Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
321 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Risk of damaging winds and tornado potential increased over
  the northern tier

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Late summer surge of heat and humidity continues severe
thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat through Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer surge of heat and humidity continues
severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat through
Thursday

A series of mid level impulses tracking eastward along the
northern periphery of an expansive 500mb ridge will continue to
interact with anomalous moisture/instability and strong WNW flow
aloft to promote severe storm and excessive rain risk through
Thursday.

After a round of severe storms this morning, robust
destabilization is occurring across western and central PA with
plenty of heating and very rich dewpoints in the 70-75F range.
More thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through the
evening in an convective environment highly supportive of
organized storms capable of all severe weather hazards. There is
also the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding especially
were storms repeat over the same area.

Increased southwest to westerly flow on Thursday will push the
will continue to pump in the late summer heat and very high
dewpoints. Heat advisory remains in effect from 11a-8p Thursday
across a portion of south central PA where max heat index values
are projected to reach/exceed 100F.

The severe risk will be focused more across the southwest
quadrant of central PA Thursday, and south of the PA-MD border
on Friday. An upper trough passage favors one final round of
showers and storms on Friday, but fortunately the Labor Day
weekend is trending dry. The upper ridge is forecast to
retrograde by the end of the week which allows for a return to
more seasonal temperatures and lower humidity this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some of the least certain terminal forecasts I have ever made,
even during lake effect snows. The possibility, but not
certainty, of convection exists throughout the entire TAF
period for almost all sites. Pointing out a few more-likely
times are the best I could do at this point. After a patch of
SHRA/TSRA affects IPT this aftn, it could slide S into MDT/LNS,
but it is not more than a 40% chc of getting to those two sites.
Most guidance then develops convection over western PA and
sliding into the airspace over Central PA before 22Z. That
possible area of SHRA/TSRA could (50%) last into the late
evening while inching eastward. A significant push of forcing
moves in from NY toward 03Z. The batch of convection it will
fire up has been fairly consistent with previous guidance and
would drop into a pool of very low stability and high moisture.
These SHRA/TSRA would certainly drop into BFD and then IPT-UNV.
They could survive into the southern half of the airspace for
the post- sunrise hours. I would have put more/lower visby fog
into the terminals if I thought it would clear out after the sun
sets. Still mentioned a period of fog for the western terminals
later tonight.

Outlook...

Thu...Scattered-Numerous SHRA/TSRA with brief restrictions
possible; morning fog.

Fri...Scattered SHRA/TSRA SW. VFR elsewhere after morning fog.

Sat-Mon...VFR favored; morning fog possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ026>028-
035-036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Dangelo

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
524 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

PAZ034-022200-
Bedford PA-
524 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY UNTIL 6
PM EDT...

At 524 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bedford, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Bedford, Breezewood, Clearville, Everett and Manns Choice.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 70 between mile markers 147 and 149. The Pennsylvania
Turnpike between mile markers 139 and 162. Interstate 99 between mile
markers 0 and 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3997 7863 4009 7860 4004 7821 3984 7831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 280DEG 14KT 3999 7850

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bowen

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
559 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Everett            40.01N 78.38W
09/02/2026                   Bedford            PA   911 Call Center

            Tree down on W 5th Avenue near Hollars
            Extension. The left lane is blocked.

&&

JCB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
659 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Clearville         39.92N 78.34W
09/02/2026                   Bedford            PA   911 Call Center

            Wires down on Rock Hill Church Road.

&&

JCB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
701 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SE Everett            39.99N 78.31W
09/02/2026                   Bedford            PA   911 Call Center

            Multiple trees down on Pointer Road.

&&

JCB