Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1253 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*Flood Watch expanded across the southern tier of central PA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Locally significant flash flooding possible across portions
of south central PA this afternoon and evening

2) Unsettled weather continues into the first half of the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally significant flash flooding possible
across portions of south central PA this afternoon and evening

Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage this
afternoon across southern PA. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are
likely at times, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally higher
amounts possible.

Synoptic ascent associated with shortwave lifting E/NE out of
KY is working in tandem with RRQ of a modest jet streak aloft
robust thermodynamics reflected by PWs measured via the 12Z
soundings that are near previous daily records (2.17" at IAD)
and a ribbon of MLCAPE already reaching 1000+ J/kg (2000 J/kg
within clearing sky conditions). MRMS hourly rainfall have been
above 1 inch in some areas, indicative of the impressive heavy
rain environment in place. Earlier this morning, rainfall rates
of ~1.5"/hr where achieved via ground truth report from
broadcast media partner - so rates >2" should be easily
attainable given the time of day and copious amount of moisture
available. WPC excessive rainfall outlook continues to favor a
"high-end" level 2/4 flash flood risk over the southern tier of
central PA where locally significant/urban flash flooding is
possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unsettled weather continues into the first half
of the weekend.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday
ahead of a cold front that will slowly cross the region into
Saturday. Isolated flash flooding will be the primary concern
as the environment will still be supportive of very heavy
rainfall. A few showers remain possible on Saturday across the
southern half of the area as the cold front will be very slow to
move to our south. Sunday looks like a much drier day as the
front finally moves off to the south and a strong ridge develops
over the middle of the country.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flying across south central PA may be interrupted and
restricted by showers and thunderstorms through 00Z Fri.
Storms will be capable of torrential rainfall likely resulting
in IFR/LIFR visibility. Gusty winds are also possible.

In the wake of this storms, partial clearing along with residual
low level moisture from recent rainfall and light/variable wind
may lead to areas of fog and low stratus developing late
tonight into early Friday morning. Expect sub-VFR restrictions
to improve to VFR by Friday afternoon with more scattered
showers and storms possible.

Outlook...

Sat...Reduced chance and more limited coverage of PM showers/t-storm.

Sun-Tue...Mainly VFR/no sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ033>036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1228 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-101630-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
1228 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ017>019-024>028-049>053-058-101630-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Schuylkill-
1228 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are possible this
afternoon into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066-101630-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
1228 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
230 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

PAZ066-091915-
Lancaster PA-
230 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 230 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lancaster, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Lititz, Millersville, Willow Street, New Holland, East
Petersburg, Akron, Leola, Paradise, Rothsville, Strasburg, Gap,
Churchtown, Leacock, Bareville, Lampeter, Atglen, Intercourse,
Christiana, and Blue Ball.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4013 7589 4010 7594 4008 7593 4004 7594
      3996 7599 3993 7598 3993 7600 3988 7599
      3999 7639 4016 7634 4014 7589
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 280DEG 16KT 4006 7628

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Steinbugl

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