Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1005 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Flash flooding ongoing in north central PA Sun evening.
  Additional heavy showers and thunderstorms moving in from the
  west.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential for heavy rain/localized flooding into tonight

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential for heavy rain/localized flooding into
tonight

A decision was made early on the evening shift to expand the
Flash Flood Watch eastward across the north central mountains
through Sullivan Co. This area has since been the focal point
for a training axis of heavy rainfall, producing over 5 inches
of rain at IPT and surrounding areas. Flash flooding has been
observed in Lycoming and Union counties, and small streams and
creeks are still on the rise in Sullivan Co. The heavy rain also
led to river flooding at Penns Creek in Union County. This
prompted us to issue a River Flood Warning - the first river
FLW since Jul 1, 2025 other than an FLW for ice jam flooding in
February of this year.

A line of thunderstorms moving across the Laurels this evening
has generally been progressive in nature, dropping less than 1
inch of rain over an hour in any given location, despite
estimated instantaneous rainfall rates closer to 4" per hour. We
will continue to monitor this feature closely as it translates
northeastward, especially as it approaches Union/Lycoming/Sullivan
counties, where saturated soils certainly would not be able to
handle much additional water. The good news is that CAPE does
decrease with northeastern extent.

We also continue to monitor the convection for areas of
rotation. The LLJ has increased early this evening to 35 kts
across eastern PA (25 kts over our western zones). Several
storms have exhibited mostly weak rotation. We did issue a
tornado warning for a rotating discrete cell in western Warren
County early this evening that has since expired.

For now, the best heavy rain/severe wx signal is to the south
and east of CPA tomorrow/Monday. Heading into the work week,
latest model QPF data now favors a break in the rain through
early week before daily shower/t-storm chances return Wed-Fri.
Some localized heavy rain and marginal flooding risk will
continue into late week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 0150 UTC, main precipitation feature on radar is a squall
line moving out of the Laurels into AOO currently and UNV within
the hour, bringing brief LIFR/IFR restrictions and gusts 20-30
kt. Less confidence in this line being maintained as it moves
towards IPT/MDT/LNS, where instability is weaker. Additional
showers/tstms of lesser intensity in the area possible through
about 07z.

Restrictions down to IFR are likely to follow the precip
region- wide later tonight. Latest guidance indicates LIFR
appears most probable at BFD, JST, and IPT (40-60 pct chc).
These IFR conditions are likely to linger into early morning at
most TAF sites before MVFR becomes the favored regime later
tomorrow morning, with breaks to VFR possible especially after
18z Mon. Some valley fog may develop Monday night.

Outlook...
Tue...AM valley fog possible, otherwise mainly VFR
Wed-Fri...Daily chances for showers and isolated t-storms. Low
VFR to MVFR conditions prevailing most of the time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are a few key climate callouts to wrap up July 2026:

2nd wettest at Bradford (7.78"/+3.62" above normal)

6th wettest at Altoona (6.18"/+2.70" above normal)

10th wettest at State College (6.09"/+2.30" above normal)

6th most # of days with maxT >=100F at Harrisburg (3)
T3rd most # of days with maxT >=100F at Williamsport (2)

In August, the daylength decreases by 2-2.5 min/day with a
total loss of ~ 70 minutes by the end of the month.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024-025-033-034-041-042-045-046-049.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Lambrech
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
401 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-041-042-045-046-049-
032015-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
401 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ026>028-035>037-050>053-056>059-063>066-032015-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
401 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated swaths of heavy rain may result in localized flash flooding
tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts
are possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
959 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

PAZ017>019-025-026-030230-
Northern Centre PA-Clearfield PA-Blair PA-Huntingdon PA-
Southern Centre PA-
959 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLEARFIELD...
NORTHWESTERN HUNTINGDON...SOUTHWESTERN CENTRE AND EASTERN BLAIR
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

