Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
245 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*Increasing confidence in the return of hot and humid pattern
 for the middle of next week

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated flash flood risk through this evening

2) Hot and humid pattern set to return for the middle of next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated flash flood risk through this evening

Scattered thunderstorms have increased in earnest in response
to surface heating and destabilization. Locally heavy rainfall
is contributing to flash flood potential that should continue
through 00Z/8p this evening.

The storms are located in several clusters from northwestern
Ohio through central Pennsylvania. The storms are located south
of a front over Lake Erie and are in an airmass characterized by
1.5-1.8 inch PW values and ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting robust
updrafts with locally heavy rainfall. MRMS estimated of 1-1.5
inch/hr have already been noted, which isn't surprising given
modest steering flow aloft (supporting 10-20 kt storm movement).
Flash flooding is likely on at least an isolated basis in the
short term - especially in spots of highly sensitive to
compromised soils in complex terrain with FFG thresholds below
1 inch/hr.

The ongoing flash flood risk focused primarily over west-central
PA will continue to expand slightly eastward in response to
peak heating/destabilization through the afternoon. The risk
will primarily be diurnally driven and may lessen gradually with
loss of surface heating after sunset. Isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding are expected, with several areas of
storm cell mergers supporting local peaks of 2 inch/hr rain
rates and spots of 3 inch rainfall totals.

While the primary threat with storms this afternoon will be
locally heavy rain and flash flood potential, we still can't
rule out an occasional strong to locally damaging wind gust.

Focus for locally heavy t-storms shifts to the southern half to
1/3 of central PA on Saturday. Meanwhile, much drier/less humid
air will filter into northern PA and be a harbinger for a more
pleasant end to the weekend/start to next week.

---------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot and humid pattern set to return for the
middle of next week

Dry conditions are expected to prevail for the first half of
the week with a strong ridge expected to develop over the middle
of the country. Increasing heat/humidity is forecast across
central Pennsylvania although there remains some uncertainty
with respect to how warm temperatures and/or humidity get across
the region. Current forecast favors the hottest temps returning
Tue to Thu with highs 85-95F and max heat index 90-100F. Rain
chances increase into the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR will be interrupted by bouts of heavy t-storm
rain and associated MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions through
23-24Z timeframe. We continue to utilize the PROB30 to account
for the relatively brief drops in flight category.

Partial clearing, light winds, and residual low level moisture
from previous rains will favor areas of fog and low clouds
developing overnight into early Saturday. MVFR to IFR conditions
are probable at most TAF sites roughly from 05-13Z Saturday.

Another round of diurnally driven t-storms are likely over the
southern half to 1/3 of the airspace Saturday afternoon. Fog is
likely to develop again Saturday night into early Sunday
morning.

Outlook...

Sun-Wed...Mainly VFR with areas of late night/AM fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ010-011-
017>019-024>026-033-034.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

PAZ004>006-012-027-028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-111700-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Northern Clinton-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-
Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated areas of flash flooding and damaging wind gusts are possible
this afternoon into the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ010-011-017>019-024>026-033-034-111700-
Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-
Huntingdon-Somerset-Bedford-
100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

MRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
230 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     Flood            1 WNW State College     40.79N 77.87W
07/10/2026                   Centre             PA   Public

            Several inches of water ponding on North
            Atherton Street adjacent to the Penn State
            Campus near the bus station.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     Flood            Lewistown               40.59N 77.57W
07/10/2026                   Mifflin            PA   Emergency Mngr

            Ponding of water on the roadway in the
            vicinity of East Charles Avenue and South
            Main Street.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
409 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

PAZ024-025-102045-
Blair PA-Cambria PA-
409 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BLAIR AND NORTHEASTERN
CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 409 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Altoona, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Hollidaysburg, Northern Cambria, Lakemont, Bellwood, Patton,
Gallitzin, Hastings, Duncansville, Tipton, Carrolltown, Horseshoe
Curve, Sinking Valley, Prince Gallitzin State Park, Canoe Creek State
Park, Tunnelhill, Ashville, Chest Springs, Peoples Natural Gas Field,
and Penn State Altoona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4072 7880 4073 7856 4059 7818 4056 7820
      4054 7817 4035 7837 4069 7883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 308DEG 17KT 4064 7857

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bowen