Tornado Warning 29, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
809 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for the NW counties
  through 9 PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe thunderstorms will roll into the west late
this afternoon and evening.

2) Cold front will pass tonight cooling things off, and cooler
air aloft under deep upper low will set up an unstable airmass
for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms will roll into
the west late this afternoon and evening.

Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the 3 MW counties
in CTP's CWA. Thinking is that the intitial batch/cluster of
storms in OH will move slowly and not arrive in Warren Co until
5 PM (21Z) or later. The watch may need to be expanded a
little to the east, and even extended a little in time (esp if
it is expanded) past the current exp time of 9 PM (01Z). The
main severe threat today is damaging wind gusts. But, the
initial storms/clusters may have some rotation to them.

Certainly worth monitoring the rainfall across tha area if the
storms stay slow-moving. But, the wind field looks more
linear/progressive as the night goes along. FFG in that area is
1.5-1.7"/1 hr. Not high, but also not all that low.

  -----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold front will pass tonight cooling things off,
and cooler air aloft under deep upper low will set up an
unstable airmass for Sunday and Monday.

The first batch of storms are ahead of the main cold front which
is being driven SE by a digging/deepening upper low to our NW.
The front will pass through late this evening in the NW and
before morning in the SE. Thunder will continue to be possible
overnight as the initial storms and then the front (with any
additional storms) roll through. However, the loss of daytime
instability and generally poorer severe components will cause
the weakening of the storms to sub-severe levels. Expect some
drying to occur overnight with dewpoints lowering slightly over
the NW half of the CWA. If we get some clearing, the ambient
moisture will help make fog again tonight.

Temps aloft will cool substantially. Even at 8H, temps will drop
10C over the next 30hrs. The resulting instability, especially
during the afternoon heating, will result in numerous SHRA/TSRA.
The most-favorable conditions will be across the nrn half of the
CWA Sunday where SPC has a MRGL risk for severe wind & hail.
Maxes only in the 60s and a brisk W wind will make it feel much
more like Sept/Oct than mid-Aug.

Similar conditions are expected for Monday with the center of
the upper low still hanging around our longitude and only
moving slowly poleward. The SHRA/TSRA will likely be confined to
only the nrn tier of counties in PA on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Working both shifts today, so 00Z TAF set done largely already
earlier this aft (18Z set), so main adjustment for the new set
is for timing of showers and storms as of early evening.

Back edge to most everything is near the PA, OH border.

More information below.

Much of the area is VFR as of early aft. Still a bit of lower
conditions across the far east.

Timing of showers and storms in the 12Z TAF package looks good,
so will use it. Best chance for a strong storm is near the
across the far northwest part of PA, where higher dewpts are
and also closer to the low pressure system.

Also a coastal low will keep a chance of shower or perhaps a
brief storm over the southeast.

For Sunday, went with VCSH at BFD, but dry otherwise, as wind
shift line is past our area.

Outlook...

Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions
return early next week.

Thu...Chance of showers and storms again.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ017-018-024-025.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
528 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

PAZ037-041-042-046-049>053-057>059-232130-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
528 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms with gusty
winds and hail are possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ064>066-232130-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
528 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ006-011-012-019-026>028-045-056-063-232130-
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Southern Clinton-Perry-Cumberland-
528 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms with gusty
winds and hail are possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ017-018-024-025-232130-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Cambria-Blair-
528 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail are possible this evening. Heavy rain from thunderstorms
may cause localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms with gusty
winds and hail are possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004-005-010-232130-
Warren-McKean-Elk-
528 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may cause isolated instances of
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms with gusty
winds and hail are possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ033>036-232130-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-
528 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail are possible this evening. Heavy rain from thunderstorms
may cause localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
520 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

PAZ024-033-222200-
Somerset PA-Cambria PA-
520 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SOMERSET AND CENTRAL
CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Westmont, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Johnstown, Westmont, Ebensburg, Belmont, Nanty-Glo, Northern Cambria,
Geistown, Southmont, Patton, Cresson, Gallitzin, Vinco, Loretto,
Hastings, Dale, East Conemaugh, South Fork, Carrolltown, Sankertown,
and Daisytown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4041 7897 4059 7887 4072 7871 4054 7850
      4051 7854 4048 7854 4024 7897 4031 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 228DEG 23KT 4037 7898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
537 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

PAZ004-222215-
Warren PA-
537 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 537 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles north of Oil City, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Enterprise and Tidioute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
north central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4177 7928 4163 7923 4162 7961 4166 7962
      4170 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 241DEG 25KT 4164 7959

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Teare

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
546 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

PAZ033-034-222230-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-
546 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bedford, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bedford, Clearville, Buffalo Mills, Hyndman, Manns Choice, New
Baltimore, and Rainsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3978 7878 3999 7877 4011 7844 3986 7834
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 252DEG 8KT 3993 7865

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
553 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

PAZ033-034-222215-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-
553 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 553 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Somerset, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Gordon, Hyndman, and New Baltimore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 7891 3997 7894 4003 7868 3976 7865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 264DEG 8KT 3989 7884

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
556 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

PAZ010-017-222230-
Clearfield PA-Elk PA-
556 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ELK AND NORTHWESTERN
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 556 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
DuBois, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Ridgway, Johnsonburg, Brandy Camp, Portland Mills,
Brockport, Kersey, and Treasure Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
north central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 7847 4115 7870 4118 7878 4120 7876
      4120 7871 4123 7871 4123 7874 4126 7873
      4133 7889 4158 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 199DEG 16KT 4126 7878

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Martin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
638 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Hail             0 S Ridgway             41.42N 78.73W
08/22/2026  E1.50 in         Elk                PA   Trained Spotter

            Report of hail approximately the size of
            golf balls in Ridgway.

&&
JRB