Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
224 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes. Continuing to monitor flash flooding
  and severe storm potential through the evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential for heavy rain/localized flooding and isolated
strong to severe storms this afternoon into tonight

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential for heavy rain/localized flooding this
afternoon into tonight

12hr rainfall through noon EDT was generally 0.50-1.50 falling to
the west of US-15. This has lead to some pre-saturation which
could play a factor if additional heavy rain develops over these
areas.

Extensive cloud cover and time of day contributed to higher
stability and effectively capped max rainfall rates below 1"/hr.
The environment has been undergoing some modest destablization
into the afternoon with thermodynamic mesoanalysis depicting
SB/MLCAPE values on the rise with plenty of moisture available
(1.5-2.2" PWAT). The destabilizing boundary layer interacting
with a positively titled shortwave trough extending from Lower
MI southwestward into the Mid-South will result in expanding
coverage of heavy showers/t-storms with more intense rain rates
which should lead to increasing flash flood potential through
the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours. Breaks in the
clouds particularly entering the western part of the CWA could
also spell an uptick in t-storm intensity and potential for
isolated strong to severe storms. WPC and SPC made very little
to no changes to the 16/1630Z updates to the ERO and SWO for
the rest of today. Cluster of storms with heavy rain working
northward from DC/northern MD into the Lower Susquehanna Valley
also is worth watching for more of an urban flash flood threat
(given less compromised FFG) and low-topped spins. Expect heavy
showers and storms to slowly progress eastward through tonight
and can't rule out some localized runoff issues outside the
watch area farther to the east through the Susquehanna Valley.

For now, the best heavy rain/severe wx signal is to the south
and east of CPA tomorrow/Monday. Heading into the work week,
latest model QPF data now favors a possible break in the rain
through early week before daily shower/t-storm chances return
Wed-Fri. Some localized heavy rain and marginal flooding risk
will continue into late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 18Z, showers are continuing to traverse central PA
providing restrictions, particularly in embedded heavy
downpours that restrict visibility. Over the next few hours,
this round of precipitation will exit most TAF sites. This
indicates a respite in IFR conditions in between rounds of
precipitation where a few hours of MVFR restrictions may be
favored in the afternoon. BFD remains most likely to prevail
IFR, but some lifting to MVFR remains possible there too in
this window.

Cloud breaks are being noted south of the Mason-Dixon Line and
in eastern Ohio, which is allowing for some convective storm
development in those areas. Have placed TEMPO groups in where
the most confident timing is for potential thunderstorms at BFD,
JST, AOO, and UNV. Confidence in exact timing remains lower at
MDT and LNS so opted for PROB30s for thunderstorm mentions,
although amendments may be necessary as real time development is
observed. Gusty winds may accompany the strongest cores of
precipitation that develop region wide, as well as visibility
restrictions due to heavy rain.

Precipitation should mostly clear by 06Z but restrictions down
to IFR are likely to follow region-wide. Latest guidance
indicates LIFR appears most likely at BFD, JST, UNV, and IPT.
These IFR conditions are likely to linger to daybreak at most
TAF sites before MVFR becomes the favored regime later tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Unsettled through midweek with daily chances for
showers and isolated t-storms. Low VFR to MVFR conditions
prevailing most of the time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are a few key climate callouts to wrap up July 2026:

2nd wettest at Bradford (7.78"/+3.62" above normal)

6th wettest at Altoona (6.18"/+2.70" above normal)

10th wettest at State College (6.09"/+2.30" above normal)

6th most # of days with maxT >=100F at Harrisburg (3)
T3rd most # of days with maxT >=100F at Williamsport (2)

In August, the daylength decreases by 2-2.5 min/day with a
total loss of ~ 70 minutes by the end of the month.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ004>006-010>012-017-
018-024-025-033-034.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambrech
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
401 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-041-042-045-046-049-
032015-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
401 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ026>028-035>037-050>053-056>059-063>066-032015-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
401 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated swaths of heavy rain may result in localized flash flooding
tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts
are possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Colbert

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
442 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     Flash Flood      2 N Garden View         41.28N 77.05W
08/02/2026                   Lycoming           PA   911 Call Center

            Several inches of water across road at 2900
            Lycoming Creek Rd.

&&

MRC