Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
643 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Guidance is in good agreement this morning that a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms over Mexico, currently seen on radar and
satellite, will move eastward across South Texas this morning and
afternoon. There remains a marginal risk of severe storms,
primarily for damaging winds and large hail, as well as a slight
(level 2 of 4) risk of flash flooding. A large swath of the
Coastal Bend will see convection around noon with most of the
rainfall clearing by 6 PM this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms Saturday

-Flood Watch in effect area-wide through Monday as multiple rounds
of storms bring a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding each
day.

-Risk of river flooding this weekend with more rounds of storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

As of 11:20 PM, we are monitoring a couple at areas with storms.
There is a line of storms that continues tracking southwards
towards our CWA. Concurrently, we also have a couple of storms to
the south in tracking north and west of our area in Mexico
tracking southeast. If the the storms combine and grow upscale we
could be dealing a unfavorable scenario. Will continue to monitor
this overnight. The likely timeframe for convection to begin will
be around 12-13Z beginning out west and tracking east. Guidance
has a cluster of storms congealing into a line of storms and
progressing to east through the day. Some clustering of storms
around the line will still be likely leading to widespread heavy
rainfall across the area. With the above normal moisture present,
very efficient rainfall rates will be expected. This will allow
for a continued threat for flash flooding given anteceding
conditions of already saturated soils. While there is a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms today, as previously mentioned given
the abundance of cloud cover it will be a little more difficult
for storms to become strong to severe. It won't be out of the
question however, will monitor this threat through the day.
Majority of the region remains in slight risk for excessive
rainfall. The expected totals with storms today will likely be in
the neighborhood of 2-3 inches, though locally higher amounts will
be possible. Activity will linger through Sunday afternoon as a
disturbance/potential surface low will gradually progress to the
east.

We will continue to monitor our next chance of rain, which will
likely be around the middle of next week. This could lead to
another round of heavy rain producing showers and storms further
increasing potential flooding concerns given already saturated
soils. As of this cycle, WPC has outlooked all of South Texas in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. Be sure to check back for future updates as this is still
days out. Temperatures will be in the 80s through the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The lack of convection during the early morning hours allowed for
low ceilings to develop over the inland Coastal Plains, impacting
ALI with IFR/LIFR ceilings and VCT with MVFR ceilings, as well as
COT. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms on the Mexico side of
the Rio Grande is slowly moving eastward and will continue through
South Texas through this morning and afternoon. TEMPOs have been
updated to reflect greatest timeframe for direct terminal impacts.
There is a marginal risk of severe storms, posing a threat for
damaging winds and large hail. Outside of gusty downpours, winds
should be generally light out of the east to southeast around 10
knots or less. Rain chances decreases this evening and not
confident enough to include in the forecast at this time as much
will be dependent on the progression of storms through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Gentle to moderate E-SE winds will prevail today through the
weekend over the waters. Brief periods of gusty and erratic winds
(and elevated seas) will be possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will be high (60-80%) Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  72  84  72 /  80  70  50  20
Victoria          85  68  83  68 /  70  60  50  30
Laredo            86  70  89  71 /  70  20  10  30
Alice             85  70  85  69 /  80  60  40  10
Rockport          88  74  87  74 /  70  70  60  30
Cotulla           86  68  88  70 /  70  40  10  10
Kingsville        84  71  85  70 /  80  60  40  10
Navy Corpus       86  75  85  76 /  70  60  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ229>234-239>247-
     342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...EMF/94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1106 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

TXZ242-243-342-343-442-231645-
Inland Nueces TX-Kleberg Islands TX-Coastal Nueces TX-
Coastal Kleberg TX-Inland Kleberg TX-
1106 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NUECES AND KLEBERG
COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM CDT...

At 1106 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Driscoll to 7 miles west of
Bishop to near Kingsville Naval Air Station to near Riviera Beach.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsville, Robstown, Driscoll, Bishop, Riviera Beach, Ricardo,
Banquete, Malaquite Beach, Riviera, Kingsville Naval Air Station,
Petronila, Loyola Beach, Chapman Ranch, and North San Pedro.

This includes US Highway 77 between mile markers 672 and 708.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2724 9763 2728 9765 2726 9773 2728 9776
      2728 9778 2724 9784 2725 9798 2756 9798
      2764 9796 2764 9794 2772 9794 2787 9775
      2751 9723 2724 9735 2728 9735 2727 9738
      2724 9737 2724 9740 2726 9745 2723 9754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 230DEG 26KT 2769 9790 2761 9792 2746 9783 2727
9764

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1110 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

TXZ231>233-231715-
Live Oak TX-Bee TX-Goliad TX-
1110 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GOLIAD...CENTRAL LIVE OAK AND
NORTHERN BEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...

At 1110 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Cestohowa to near Mineral
to near River Creek Acres. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beeville, Goliad, Mineral, Ander, Berclair, Weesatche, Weser, Nell,
Tulsita, Karon, Normanna, Oakville, Pettus, Pawnee, Tuleta, and
Charco.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 37 between mile markers 58 and 65.
 US Highway 281 near mile marker 630.
 US Highway 181 between mile markers 572 and 592.
 US Highway 183 between mile markers 626 and 650.
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 660 and 698.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2888 9731 2886 9730 2862 9728 2842 9744
      2834 9815 2852 9808 2876 9814 2879 9810
      2869 9801 2872 9792 2867 9782 2867 9778
      2892 9742
TIME...MOT...LOC 1610Z 262DEG 34KT 2897 9784 2855 9785 2833 9799

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1143 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

TXZ232-233-244-246-231730-
Inland San Patricio TX-Bee TX-Inland Refugio TX-Goliad TX-
1143 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SAN PATRICIO...
SOUTHEASTERN GOLIAD...WESTERN REFUGIO AND SOUTHEASTERN BEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1143 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Berclair to 8 miles
southwest of Blanconia to near Skidmore to near Papalote to near West
Sinton. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beeville, Refugio, Woodsboro, Skidmore, St. Paul, Quintana, Papalote,
Blanconia, and Tynan.

This includes the following highways...
 US Highway 181 between mile markers 592 and 614.
 US Highway 183 between mile markers 650 and 668.
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 694 and 698.
 US Highway 77 between mile markers 612 and 640.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2862 9728 2835 9713 2810 9743 2805 9776
      2827 9771 2840 9778
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 234DEG 32KT 2849 9768 2835 9754 2831 9766 2822
9763 2808 9771

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AE

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