Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
151 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will be cooler with highs near 80 north and 90s south.

- There are chances for t-storms (20-40%) across western Kansas
  tonight.

- Very hot weather will return for the Saturday through Monday
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Low clouds have covered much of southwest Kansas this morning in
the wake of a cold front. Elevated t-storms formed north of
Dodge City and Garden City along a mid level baroclinic zone as
a shortwave trough passes across the central plains. This
precipitation will be out southwest Kansas by 3-4 am. Cooler
weather is forecast for today, with low clouds gradually burning
off with daytime heating. Expect highs near 80 along I-70, with
lower to mid 90s along the KS/OK state line.

By tonight the aforementioned cold front will lift back
northward as a warm front into southwest Kansas. Moistening at
low and mid levels may result in elevated instability and
thunderstorm development. Rain amounts are very uncertain, with
some model guidance showing more coverage than others. The
current forecast has 20-40% storm chances and this seems
reasonable.

West northwesterly mid level flow is forecast to persist on
Thursday as another shortwave trough traverses the northern
plains. Of course, given some mid level level wind component
across the Rockies, surface troughing is expected to develop on
the high plains, with a nearly stationary front persisting over
southwest Kansas. An isolated late afternoon t-storm or two
can't be ruled out in this pattern; and any storms could
develop into a larger cluster during the evening and overnight.
Any early evening storms could be severe given the moderate
surface based CAPE immediately on the cool side of the front
and strongly veering wind profile. However, there is
considerable uncertainty among the various model guidance suites
about how widespread overnight rains may be. The Grand Ensemble
indicates very low probabilities (10-30%) of .25" or more of
rain for Thursday night and Friday morning. But of course,
amounts would be much higher in any localized t-storms.

A front will linger across southwest Kansas even into Friday.
However, mid level (700mb) temperatures are expected to warm to
around 15C; so it will take full heating just to get one or two
isolated late day t-storms in the absence of upper level
support. But given the proximity of the front, small storm
chances (5-15% at any given location) are still warranted.

The upper level ridge is forecast to amplify across the high
plains by Saturday, with the low level frontal zone retreating
well north of I-70. As is typical in summer on the high plains,
the lower levels will dry out as the boundary layer deepens
and temperatures heat back up, leading to deep inverted-v type
soundings and negligible instability. Thus, Saturday will be a
dry and hot day, with readings 100+. However, given the dry air,
heat indices will be at or less than the actual temperatures.
Hot and dry conditions are forecast through Monday, with
afternoon highs from 100-105 and heat indices from 98 to 105.

The various ensemble means differ somewhat with the amplitude
and location of the upper level ridge by mid to late next week,
along with the frontal location. A stronger ridge would lead to
continued very hot and dry weather while a weaker ridge would
bring moisture southward into Kansas, along with small t-storm
chances and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Thunderstorms may affect(30% chance) KGCK and KHYS through 09z
as an upper level disturbance crosses the central plains along
with a mid level baroclinic zone. Low level moisture in the wake
of a cold front will result in low MVFR CIGS through 15z. With
daytime heating, CIGS are expected to gradually rise to VFR. Low
clouds are possible again toward the end of the period with
diurnal cooling.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

KSZ030-031-045-046-050600-
Rush KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NESS...SOUTHEASTERN
TREGO...NORTHERN RUSH AND SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM
CDT...

At 1231 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brownell, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brownell around 1235 AM CDT.
  McCracken around 1245 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9989 3870 9990 3875 9906 3848 9906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 269DEG 38KT 3862 9980

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

KSZ031-045-046-050630-
Rush KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NESS...RUSH AND
SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 1256 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McCracken, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Liebenthal around 105 AM CDT.
  Loretta around 115 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 9903 3851 9964 3870 9964 3870 9960
      3872 9960 3879 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 268DEG 34KT 3862 9950

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JJOHNSON