Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
657 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Dangerous swimming conditions with a high risk of rip currents
  along the Middle Texas Coast through this week

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms Tuesday
  night into Wednesday morning

- Marginal Risk of (level 1 of 4) Flash Flooding due excessive
  rainfall from Tuesday night through Saturday morning with a
  Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) Thursday for the northern Coastal
  Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

After several dry days since our last rain event, a wetter
pattern will begin tomorrow night and continue through the end of
the week. A series of repeating mid-level shortwaves will pass
over South Texas through this week as a more potent trough or
cutoff mid-level low develops over northern Mexico and moves
eastward into Texas. Near climatological max moisture in
combination of these disturbances, will promote showers and
thunderstorms daily with the potential for heavy rainfall. While
things could still change, the most likely scenario will be for
2-3" across the Brush Country and northern Coastal Plains and 1-2"
across the the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. High end
rainfall totals (10% chance of reaching these values) will be 4-5"
across the Brush Country and northern Coastal Plains and 3-4"
across the the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Therefore,
the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas
for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Flooding from Tuesday
night through Saturday morning with a Slight Risk (level 2 or 4)
for the  Coastal Plains Thursday. Apart from that, the Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Tuesday night
with the primary hazards being strong winds and secondary hazard
of large hail.

Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds
warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming
conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for
minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning during high tide.
We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup
we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

MVFR ceilings have pushed there way into the Coastal Plains this
evening, already impacting CRP/ALI/VCT. These ceilings will
continue to spread westward through the overnight into morning
hours. There is a low to medium chance for occasional IFR
ceilings. Light showers lingering from storms originating in
Mexico are dissipating as they make it into the Brush Country,
enough to mention VCSH and TEMPO over LRD. I've added PROB30s for
CRP/ALI/VCT for when these spotty showers could extend and make it
later tonight. Southeasterly winds will be sustained 10-15 knots
tonight, increasing through the day tomorrow at a sustained 14-20
knots with gusts to around 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected to continue through Tuesday
morning which will cause a continuation of our current Small Craft
Advisory. Winds will relax to a moderate breeze (BF 4) Tuesday
morning and continue through the end of the work week. Medium
chances (50-60%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
night through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60-
80%) Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  90  79  89 /  20  10  60  30
Victoria          77  91  75  88 /  10  10  60  50
Laredo            79  99  76  94 /  20  10  60  40
Alice             79  94  77  91 /  20  10  60  30
Rockport          80  90  79  89 /  20   0  60  30
Cotulla           78  97  74  91 /  20   0  60  50
Kingsville        80  92  78  90 /  20  10  60  30
Navy Corpus       81  87  80  87 /  10  10  60  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...EMF/94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1020 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

TXZ239-190415-
Webb TX-
1020 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WEBB COUNTY THROUGH
1115 PM CDT...

At 1020 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Chupadera Ranch Airport, or 35 miles south of El
Indio, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chupadera Ranch Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2820 10017 2820 9964 2798 9996 2800 9999
      2803 10001 2807 10002 2809 10005 2810 10005
      2812 10007 2815 10008 2817 10014 2817 10016
      2818 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 227DEG 20KT 2802 10014

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

AE

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