Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
316 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little changes for this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain returns to the forecast late today into tonight with
showers and scattered thunderstorms, concentrated across the NW
half of PA. Steady, light to moderate rain Friday night into
Saturday. Lingering risk for a pop up shower in the Laurels
Sunday.

2) Increasing heat risk builds through the middle and latter
part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain returns to the forecast late today into
tonight with showers and scattered thunderstorms, concentrated
across the NW half of PA. Steady, light to moderate rain Friday
night into Saturday. Lingering risk for a pop up shower in the
Laurels Sunday.

Upper level energy and a weak sfc cold front headed our way from
the Ohio Valley and strong diffluent flow moving over the
increasingly moist and unstable llvl environment will lead to an
expanding area of showers/TSRA over Ohio and NW PA. Earlier
clouds, showers and lower sfc Tds in the 50s minimized SFC-
based CAPE across our region so far, but a strong uptick in
convection is expected over the next 1-3 hours across areas
just upstream from our CWA. This convection will move east into
our Western zones mainly after 22Z where SPC's upgraded SLGT
risk for SVR TSRA just nips that part of our CWA.

Rain chances will increase late this evening across the SE half
of the state, but ML CAPE will be steadily diminishing there
with SFC Tds struggling to climb into the 60s.

Patchy fog is possible in the valleys of the north late tonight
into early Fri AM, especially if there is some notable clearing
after the rain moves out.

Another system will make its way into our region with perhaps a
more widespread shield of stratiform rain with embedded/trailing
convection Friday night into Saturday, similar to what we saw
on Monday. However there is still a great deal of model-to-model
and run-to-run spread in timing and location of these convective
features moving across the country, so confidence is low to
medium.

---------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing heat risk builds through the middle
and latter part of next week.

A deep trough settling into the Pacific Northwest and
Intermountain West this weekend will likely result in a
downstream upper ridge developing over the eastern US by early
next week. Blended ensemble guidance driving the prototype
probabilistic Heatrisk is showing a signal for a significant
warmup for Central PA to end June and start July. There is
still spread in ensembles regarding the placement of the upper
level ridge, but there is the potential for high temperatures to
exceed 90 degrees over a large portion of the area towards the
end of the forecast period (Tue-Thu). With humidity also
expected to be on the rise, we may see heat index values
approach 100 degrees by mid to late week, especially in the
lower Susq Valley. Depending on the exact positioning of the
ridge, there may also be some potential for clusters of showers
and thunderstorms moving in from the northwest, but in the
absence of organized convection arriving from upstream, this may
predominantly be a rain-free pattern for a few to several days
starting Sunday. Highest chance for convection is later in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A surface cold front and upper level trough headed our way from
the Ohio Valley will move east into Western and Central PA late
this afternoon and evening producing areas of brief CIG and VSBY
reductions in SHRA/SCT TSRA - mainly acrs the NW half of the
state.

Otherwise we're looking at predominantly VFR conditions through
the first half of tonight.

Showers and storms less likely across the far southeast
sites (MDT, LNS) prior to 06Z Friday.

The area overall is more likely to see more in the way of
a steady light to moderate rain late Friday night into Saturday
morning, as a weak low tracks eastward across far southern PA
or just south of PA.

Outlook...

Friday night-Sat...Restrictions likely in periods of stratiform
rain and a few thunderstorms.

Sun...Mainly VFR with restrictions unlikely in any afternoon
-SHRA.

Mon...Mainly VFR, dry conditions prevail.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Colbert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1045 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042-261445-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Cambria-Somerset-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
1045 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ064>066-261445-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
1045 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hot and humid conditions may result in an increased risk of heat-
related illness during the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063-261445-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
1045 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hot and humid conditions may result in an increased risk of heat-
related illness during the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
434 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

PAZ017-252100-
Clearfield PA-
434 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 434 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
DuBois, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clearfield, Sandy, Curwensville, Hyde, Plymptonville, Rockton, S.B.
Elliot State Park, Grampian, Troutville, and Lumber City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4110 7880 4118 7842 4088 7843 4090 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 267DEG 32KT 4100 7877

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bauco

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
458 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

PAZ017-252145-
Clearfield PA-
458 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CLEARFIELD COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 458 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clearfield, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clearfield, Philipsburg, Woodland, Curwensville, Hyde, Osceola Mills,
Plymptonville, Chester Hill, Jeffries, Lecontes Mills, Morrisdale,
West Decatur, Grampian, Kylertown, Wallaceton, Lumber City, and
Clearfield-Lawrence Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4107 7866 4111 7819 4096 7816 4092 7818
      4091 7822 4089 7822 4088 7825 4087 7824
      4085 7825 4085 7829 4084 7830 4090 7870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 272DEG 27KT 4097 7858

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Bauco