Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
227 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Slight Risk severe weather outlook introduced for Wednesday
  north of PA Turnpike

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summerlike warmth visits the region this week with near-record
daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

2) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during
the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely
occurring across northern and western PA. Some storms may be
severe, particularly on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike warmth visits the region this week
with near-record daily maxes and daily mins on tap for Wednesday
and Thursday.

Ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a
mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with
downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the
eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with
daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from
today onward.

The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the
region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows
both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than
our average highs this time of year (25 to 30 deg F above
normal).

Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and
60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will
feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable.

     ----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms
expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of
rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. Some
storms may be severe, particularly on Wednesday.

In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run
from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low
pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set
up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled
weather in place across northwest PA in particular.

This afternoon and evening, a few clusters of thunderstorms
could tap into 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to produce isolated
pockets of damaging wind gusts. A lack of upper level forcing
over Central PA means we will be dependent on surface-based
organization associated with a potential MCS to produce a
significant/sustained wind threat. The SPC issued an MCD around
2PM for a developing MCS over northeast Ohio. That complex will
make its way into Central PA between 5 and 8PM, which is the
most likely window for severe weather.

The severe weather outlook climbs to Slight Risk for Wednesday,
fueled in part by increasing low level heat and humidity as
dewpoints rise to near 60F. Cool temps aloft will result in
steep lapse rates with SBCAPE progged above 1000J/kg across much
of central PA. With about 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, discrete
cells and clusters/linear segments will be possible.

Over the course of the workweek, the probability for
showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that
have been wet lately will continue to see more rain with 1-2
inches expected by Friday, while drought-stricken locations
across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms earlier have diminished; however,
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area
in the near term (mainly through 03-04Z Wednesday) with the
remnants of an MCS approaching from the west. Airfields under
the gun for thunderstorms at this time mainly look to be BFD/JST
and potentially AOO/UNV/IPT; however, highest odds for the
airfields closest to NW PA. Timing has been been brought in to
encompass tighter timing windows compared to previous TAF
packages; however, there does remain some uncertainty with
respect to coverage/timing. A secondary wave of showers and
thunderstorms will be expected overnight (~08-13Z Wed); however,
coverage on this looks more limited so have kept mentions to
BFD/JST based on recent RAP/HREF/NBM model guidance. Slightly
lower confidence in any lingering elevated instability so have
no mentions of TSRA, but not totally out of the question some
TSRA at BFD/JST for this secondary timeframe.

Lowest ceilings look to be just above MVFR thresholds across
all airfields outside of BFD, where more low-level moisture in
recent RAP soundings outline the potential for MVFR-to-IFE
ceilings overnight. Previous forecast also had these mentions
and main changes came with respect to timing of low-level deck
onset. After sunrise, all model guidance points towards VFR
conditions area wide with a scattered low-to-mid level deck
across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
on the docket for tomorrow as well; however, most mentions will
not be coming until after 18Z Wed so no mentions towards the end
of this TAF package at this juncture.

Outlook...

Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in
hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north
and west.

Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the
afternoon.

Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as
summerlike warmth visits the region. Here's a look at the
records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the
forecast is equal to or greater than the record.

Record High Daily Max / Daily Min...

For Harrisburg:
April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023)
April 16: 89  (2002) / 63* (1941)
April 17: 91  (2002) / 60* (2002)

For Williamsport:
April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023)
April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023)
April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco/Beaty
CLIMATE...Colbert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
421 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

PAZ033>036-042-053-056>059-063>066-150830-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Sullivan-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
421 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A
few storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and small hail
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and
evening. A few storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and
small hail possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-037-041-045-046-049>052-150830-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-
421 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A
few storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and small hail
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.