Tornado Warning 12, NWS State College, PA

380 
WWUS51 KCTP 181303
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
903 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

PAC123-181313-
/O.EXP.KCTP.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260618T1300Z/
Warren PA-
903 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
State College PA.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7902 4192 7921 4194 7928 4200 7931
TIME...MOT...LOC 1303Z 233DEG 40KT 4212 7897 

$$

Colbert

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
601 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Continued to increase wind gusts across the Laurels, higher
  confidence in Advisory-level winds.
* Little change with respect to the severe threat through this
  afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Marginal severe risk through this afternoon across all of
central Pennsylvania with damaging winds being the main hazard.

2) Windy conditions expected today, with highest wind gusts
across the Laurels where a Wind Advisory remains in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Marginal severe risk through this afternoon
across all of central Pennsylvania with damaging winds being the
main hazard.

Current radar presentation outlines showers across central
Pennsylvania with the nearest threat for thunderstorms across
southeastern Ohio, thus have nixed all thunderstorm mentions in
the near-term through sunrise Thursday morning. Current forecast
utilizes a HRRR/HREF blend as it appears NBM has been tracking
too slow with respect to the preceding shower activity across
all of Pennsylvania this morning. This blend also outlines
slightly better timing windows for thunderstorm mentions across
central Pennsylvania as the cold front approaches later this
morning and through the afternoon hours. In fact, bulk of model
guidance indicated much of central Pennsylvania will be dry by
18Z (2pm EDT) outside of some scattered showers as the cold
front moves east of the region by the late evening hours.

Speaking of the cold front, this will bring the best chances
for strong-to-severe thunderstorms throughout the morning and
afternoon hours. There was quite a bit of shower activity
compared to forecast this time yesterday, which could very
likely mute the severe threat across the region; however, cannot
ignore the current severe threat going on across southeastern
Ohio that does show that there is favorable amount of shear in
the atmosphere. Recent forecast does bring the northern end of
this activity into the southern tier slightly after sunrise, and
could see some severe threat in this region with recent hi-res
model guidance indicating some slight breaks in the clouds. This
has been highlighted in more recent HREF probabilities in
severe wind gusts, that highlighted less than 10% with the 00Z
run yesterday, but is now above 10% for portions of southeastern
Pennsylvania. Not a super large increase, but a slight increase
nonetheless. We do expect tornado potential (mentioned due to
observed TORs coming out of SE OH as of 4:30AM EDT) to become
less favorable as they approach central Pennsylvania given
slightly less veering in 850mb winds. Further north,
unidirectional wind profiles do promote some severe risk
throughout the morning and early afternoon hours with damaging
winds appearing to be the only threat.

---------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Windy conditions expected today, with highest
wind gusts across the Laurels where a Wind Advisory remains in
effect.

Anomalously strong surface low- pressure tracking through the
Lower Great Lakes will result in very windy day (especially by
June standards with near-record low MSLP) this afternoon. Recent
forecast outlines widespread maximum wind gusts between 35-45
mph this afternoon, with relatively higher wind gusts pushing
close to advisory criteria. The most recent NBM (QMD) 24-hour
maximum wind gust continues to highlight all of central
Pennsylvania reaching into the 35-45 mph range with portions of
the Laurel Highlands reaching into to the 45-50 mph range. Given
this prospect, continued with the Wind Advisory this cycle with
no changes; however, could realistically see a short-fused
expansion across the northwestern Alleghenies if observational
trends deem that gusts will overperform compared to previous
forecast that employs NBM 90th percentile wind gusts. It is of
note, that this set-up is similar to what we might see in March
with area of deep surface low pressure tracking across southern
Canada; however, this time of year poses a slightly different
hazard with fully leafed trees which could to a higher impact
versus our more typical cold season wind events.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Nice sunrise here at the office. Conditions are mainly VFR,
with a mid level cloud deck. Showers mainly near the MD border,
with perhaps a gusty wind.

Expect this activity to move along and be out of the area
by late morning or early aft.

More showers and storms could from by early afternoon, but
expect most of this activity to be across the far east and
south.

Main issue will the gusty winds from late morning into this
afternoon. Winds should weaken by or just after sunset.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...VFR with no significant weather.

Sun...Showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon
across the far west.

Mon...Restrictions possible with widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ024-033-034.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Beaty
KEY MESSAGES...Beaty
DISCUSSION...Beaty
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
445 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-025>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063-190845-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-
Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
445 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday morning could make
damaging winds. Wind gusts Thursday afternoon could be in the 40s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ024-033-034-190845-
Cambria-Somerset-Bedford-
445 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday morning could make
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ064>066-190845-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
445 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday morning and
very early afternoon. These storms could make damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-190845-
Warren-
445 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

West wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph are likely during the day
today, with some gusts approaching 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Beaty