Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1051 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Tweaked overnight PoPs with upstream convection inbound.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional storms are expected overnight.

2) Humid with rounds of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
focused over southwest Pennsylvania through midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Additional storms are expected overnight.

Big convective complex rolling through OH at 1030PM, and making
moves for SWrn PA. While our area will get clipped by these
storms, the stable low levels here should preclude severe wind.
Heavy rain is likely where they do fall. So, flash flooding may
be a threat for the latter half of tonight, but the majority of
guidance takes the most-organized and heaviest precip just
south of the CWA. NAM12 and RAP13 did well last night/early Mon
AM with the progression of storms then. Leaning on those
solutions right now yields a cluster of storms arriving in a few
hours over the SW and spreading N and E a bit before fizzling.

-----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Humid with rounds of heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms focused over southwest Pennsylvania through
midweek

Model trends are focusing primary risk for severe storms and
heavy rain across southwest PA on Tuesday. This area lies
closest to the equatorward edge of the westerlies within very
moist instability gradient. SPC and WPC have outlooked this
area (SW PA) with a a level 2/5 severe storm risk and 2/4
excessive rain risk.

Rounds of showers and storms remain possible through midweek.
Multiple shortwave disturbances will traverse the northern tier
and interact with a slow moving frontal zone. The combination
of rich low level moisture, instability and repeated forcing
along the boundary will support some potential for periodic
clusters of storms with locally heavy rainfall. WPC excessive
rain outlooks (EROs) have shifted farther to the south/west and
only clip the far southwest portion of the CWA on days 3-5 or
Wed-Fri.

The end of the week into the start of the weekend looks less
humid (more refreshing) as push of relatively cooler and drier
air accompanies seasonably strong/Canadian high pressure
building southeast from the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few showers linger in Central PA, but any isolated overnight
-RA is most likely from upslope effects at JST and BFD.

Conditions will waffle between MVFR and VFR this evening through
the overnight hours as low level moisture remains over the
area. Patchy -RA is possible over the higher elevation airfields
through the morning hours. Widespread fog development and IFR
visibilities is only confident at BFD. Elsewhere, low level
moisture content may be enough for some mist and some MVFR
visibilities, but confidence isn't high enough for anything
lower at this time.

MVFR conditions continues into the morning with an improvement
to VFR in the later morning/early afternoon. Isolated to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible, but confidence
isn't high enough for impacts at any one site yet, restrictions
are possible though. Storms moving in from the northwest may
cause restrictions towards the end of the forecast period at
JST and AOO.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Scattered showers/storms. Restrictions possible.

Fri...Mainly VFR. A few showers or storms possible over
southwestern PA.

Sat...Mainly VFR. Isolated shower/storms possible in the
afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambrech/Tyburski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
608 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-112215-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
608 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are possible Tuesday and
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-112215-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
608 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms with strong to severe wind gusts and locally heavy
rain are possible Tuesday. Heavy rain is also possible on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1129 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

PAZ033-110430-
Somerset PA-
1129 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SOMERSET
COUNTY THROUGH 1230 AM EDT...

At 1126 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking several strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Uniontown to 13 miles
southeast of Connellsville to near Bittinger. These storms will
train across the same portions of southern Somerset County bringing
between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain between 1130 pm and 1230 AM.
Movement was east southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Meyersdale, Ursina, Mount Davis, Confluence, Salisbury, Garrett,
Addison, Wellersburg, Casselman, and Callimont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and
may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7938 3973 7941 3977 7938 3978 7939
      3979 7938 3978 7935 3980 7937 3982 7937
      3985 7942 3990 7940 3993 7938 3988 7910
      3973 7880 3972 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 284DEG 31KT 3995 7967 3985 7946 3969 7933

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1223 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

PAZ033-034-110515-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-
1223 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND SOUTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM EDT...

At 1222 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking several strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Connellsville to 16 miles
southwest of Somerset to 11 miles northwest of Frostburg. These
storms will train across the same portions of southern Somerset
County bringing an additional 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain between 1230
AM and 130 AM. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Meyersdale, Ursina, New Centerville, Mount Davis, Lake Gordon,
Rockwood, Confluence, Salisbury, Garrett, Addison, Wellersburg,
Casselman, Callimont, and Seven Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7941 3977 7938 3978 7939 3979 7938
      3978 7935 3980 7937 3982 7937 3986 7942
      3999 7933 4004 7928 3983 7874 3973 7863
      3972 7938
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 301DEG 32KT 3996 7963 3989 7934 3978 7907

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lambert