Tornado Warning 11, NWS State College, PA

601 
WWUS51 KCTP 150130 RRA
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
930 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

PAC081-113-150139-
/O.CAN.KCTP.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260615T0145Z/
Lycoming PA-Sullivan PA-
930 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been 
cancelled. However, gusty winds are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for 
north central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 7625 4121 7701 4137 7712 4158 7666
      4154 7622
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 242DEG 46KT 4152 7651 

$$

Jurewicz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
745 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Higher confidence in timing of most thunderstorms (2 PM
  through 11 PM). Increased POPS for SHRA/TSRA layer this
  morning and this afternoon across the Wcent and Northern Mtns.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe storms expected for Central PA this
afternoon and evening.

2) Rare SPC Day 5 outlook for SVR TSRA potential across much of
PA on Thu 6/18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe storms expected for Central PA
this afternoon and evening. SPC's late morning upgrade added a
higher wind threat across NW PA (similar to the elevated, 30%
wind threat near and to the SE of the I-81 corridor in PA.

Plenty of multi-layered WAA clouds will cover the NW half of PA
late this morning and early this afternoon with a high
probability for a 30-90 minute period of showers associated with
an area of showers (and possibly a rumble of thunder) mainly to
the north of a line from KJST to KUNV and KIPT.

This initial area of convection is linked to a relatively weak
mid/upper level vort max lifting NE across the region ahead of
the main show (i.e. an anticipated line of strong to severe TRSA
that will sweep SE across the CWA this afternoon and evening).

This lead area of convection shouldn't intensify much, if any,
as its moving over an area with plenty of cloud cover and SBCIN
of 200-500 j/kg.

In contrast, partly sunny skies should last into the mid
afternoon hours near and to the east of I-81. SFC Based CAPE is
with no CIN is already up into the 1000-1500 J/KG range across
the Lower Susq - south of KMDT and KLNS thanks to the better sfc
heating and injection of higher llvl moisture (Sfc Tds in the
mid 60s) north off the Chesapeake Bay.

The temperatures should still get near convective temp in the
early afternoon in the west. Storm motion will bring these into
Central PA while additional but isolated storms pop up over the
CWA.

A cold front will be sweeping across the CWA later today and
early tonight. That front will be the main focus for
thunderstorms late this aftn and this evening. A pre- frontal
trough may develop a few storms in the more-humid region of the
Lower Susq in the afternoon, but models have backed off somewhat
on this possibility with the 00Z runs. Time- lagged ensembles
still hold onto some hope for this, but the trend is drier and
for fewer storms in the air over the central mountains and Susq
Valley. A cap aloft will probably stifle deep convection in
those areas before 5 PM EDT until heights start to fall and
lapse rates steepen.

The dewpoints in the SE are already a little higher than the
rest of the CWA, and will rise even more through the day, but
high moisture (Td in the m-u 60s) will also pool ahead of the
front. Deep-layer (0-6km) shear ramps up to nearly 45KT and
CAPE could touch 2000J/kg in the S and more than 100 in the N.
Hodographs get slightly curved before the front, and the NAM
generates helicity over 300 in the late aftn and early evening -
just ahead of the front - in many places. So, supercells are
possible for a brief window. Mostly, the storms will be multi-
cell clusters. Wind damage will be the most probably threat.
Hail less so, and tornadoes even lower. However, the LCLs will
be low which could make it easier for tornado formation should
discrete cells develop. The front picks up speed in the evening,
and should push all the storms past BFD close to 8 PM, and
through LNS around 11 PM.

   ------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rare SPC Day 5 outlook for SVR TSRA potential
across much of PA on Thu 6/18

The nose of a very strong, 40+ KT swrly 850 mb jet 50+ KT at 700
mb (both being 3+ sigma on the standardized anomaly scale), the
the right entrance region of a 100 KT 250 mb jet and PWATS
around 1.5 inches (with the potential of a EML surging in from
the west ahead of a strong sfc cold front) will bring the ideal
synoptic setup for a severe weather outbreak here in the CWA. As
always, even with the moisture, instability and shear present,
such strong forcing could produces plenty of clouds and early
day convection to stabilize the atmos and decrease the potential
for significant afternoon severe weather. We'll be monitoring
this potential closely as we head into the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cluster of storms near the MDT area and a line to the west
will be the main concern the next few hours.

Expect lower CIGS overnight, before high pressure builds into
the area on Monday. Winds will weaken once storms move out
of the area but pick back up on Monday.

Outlook...

Tue...Mostly VFR with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible.

Wed...Higher chances for -SHRA/-TSRA, restrictions more likely.

Thu...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.

Fri...Showers ending.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
837 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

PAZ028-036-042-051>053-056>059-063>066-160045-
Juniata-Franklin-Sullivan-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
837 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-025>027-033>035-037-041-045-046-049-050-160045-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
837 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...TORNADO WATCH 336 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-010-011-017-024-160045-
Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-
837 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004-005-160045-
Warren-McKean-
837 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
846 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

PAZ019-025>028-034-049-050-150115-
Bedford PA-Union PA-Blair PA-Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-
Snyder PA-Southern Centre PA-
846 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD...
HUNTINGDON...MIFFLIN...SOUTHEASTERN CENTRE...JUNIATA...WESTERN
SNYDER...SOUTHERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 915
PM EDT...

At 845 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Millheim to Belleville to Martinsburg.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Huntingdon, Lewisburg, Mifflinburg, Woodward, Mount Union,
Burnham, Martinsburg, Belleville, Milroy, Linntown, Highland Park,
Middleburg, Honey Grove, Yeagertown, Mcalisterville, McClure,
Millheim, Spruce Hill, and Strodes Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for south central
and central Pennsylvania.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
south central and central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 7791 4012 7803 4026 7838 4061 7798
      4066 7775 4092 7750 4099 7687 4060 7720
      4048 7737 4041 7753 4038 7753 4035 7760
      4022 7775 4006 7787
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 268DEG 24KT 4088 7747 4060 7774 4022 7836

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Beaty

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
848 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 N Austin              41.69N 78.09W
06/14/2026                   Potter             PA   Public

            Multiple trees down by Upper Bark Shanty
            Road and State Route 872.

&&

JBL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
849 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Dunnstown           41.14N 77.42W
06/14/2026  M58 MPH          Clinton            PA   AWOS

            50KT wind gust at KLHV.

&&

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
852 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Cherry Springs St 41.67N 77.83W
06/14/2026                   Potter             PA   Public

            Tree down on Cherry Springs Road.

&&

JBL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
853 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     Hail             3 SE Brogue             39.83N 76.41W
06/14/2026  M0.88 Inch       York               PA   Trained Spotter

&&

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
858 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Lorain            40.30N 78.89W
06/14/2026                   Cambria            PA   Public

            Multiple trees down on Bedford Street.

&&

JBL