Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
227 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Thunderstorm initiation underway across western PA. Several
  reports of frequent lightning and pea size hail thus far.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A line of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening precedes
unseasonably cool Thursday. Thunderstorms may contain gusty
winds and small hail.

2) Significant summerlike warmup ramps into early next week
with the highest temperatures of the year so far.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A line of thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening precedes unseasonably cool Thursday. Thunderstorms may
contain gusty winds and small hail.

A seasonably strong upper level trough will dig through the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley today and develop into a closed low over
the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England region before
ejecting to the northeast on Friday. The associated sfc low
moving east from Lower Michigan toward northern New York will
drag a trailing cold front across the Alleghenies this afternoon
and evening. Steepening midlevel lapse rates, especially in
north central and NW PA, will support convection with frequent
lightning and mostly pea to dime size hail, although some of the
strongest cells could contain quarter size hail. Sufficient
(30-40kt) deep layer shear and steepening low level lapse rates
support a marginal wind threat as well.

The HREF/REFS show the primary frontal band exiting the eastern
portion of the CWA after 14/03Z. If there is some clearing
overnight (best chance from the Susq River eastward), moist low
levels cloud result in patchy fog into early Thu AM. Plenty of
clouds lingering across the western highlands should prohibit
fog in that area.

Scattered showers linger into Thursday beneath the upper low.
Thursday will be the coldest day of the week. Max temps will be
unseasonably cool and quite chilly for mid May with highs in
the 45-60F range or 10 to 20 degrees below the historical
average (frequent 20-25 mph wind gusts will only add to the
chill).

Conditions will dry out on Friday with daytime highs rebounding
+10-20 degrees vs. Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant summerlike warmup ramps into early
next week with the highest temperatures of the year so far.

After a cool start to May, guidance continues to signal a
significant warmup on the horizon for this weekend into early
next week. This large scale pattern shift should deliver a
rather sudden warm surge with max temps projected to reach well
into the 80s and even lower 90s. Daily record highs may be
challenged based on the current fcst Monday and Tuesday.

There may be some potential Heatrisk considerations looming for
early next week. This stems not only with the forecast high
temperatures, but also from an acclimation perspective
especially after a rather cool stretch of weather during the
first half of May. Probabilistic Heatrisk shows >50% odds for
moderate or higher levels across south central PA with fcst
heat index values starting to exceed 95F Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect TSRA activity to pick up from NW to SE along and ahead of
a cold front. BFD will see a glancing blow from a thunderstorm by
19z, with small hail and strong gusty winds possible especially
just north of the airfield. TSRA will then be possible at JST,
AOO, UNV, and IPT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms
will be on a weakening trend as the arrive in MDT/LNS after 00z.

As the upper level low drops to the south tonight into Thursday,
moisture will wrap around the low. This will result in low
stratus and showers especially across the mountains. A brief
window for clearing later tonight in the east may result in
patchy fog along and east of the Susq River. Low stratus will
result in cig restrictions in the western airfields all day
Thursday, potentially dropping as low as LIFR at BFD and JST
later tonight into early Thursday.

Conditions will improve later on Friday, as the low moves away
from the area.

Outlook...

Thu...Lingering clouds and showers with restrictions north/west
and improvement southeast.

Fri...VFR likely.

Sat-Mon...VFR is likely much of the time, although brief
restrictions are possible with isolated afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temperature of 25 degrees was tied (1963) at
Bradford yesterday.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
335 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-140745-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
335 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few thunderstorms with isolated strong to marginally severe wind
gusts are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
259 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

PAZ010-131945-
Elk PA-
259 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ELK COUNTY THROUGH 345
PM EDT...

At 259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marienville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Johnsonburg around 320 PM EDT.
  Wilcox and East Branch Dam around 325 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 7848 4160 7842 4150 7842 4133 7889
      4137 7897 4135 7902 4136 7904 4134 7910
      4141 7910 4143 7906 4145 7906 4145 7898
      4144 7896 4153 7896 4163 7876 4163 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 239DEG 38KT 4139 7901

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Jurewicz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
340 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

PAZ010-132015-
Elk PA-
340 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ELK COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

At 339 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
St. Marys, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Force, Benezette, Medix Run, Brandy Camp, Brockport, Hicks
Run, Kersey, and Weedville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 7842 4140 7842 4140 7825 4132 7825
      4132 7824 4127 7824 4124 7840 4125 7864
      4122 7865 4120 7870 4123 7871 4123 7874
      4126 7873 4131 7884 4138 7872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 252DEG 36KT 4133 7858

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
354 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

PAZ006-011-132030-
Potter PA-Cameron PA-
354 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN POTTER AND NORTHERN
CAMERON COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 353 PM EDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm 20 miles east of St. Marys, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cameron, Wharton, Emporium, Sizerville, and Austin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 7775 4148 7789 4148 7797 4146 7799
      4143 7829 4150 7835 4158 7831 4167 7795
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 253DEG 36KT 4152 7817

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
408 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

PAZ006-037-132100-
Potter PA-Tioga PA-
408 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL POTTER AND WEST
CENTRAL TIOGA COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24
miles west of Wellsboro, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Galeton, Westfield, Gaines, Denton Hill State Park, Lyman Run State
Park, Sweden Valley, and Ski Denton Ski Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4168 7792 4171 7799 4180 7797 4195 7754
      4172 7745
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 249DEG 23KT 4177 7778

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
429 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

PAZ006-012-037-041-132115-
Potter PA-Northern Clinton PA-Northern Lycoming PA-Tioga PA-
429 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LYCOMING...
SOUTHEASTERN POTTER...WESTERN TIOGA AND NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 429 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 18 miles west of Wellsboro to 29 miles
northwest of Lock Haven. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wellsboro, Morris, Renovo, Galeton, Cross Fork, Leetonia, Leonard
Harrison State Park, Tamarack, Kettle Creek State Park, Cedar Run,
Cammal, Slate Run, Ole Bull State Park, English Center, Little Pine
State Park, Tioga, and Ski Sawmill Ski Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4192 7713 4157 7714 4135 7726 4134 7800
      4137 7799 4146 7799 4162 7787 4170 7773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 254DEG 40KT 4172 7765 4150 7776

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert