
Meanwhile, prevailing low level stratus through mid-morning is
expected to begin lifting/scattering out generally after 16-18Z,
allowing IFR cigs to improve to MVFR, and eventually VFR in vicinity
of KLBL and possibly as far north as KGCK and KDDC. MVFR cigs may
linger farther north toward the I-70 corridor. South-southeast winds
around 10 to 20kt through late morning are expected to turn more
east-southeasterly this afternoon as a surface low develops in
southeast Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

KSZ043-062>064-076-077-231030-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Kearny KS-Scott KS-Haskell KS-
500 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN KEARNY...FINNEY...
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT...WEST CENTRAL HODGEMAN...NORTHERN GRAY AND
NORTHERN HASKELL COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM CDT...

At 500 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles southeast of Friend to near Plymell to
8 miles north of Lakin. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Lakin, Deerfield, and Plymell around 505 AM CDT.
  Pierceville around 510 AM CDT.
  Charleston around 515 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10152 3826 10113 3828 10112 3827 10072
      3806 10014 3766 10045 3773 10109 3774 10109
      3774 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1000Z 311DEG 39KT 3817 10070 3789 10089 3805 10131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
512 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

KSZ087-088-231045-
Meade KS-Clark KS-
512 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN MEADE AND WESTERN CLARK
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM CDT...

At 512 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Meade, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Meade and
western Clark Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 10042 3744 10027 3737 9990 3700 9987
      3700 10032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1012Z 313DEG 27KT 3729 10023

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

KSZ062-063-075>077-231100-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Kearny KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
530 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN KEARNY...
SOUTHWESTERN FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...WEST CENTRAL GRAY AND
NORTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM CDT...

At 530 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Plymell, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Plymell around 540 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3798 10134 3815 10108 3785 10058 3752 10096
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 313DEG 27KT 3788 10099

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
701 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

KSZ087-231230-
Meade KS-
701 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTY
THROUGH 730 AM CDT...

At 701 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Meade State Park, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Meade State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 10063 3719 10042 3700 10041 3700 10063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1201Z 268DEG 15KT 3707 10058

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
736 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

KSZ076-077-086-087-231315-
Seward KS-Gray KS-Meade KS-Haskell KS-
736 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SEWARD...
NORTHWESTERN MEADE...SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 AM CDT...

At 736 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Sublette, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sublette around 740 AM CDT.
  Tice around 745 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 10096 3762 10087 3762 10062 3752 10042
      3726 10058 3734 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 1236Z 295DEG 23KT 3751 10084

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
737 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

KSZ087-231315-
Meade KS-
737 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTY
THROUGH 815 AM CDT...

At 737 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Forgan, or 11 miles south of Meade State Park,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Meade
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 10049 3713 10030 3701 10009 3700 10009
      3700 10056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1237Z 295DEG 23KT 3701 10046

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO