Severe Thunderstorm Warning 350, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
301 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Severe Weather Watch #665 in place for Northwestern PA for
  severe storms this evening

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and scattered strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms, with the threat for localized gusty to damaging
winds for late today and early tonight, mainly across the NW
third of PA.

2) Showers confined to southern tier of PA Thursday. Dry
conditions Friday before unsettled weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and scattered strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms, with the threat for localized gusty to damaging
winds for late today and early tonight, mainly across the NW
third of PA.

Increasingly southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft will
carry warm and humid air into the region today, in advance of a
cold front moving southeast across the Upper Great Lakes. An
axis of high PWAT air (1.75"+) will reach the south shore of
Lake Erie during the early afternoon, then sag SE across the NW
Mtns early this evening before reaching the Southern Tier of PA
before daybreak Thursday.

This surge of moisture, coupled with clearing in West/Central
PA, has allowed for sufficient instability to develop for
storms to feed on in this evening. Latest RAP Mesoanalysis has
2000+ SBCAPE J/kg nosing its way into Western PA and 1000+ J/kg
in the western half of the state. Lapse rates aloft aren't very
impressive though, leading to tall but skinny CAPE profiles
expected this evening. This favors heavy, efficient
precipitation and coupled with Confordi Vectors expected in the
10-15kt range could lead to training storms. Isolated flash
flooding in Northwest PA is possible as a result, but fast
enough storm speed should preclude a more widespread threat.

The main deep layer shear and upper level forcing though
remains in Southern Michigan as of 18Z and is still a few hours
away from Northwest PA. This leads to uncertainty regarding
storm coverage and degree of organization. Should these features
align with the best CAPE this evening, greater coverage and
more organization of storms is more likely. A jet developing at
850mb this evening, coupled with forward storm speed and
precipitation loading in downdrafts, will allow for damaging
wind gusts to be the main hazard. Low level shear from this 850mb
jet will allow for 0-1km and 0-3km shear to be in the 20-30kt
range this evening. Coupled with cyclonic low level hodograph
curvature, a transient tornado threat may emerge from embedded
supercell structures and/or mesovorticies depending on the
dominant storm mode. Day cloud phase has shown an area of
enhanced cumulus clouds this afternoon in the northern PA
counties. This indicates a potential low level boundary present,
which may act as a focus for storms and source of extra
vorticity for storms to ingest. Storms are anticipated to weaken
as they push further south and east tonight with increasingly
unfavorable instability. However, they will still be capable of
producing localized heavy downpours.

--------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers confined to southern tier of PA
Thursday. Dry conditions Friday before unsettled weekend.

The most recent WPC ERO has pushed most of the Day 2 Marginal
to our south. Some lingering precipitation in the early morning
may occur in the southern tier as the previous night's wave
pushes through. The main shot of precipitation tomorrow is most
likely in the southern tier, particularly in the southwest, as
the cold front moves through in the afternoon. Most 6hr HREF
PMMs stay below 1" tomorrow afternoon and evening, but some
locally heavy rain remains possible.

High pressure builds behind the cold front, giving way to a dry
and sunny Friday. Low level moisture lurking just south of the
Mason/Dixon line Fri night will advance NE across the state on
Saturday as SFC high pressure moves well off the Mid Atlantic
and Southern New England Coast. This will lead to some showers
spreading NE across the region with a few PM TSRA possible
Saturday and/or Sunday afternoons, especially over the western
mtns. A more- active (wetter) pattern is in store for Mon-Tues.
But, the flat upper ridge over the southern half of the CONUS
will make it difficult for deep moisture to make it into PA
ahead of any shots of atmos forcing. The second half of the week
probably ends dry as the upper ridge pumps up over the central
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18z update... For much of the daylight hours, VFR/unrestricted
conditions are anticipated, with locally gusty S-SW surface
winds.

A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to
cross much of PA this evening, generally losing steam with
southeastward extent over time. The highest confidence in
thunder is at KBFD, so we indicated the most likely 3-hour
window there for TSRA development early this evening. Elsewhere,
confidence is only 30-50% at best, so we'll use a strategy to
amend for TSRA as needed.

Later tonight into early Thursday, there is a high probability
(70-80%) of low cloud development across the central and western
portions of the Commonwealth. We have high enough confidence to
go with IFR restrictions at KBFD and KJST, with MVFR-fuel
alternate restrictions anticipated at KAOO, KUNV, and KIPT. At
this early juncture, we expect KMDT and KLNS to stay VFR.

By midday Thursday, cloud bases should be in the process of
lifting, with improving categories across the board.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR conditions expected.

Sat-Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, with some potential for
afternoon SHRA/TSRA on at least a hit and miss basis.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambrech
KEY MESSAGES...Lambrech
DISCUSSION...Lambrech
AVIATION...Jurewicz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
257 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

PAZ024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063>066-101900-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
257 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heavy rainfall is possible Thursday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ012-018-019-037-041-042-045-046-101900-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
257 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible late
today into early tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-101900-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-
257 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
552 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

PAZ004-092215-
Warren PA-
552 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM EDT...

At 552 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Spring Creek, or 18 miles west of Warren, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Youngsville, Spring Creek, Lottsville, Garland and Starbrick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4182 7958 4194 7958 4200 7920 4176 7921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 270DEG 29KT 4188 7949

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bauco

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
615 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

PAZ004-092245-
Warren PA-
615 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM EDT...

At 615 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Warren South, or near Warren, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Warren, Russell, Scandia, Warren South, Kinzua Dam and Starbrick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4181 7927 4194 7928 4199 7892 4183 7892
      4183 7895 4178 7895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 269DEG 29KT 4188 7922

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bauco