Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
236 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Level 2/5 severe T-storm risk expanded over the southern tier
of central PA for this afternoon and evening

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
are possible across the southern tier/third of central PA this
afternoon and evening

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered severe thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall possible across the southern tier/third of
central PA this afternoon and evening

Our focus this afternoon is on the southern half of the forecast
area as a warm front lifts northward into Pennsylvania. Sfc
dewpoints are projected to surge into the upper 60s to the south
of the front where some cloud breaks should allow for at least
modest destabilization. The moderately sheared and conditionally
moist/unstable convective environment should promote scattered
t-storm ignition into peak diurnal heating. The initial storm
development is expected to evolve into forward propagating
clusters with a strong to locally damaging wind threat. As
convection intercepts the northward moving warm front over the
southern tier of CPA, locally backed flow and more favorable low
level shear may support the development of at least transient
supercells with some tornado potential. SPC has expanded the
level 2/5 slight risk to include the entire southern tier/third
of CPA (areas near and south of US-22) along with corresponding
severe wind and 2% tornado probs.

Heavy rainfall will also be a concern with pwat values between
1.5 and 2 inches. This is around the 95th percentile for this
time of year and would support intense rain rates perhaps as
high as 2-3"/hr. A warm cloud depth in excess of 11,000 feet
and tall, skinny CAPE profiles also support a heavy rain signal.
WPC has maintained a level 2/4 slight risk for excessive
rainfall (ERO) over roughly the southern third of the forecast
area where isolated instances of flash flooding will be
possible, particularly in training/repeat storms over urban
areas. The two limiting factors going against a more considerable
flash flood threat are the ongoing dryness/drought conditions
focused over the LSV and fairly progressive storm motions.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Drier conditions are expected for the middle of the week as
high pressure builds into Pennsylvania, though there is an
increasing signal for light rain to hang around for much of the
day on Tuesday across eastern PA as a wave of low pressure
develops along a cold front to our southeast. A slight warming
trend is expected, with high temperatures expected to be in the
70s and low 80s through the end of the week. An upper level
disturbance moving through the region on Thursday and Friday
will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms to
Central PA, though there are still some timing differences in
the models as to when rain will be most likely.

Temperatures continue to warm up into the weekend, with most of
the area expected to see highs in the 80s by Sunday. A major
pattern change upstream over the Pacific/Intermountain West this
weekend could spell a return of more typical hot and humid
conditions to close out June and begin July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure and a warm front are tracking through the
Commonwealth today and bringing rain, the possibility of
thunderstorms, and widespread restrictions in the near term and
overnight.

The initial wave of showers is moving off to the east and
redevelopment is occurring in SW PA in the form of scattered
showers. While exact timing is uncertain regarding how long any
showers/thunderstorms will persist in any region, these storms
are likely to, in some capacity, restrict all airfields with
the lowest confidence in Bradford.

Visibility restrictions to IFR is possible with any of the
showers or storms that pass through, given robust moisture in
place, along with MVFR cloud bases with some potential for IFR
bases. Ceilings overall will lower as the day progresses into
night though even after convection has left our area. IFR
restrictions from these ceilings are expected across the whole
area spreading north to south as the evening/night progresses.
The best chance for overnight LIFR at this time is at BFD and
JST.

Visibility restrictions are anticipated as well. Cloud cover is
likely to preclude widespread prevailing fog below IFR
threshold. Mist though is expected with all of the lingering
moisture which will see likely lead to restrictions as well,
mostly in the MVFR category at this time. However with such
robust moisture in place, widespread drops in visibility further
into IFR cannot be ruled out.

Conditions will improve starting around 12Z tomorrow at BFD and
spread eastward in the form of visibilities improving and
ceilings moving up as clouds show signs of thinning.

Outlook...

Tue...Lower chances of showers, mainly VFR.

Wed...Mainly VFR, dry conditions expected

Thu...Restrictions possible in another round of
evening/overnight precipitation

Fri...Restrictions possible in another round of daytime/evening
showers.

Sat...Restrictions possible in another round of showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
5th driest June 2026 (MTD) on record (of 132 years) at
Williamsport with total monthly precip 0.73"

9th warmest average high temperature of 84.4 degrees at
Harrisburg for June 2026 (MTD) on record (of 138 years)
10th driest June 2026 (MTD) on record at Harrisburg with total
monthly precip of 0.58"

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bauco
AVIATION...Lambert/Lambrech
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
459 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

PAZ004-005-232100-
Warren-McKean-
459 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-232100-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
459 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ058-232100-
Schuylkill-
459 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with some
conditional or non zero tornado potential.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-232100-
Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
459 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
353 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

PAZ066-222030-
Lancaster PA-
353 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LANCASTER COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Akron, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Ephrata, New Holland, Akron, Leola, Paradise, Denver,
Reamstown, Rothsville, Strasburg, Adamstown, Terre Hill, Churchtown,
Leacock, Bareville, Bowmansville, Reinholds, Lampeter, Intercourse,
and Fivepointville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4011 7593 4010 7594 4005 7594 3996 7619
      4007 7632 4029 7610 4014 7587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 228DEG 37KT 4009 7618

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bauco