At 959 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles southeast of Clearfield to near Tyrone
to 10 miles southeast of Hollidaysburg. Movement was northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Huntingdon, Tyrone, Park Forest Village, Philipsburg, Stormstown,
Bald Eagle, Martinsburg, Warriors Mark, Pine Grove Mills,
Williamsburg, Osceola Mills, Chester Hill, Ramblewood, North
Philipsburg, Port Matilda, South Philipsburg, Sandy Ridge, Spruce
Creek, Julian, and Birmingham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 7833 4067 7823 4089 7833 4102 7817
      4098 7799 4077 7788 4045 7790 4028 7798
      4025 7824 4030 7826 4024 7830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 230DEG 20KT 4088 7825 4066 7808 4030 7829

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bauco

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1024 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

PAZ012-017>019-026-027-030300-
Northern Centre PA-Northern Clinton PA-Clearfield PA-Huntingdon PA-
Mifflin PA-Southern Centre PA-
1024 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLEARFIELD...
NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON...MIFFLIN...CENTRE AND WEST CENTRAL CLINTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT...

At 1024 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 18 miles east of Clearfield to near State
College to near Huntingdon. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
State College, Lewistown, Bellefonte, Park Forest Village, Boalsburg,
Pleasant Gap, Mount Union, Lemont, Burnham, Zion, Belleville,
Houserville, Pine Grove Mills, Milroy, Highland Park, Centre Hall,
Milesburg, Yeagertown, Ramblewood, and Karthaus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 7804 4069 7794 4118 7822 4121 7804
      4122 7785 4118 7779 4115 7779 4111 7775
      4110 7769 4083 7752 4053 7759 4038 7775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 248DEG 27KT 4103 7809 4072 7785 4039 7798

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Bauco

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1046 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     Flash Flood      2 NE Hartleton          40.92N 77.13W
08/02/2026                   Union              PA   911 Call Center

            Road closed due to flooding affecting the
            bridge.

&&

JAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1048 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Flash Flood      4 NNW Spruce Run Reserv 41.07N 77.04W
08/02/2026                   Union              PA   911 Call Center

            Portion of White Deer Pike closed due to
            flooding over roadway.

&&

JAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1058 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

PAZ019-026>028-034>036-049-050-056-030330-
Perry PA-Bedford PA-Union PA-Fulton PA-Franklin PA-Juniata PA-
Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-Southern Centre PA-
1058 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL BEDFORD...SOUTHERN
HUNTINGDON...NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN...MIFFLIN...SOUTHEASTERN
CENTRE...NORTHEASTERN FULTON...JUNIATA...SOUTHWESTERN SNYDER...
SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND WEST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM
EDT...

At 1058 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles southeast of Bellefonte to 11 miles
south of Lewistown to Breezewood. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Mount Union, Burnham, Everett, Belleville, Milroy,
Highland Park, Honey Grove, Yeagertown, Mcalisterville, McClure,
Spruce Hill, Strodes Mills, Reedsville, Juniata Terrace, Waterfall,
Mexico, Rockhill Furnace, Wells Tannery, and Fort Littleton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 7723 4047 7727 4002 7792 4001 7837
      4013 7831 4051 7776 4084 7763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 258DEG 27KT 4079 7756 4044 7763 4003 7827

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bauco

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1131 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

PAZ027-028-050-030400-
Juniata PA-Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-
1131 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MIFFLIN...
NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA AND WESTERN SNYDER COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
EDT...

At 1131 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Lewistown, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Middleburg, Mcalisterville, McClure, Beaver Springs, Richfield, Mount
Pleasant Mills, Paxtonville, Troxelville, Alfarata, Belltown,
Snyder-Middleswart State Park, Reeds Gap State Park, Beavertown, East
Salem, and Wagner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4064 7745 4074 7748 4081 7732 4087 7707
      4061 7700 4059 7717 4057 7718 4057 7736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 258DEG 30KT 4067 7736

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Bauco