Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
113 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Risk for severe storms over the southern half of Pennsylvania
  has increased with a Severe Thunderstorm watch in effect
  until 00Z.
* Reiterating bearish trend for max temps Friday and Saturday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible over the southern tier of CPA this
afternoon/evening

2) Major cooldown to close out the week and start Memorial Day
weekend with widespread soaking rainfall over 1 inch Friday and
Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:
Scattered storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will
be possible over the southern tier of CPA this afternoon/evening

The surface cold front currently over the northern tier of
Pennsylvania will advance south and east across CPA today
before stalling out to the south of the MD line tonight into
Thursday. Convective initiation is already being observed over
southern PA along the MD/PA boarder ahead of the front. Moist
and unstable air ahead of the cold front combined with
increasing low level convergence will lead to additional
thunderstorm development as we move through the afternoon
across the southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the forecast area. The
atmosphere is continuing to destablize with CAPE between 1500
and 2000 j/kg over the lower Susquehanna Valley and Seven
Mountains. Steep low level laps rates along with sufficient
0-6km shear and previously mentioned instability should support
a few stronger storms with potential for severe wind gusts and
isolated hail. SPC has upgraded portions of our CWA to a D1
Slight risk over the south, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is now in effect until 00Z tonight. HREF/REFS also indicate
potential for locally heavy rainfall >1" near the MD line as
showers and storms likely persist through the evening into the
overnight period across the southern tier of CPA.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2:
Major cooldown to close out the week and start Memorial Day
weekend with widespread soaking rainfall over 1 inch Friday and
Saturday

Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on
Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across
the LSV. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes
to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data
shows the high channeling southward down the east-side of the
Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming (CAD) event heading
into Memorial Day weekend.

Increasing CAD signal strength enhanced by moderately strong
east/southeast low level flow and soaking rainfall has prompted
a considerable bearish/lower adjustment to max temps Friday and
Saturday. In fact, highs on Saturday are near daily record lows
at several locations (mini/max). Guidance may be too optimistic
in rebounding temps Sunday into Monday, but opted to keep
baseline NBM for now. That said, the trend will be to moderate
warmer with steadier rain giving way to more showery conditions
for the unofficial start of summer.

NBM/WPC QPF continues to show widespread 48hr rainfall totals
in the 1-2 inch range Friday-Saturday. The cool/stable air will
cap rates with longer duration helping to mitigate flooding
risk in most areas. The forecast rainfall is much needed over
the far south central/southeastern counties who remain under
D1-D2 moderate to severe drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The MCS across western PA this evening has largely decayed,
with the main flight impacts being brief westerly wind gusts
around 20-25 kts & spotty showers for the Central Mountains
(primarily KAOO/KUNV) through 07-08Z Wednesday. Ceilings are
expected to lower NW-SE as a cold front approaches, with highest
confidence in restrictions at KBFD/KJST. Downsloping W/NW winds
are expected to limit the extent of ceiling restrictions to
MVFR elsewhere, with improvements to VFR after the front passes
during the evening.

There is high (~70-80%) confidence on SHRA/TSRA reforming
during the late morning to early afternoon hours (mainly after
16Z) with increasing coverage into the evening hours. Current
SHRA mentions have been included at all terminals based on
recent forecast/HREF/GLAMP model guidance with most uncertainty
with respect to timing. In terms of TSRA coverage, the highest
potential at this time is outlined across SE PA (MDT/LNS) where
HREF highlights SBCAPE upwards of around 1000 J/kg, though
SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg may support TSRA across
KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT as well, with PROB30s added to address this
possibility. Locally gusty winds are possible as well given low-
level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km in the afternoon, though
confidence is low regarding the extent and strength of wind
gusts.

Winds shift northerly behind the frontal passage this evening,
with anafrontal rain developing across South/East PA during the
evening/overnight hours.

Outlook...

Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible.

Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to
north, lasting into Fri night.

Sat-Sun...Restrictions likely with rain.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bowen
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bowen
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bowen
AVIATION...Beaty/Teare

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1244 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-037-041-042-045-046-049-051-
211645-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Montour-
1244 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for this afternoon.
A few of these storms could be strong and contain damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ026>028-033>036-050-052-053-056>059-063>066-211645-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Snyder-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
1244 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

PAZ034-201615-
Bedford PA-
1151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...

At 1151 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Cumberland, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clearville, Lake Gordon, Inglesmith, Hyndman, and Rainsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7871 3985 7872 3993 7833 3974 7836
      3972 7838 3972 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 267DEG 23KT 3977 7861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Bauco

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1215 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

PAZ034-035-201645-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-
1215 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM EDT...

At 1215 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles west of Hancock, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Inglesmith and Barnes Gap.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7856 3984 7856 3990 7824 3972 7825
      3972 7854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 267DEG 23KT 3977 7848

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bauco

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1245 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

PAZ034-035-201715-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-
1245 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD AND SOUTHERN
FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

At 1244 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hancock to 18 miles south of Breezewood to
15 miles north of Paw Paw. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warfordsburg, Big Cove Tannery, Needmore, Barnes Gap, Inglesmith, and
Locust Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
south central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 7854 3991 7796 3982 7801 3973 7809
      3972 7854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 273DEG 30KT 3979 7825 3975 7836 3975 7847

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bauco

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